LA-Remington (Abraham internal): JBE +11 first round, +6/+2 head-to-head

[MT Treasurer]

Meaningless because polarization is such an unstoppable force, Trump will campaign for his opponent, state is inelastic, Deep South, it’s Louisiana, name recognition, racist hicks, etc.

Likely R.

[MT Treasurer]

A Manchin 2018 style narrow win for Edwards seems to be where this is heading in the end.

Big differences between this race and WV-SEN, if you ask me. It’s going to be awfully difficult for Trump to nationalize a gubernatorial election in LA or for the RGA tie JBE to the national party (the guy is as close to a generic D/Pelosi as Larry Hogan is to a generic R/Trump), and the black and New Orleans vote alone means Democrats have a much higher floor in LA than in WV. You combine that with how well Democrats have been performing in most off-off year elections since Trump took office, and it’s hard to argue that this isn’t at least Lean D.

I’m predicting a 56-44 JBE win or something close to that.