KS Sen GE 2020, Bollier vs Kobach, Rate It

[MT Treasurer]

Titanium R. Republicans couldn’t possibly lose a Senate race in a red state in the Trump era of record polarization, KS isn’t trending Democratic at all, Trump being on the ballot will guarantee a R hold here, polling showing Kobach trailing Bollier is obviously manipulated, etc.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R. Yes, this would be the ideal matchup for Democrats, but this is KS we’re talking about.

You also had AL-SEN 2017 and KY-GOV 2019 as Safe R, so yeah... (and LA-GOV 2015 as Lean R, IIRC).

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R. Yes, this would be the ideal matchup for Democrats, but this is KS we’re talking about.

You also had AL-SEN 2017 and KY-GOV 2019 as Safe R, so yeah... (and LA-GOV 2015 as Lean R, IIRC).

Kobach isn’t quite comparable to Moore, and this isn’t a gubernatorial race. (I had LA-GOV 2015 as Lean D once I knew it would be Edwards vs. Vitter.)

WV-SEN 2018, MT-SEN 2018, OH-SEN 2018, AL-SEN 2017, etc. were gubernatorial races? And Kobach doesn’t need to be as awful of a candidate as Moore in a state far less Republican than Alabama.

Then again, people here think Joni Ernst is more likely to lose than Kris Kobach.

[MT Treasurer]

Likely R. While I think this race could become more competitive due to the state's trends and especially Kobach as the GOP nominee, a Democratic Senator from Kansas is something I really have to see to believe. Right now I'd probably say it would result in a single-digit Kobach victory.

The state has had competitive Senate races before (e.g. 1996, 2014), it’s just that Republicans have gotten lucky in all of them (Dole being the nominee in 1996 helped Brownback a lot, 2014 being a GOP wave year obviously helped Roberts).

Fun fact: Bob Dole won his second Senate race in 1974 by less than 2 points.

[MT Treasurer]

IA and OH may be getting more and more Republican, but they’re not yet as Republican as KS

I wasn’t talking about the presidential level but about the Senate races in those states. Assuming that Kobach is more likely to win than Ernst just because Trump will probably win KS by more than IA is foolish. Candidate quality definitely still matters in red states, and split-ticket voting still exists. MO was way more Republican than WI in 2016, yet Blunt did worse than Ron Johnson (something pretty much no one predicted or would have thought possible).