AL-SEN: It’s Tuberville

[MT Treasurer]

Yellowhammer and Indy, who do you think is favored in the R primary, especially if Byrne runs? I’d rather they didn’t nominate Moore or Zeigler because this seat is a must-win for Republicans no matter how you slice it.

[MT Treasurer]

Yellowhammer and Indy, who do you think is favored in the R primary, especially if Byrne runs? I’d rather they didn’t nominate Moore or Zeigler because this seat is a must-win for Republicans no matter how you slice it.

I'd rather they didn't nominate Moore, period. And that's an understatement.

Moore obviously was a terrible candidate, but Zeigler and that loser Strange could certainly blow it as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Probably better. Maybe he’ll lose, but declaring every red state/congressional district Democrat/Democratic candidate DOA because of "polarization" and "inelasticity" is one of Atlas's favorite pastimes (unless their name is McCaskill or Donnelly).

[MT Treasurer]

Three threads merged, hence the title.

Declaring red state Democrats DOA is Atlas's favorite pastime.

[MT Treasurer]

Three threads merged, hence the title.

Declaring red state Democrats DOA is Atlas's favorite pastime.

Odd...I remember a ton of "Nelson's not going to lose, obviously. An incumbent Senator never loses in a wave year! Stop buying Scott's hype" last year when a bunch of us were (correctly) saying that Scott was going to win.

Oh true, this forum was wayyy too bullish on Senate Democrats's chances in 2018, but since then it’s been all doom and gloom.

[MT Treasurer]

Roy Moore would still beat Doug Jones

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/politics/alabama-exit-polls/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.5191533ed794

Trumps approval on ED in 2017 was 48 48 due to turnout.


I got a bridge to sell if you believe trump's approval on ED will be tied in freaking AL

Yeah, because incumbency advantage isn’t a thing?

[MT Treasurer]

Jones wins 49-47. Yes, it’s a presidential year, but the NRSC wouldn’t support him, he’d most likely still run an awful campaign, and Jones probably gets a very slight incumbency advantage bump.

[MT Treasurer]

The people that are writing Moore Jones off now are the same ones that wrote him off in 2017

[MT Treasurer]

I doubt Moore wins the runoff, the "inevitable Senator Moore" takes are way over the top and Senator Moore remains a very unlikely scenario-if it was going to happen 2017 was probably the chance. It's not impossible, but it's not the most likely outcome or even a particularly likely one.

You basically hit the nail on the head. I’d also add that these takes are coming from the same people who thought AL-SEN 2017 was Safe R.

[MT Treasurer]

Are Madison and Mobile counties Tilt/Lean D regardless of the R nominee? Maddox kept it pretty close without the attention and money Jones will have.

Jones isn’t going to lose Madison against any Republican, but Mobile is probably only Tilt or Lean D with Byrne.

[MT Treasurer]

This is a Tossup at best for Republicans with Moore, but Lean/Likely R without Moore. You’d think Republicans would have learned not to make overconfident predictions after one humiliating loss after another in red states, but apparently not. Can’t say I’m surprised.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans: Yeah, Moore might be a pedophile and a sexual predator, but Jones has a (D) next to his name and D bad.

Get ready for Senator Moore, folks.

Yeah we know, that’s what you said in 2017...

Last time they had a humiliating loss in a red state was in 2012 and even then IN is not AL.

WV-SEN 2018 should have never been lost, AL-SEN 2017 should have never been lost, KS-SEN 2014/MO-SEN 2016/MO-SEN 2018 shouldn’t have been close, MT-SEN 2018/OH-SEN 2018 should have been more competitive, etc.

[MT Treasurer]

I HATE MOORE !

BECAUSE OF YOU, DIRTY ROY, ALABAMA HAS A DEMOCRATIC SENATOR !! GO F**K YOURSELF STUPID ASHOLE

McConnell and the NRSC should have never propped up corrupt Luther Strange in the first place and instead thrown their support behind Brooks (after convincing Strange to forgo a run for the special election).

[MT Treasurer]

If lots of Republicans stay home in 2020, Republicans are seen as having a 100% chance of keeping the Senate, and Moore's scandals are at the forefront of the campaign in October 2020, then yeah, maybe Jones could win by 1.5%.

Obviously incumbency isn’t what it used to be, but it does count for something if the incumbent isn’t extremely unpopular like Gardner in CO. 2017 wasn’t the only time Moore did poorly, he only won by 4 points in 2012 even as Romney was carrying AL by 22. Moore could win in 2020, but there’s no way the race is Safe R.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s seriously refreshing to have a red state Democrat who’s not faking being a moderate or even conservative for once. I’d almost certainly vote against Jones if I lived in AL, but I’d sooner support someone like him than a fraud like Heitkamp or Manchin (and he’s better than Shelby, but that’s a very low bar). I also don’t know what the big deal with his voting record is when he never really ran as a conservadem (more like a pragmatic Democrat) in the first place and, you know, won his election with that platform? He’s representing the interests of the people who voted for him, I don’t see how that’s a bad thing. There’s no reason for him to move to the right.

[MT Treasurer]

I think Republicans are favored (but far from safe) here, but the margin will be embarrassing, especially if Tuberville gets the nom.

[MT Treasurer]

I think Republicans are favored (but far from safe) here, but the margin will be embarrassing, especially if Tuberville gets the nom.

I'm curious as to what you think it would take for Jones to win here, & what you would say his chances are as of right now?

A disastrous Republican candidate/campaign, an ugly Republican primary, further erosion of GOP support in the suburbs/urban areas, Republican overconfidence/incompetence, and a Democratic wave. I think he’s the underdog, but I don’t buy that the race is Safe R, and his chances are very clearly higher than <0.1% (this percentage was of course always ridiculous, but not surprising coming from the posters who thought KY-GOV 2019 and AL-SEN 2017 were Safe R).

[MT Treasurer]

That escalated quickly.

https://twitter.com/jeffsessions/status/1264028418951258112

Lol it appears Sessions has finally grown the tiniest of spines, & understandably so: kinda hard to run on who brown-noses Trump the best when he's backing your opponent. Still, Sessions tried for so long, it's almost like he's a simp for Trump. "Pls love me, politics daddy!" Pathetic to have seen a grown-ass man acting like this. So weak.

Yeah, Sessions should grow a spine and run as his own man/on his own conservative principles and record rather than campaigning as a Trump lackey. It probably won’t work (I really don’t expect him to win the primary), but he’ll never be able to "out-Trump" Tuberville anyway, and it’s not a strategy that will be perceived as authentic by most voters either.

[MT Treasurer]

Glad to see the NRSC has every intention of doing everything possible to make this a competitive race.

It wouldn’t be the NRSC if they didn’t. No one is better at electing red state Democrats than the NRSC.

[MT Treasurer]

This shouldn’t surprise anyone (I know it will, though), but both parties' internal numbers are showing a closer race here than recent public polling has indicated.

In a state President Donald Trump carried with 60% of the vote in 2016, and where almost two-thirds of voters cast straight party-line ballots, both Democrats and Republicans say the race between Jones and former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville will be close, despite Tuberville having a 15 percentage point lead in polls. The seat may be the GOP’s best pick-up opportunity as the party fights to defend other seats, including in Georgia and South Carolina, and maintain Senate control.

Jones has a massive financial advantage and seems to be trying his best to stage an under-the-radar comeback (obviously helped by the Democratic tidal wave/record Democratic enthusiasm):

But even with the odds stacked against him, Jones has outraised Tuberville by a wide margin. Neither candidate has done much campaigning, but strategists say Jones’ barrage of ads — 10 in September alone — shows the campaign is playing to win. The Cook Political Report and Inside Elections both rate the race as “leans Republican,” meaning they see it as competitive.

Alabama Democratic strategist Zac McCrary said Jones’s fundraising advantage has helped him be able to define Tuberville. Alabama voters don’t necessarily want a candidate as inexperienced or as tied to Trump as Tuberville, McCrary said. Republicans, on the other hand, say criticizing Trump likely won’t go over well given how popular the president is in the state.

“The 2017 conventional wisdom was no matter how bad of a candidate Roy Moore was, Democrats just couldn’t win a U.S. Senate race in Alabama,” McCrary said. “Some of those people are saying Democrats just can’t win reelection in a presidential election year. Jones still has a chance to go in there real strong and surprise people.”

Genius strategy from Tuberville's campaign here (not like Doug Jones' voting record/statements provide hilariously easy ad material or anything):

Tuberville’s only three ads have focused on his personality as a coach and how he supports veterans and Trump.

https://about.bgov.com/news/republicans-arent-writing-off-doug-jones-neither-is-jones/

[MT Treasurer]

I’ll be proud of Jones if he can get more than 40%

You’re setting the bar ridiculously low. There’s no way Jones gets worse than 43%/44% in this environment against someone like Tuberville. It’ll probably be a single-digit race.

[MT Treasurer]

lol Pericles

That was just IndyRep being a blowhard. He never learns.

Projecting a little here, huh? "He never learns" is also incredibly ironic coming from someone with your record of ridiculously biased (in favor of Democrats) predictions and comments.

Anyway, I was pleasantly surprised that this race turned out to be a blowout. Red state voters have a nasty habit of getting conned by Democratic Senate candidates, glad it didn’t happen this year. In the kind of environment the polls/data points were forecasting, this race still would have been at least somewhat closer, however, and I don’t think GOP/Democratic strategists involved in both campaigns were lying when they said the race was much closer than public polling was showing at that time. You can mock me for predicting a (high) single-digit Tuberville win, but apparently their own internals didn’t indicate that the race was less competitive than CO. Either way, it’s always wiser to lower your expectations and take nothing for granted than to get complacent and assume that partisanship will always win out, especially in red states.