Name a current Atlas trope that really, really, really won't age well

[MT Treasurer]

Probably most if not all of them, but off the top of my head:

- FL is Lean/Likely R, eSpEcIaLlY wItH wArReN oR sAnDeRs
- GA is Likely R (what Mikado said)
- TX is Likely/Safe R (what Mikado said)
- IA will vote 5-10 points to the left of OH
- AZ is Lean R
- MI will be several points more Democratic than PA/MI is Lean D even as PA is a Tossup or Tilt R
- MI-PRES 2020 = IN-PRES 2012
- NV is a Tossup/more likely to vote for Trump than MI/ME/MN
- Trump couldn’t possibly lose VA by double digits because Republicans still have a high floor there or whatever

[MT Treasurer]

For all the Georgia skeptics...

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1179022624665550848

I honestly think it’s laughable that GA still isn’t considered a top-tier battleground state by most people.

[MT Treasurer]

I honestly think it’s laughable that GA still isn’t considered a top-tier battleground state by most people.

Obviously it's because Democrats have a hard ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 48.8%, even lower than their ceiling of 49.93% in Florida.

48.8% and 49.93%

in a D+8/D+9 year.

[MT Treasurer]

You say this mockingly, but the fact that Democrats lost an open seat gubernatorial race in a great national environment in the election election cycle immediately preceding 2020 is a very strong piece of evidence that GA isn't quite a top-tier swing state yet.

The national environment/popular vote should always be taken into consideration, yes, but is this the kind of state which swings wildly depending on changes in the national environment/overall popular vote?

Republican percentages in high-profile races since 2012:

2012 (very good year for Democrats): 53.3%
2014 (extremely good year for Republicans): 52.7%/52.8%
2016 (very good year for Republicans): 50.4%
2018 (Democratic wave): 50.2%

Notice the downward trend. There’s also the fact that an outspokenly liberal black woman only lost the state by a point while receiving 48.8% of the vote, which would have been unthinkable in the Democratic wave of 2006. Any way you look at it, this state is a ticking time bomb for Republicans, and it’ll go off sooner rather than later.