35-40%, mostly because Democrats are way undervalued in AZ, MT, AL, NC, TX, and to a lesser extent GA. I think they’re being overestimated in IA, MI, and ME, though.
Why NC? It seems like most people here consider the race a Toss-Up, or at most Tilt/Lean R.
It seems like many people are assuming that Trump needs to lose the presidency or even lose NC for Tillis to lose his seat, but I could easily see him losing even if Trump wins the state and the presidency. This idea that every state must vote for the same party for president and Senate just because it (barely) happened in 2016 is ludicrous. Tillis really can’t afford to underperform Trump given how close NC will likely be in the presidential race, but like Mizzouian said, all signs point to him underperforming the top of the ticket. He’s a far weaker incumbent than Burr, and Jackson is definitely a stronger candidate than Deborah Ross or Kay Hagan.
