Predict Bevin's margin of victory

[MT Treasurer]

The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.

[MT Treasurer]

The idea that an incumbent governor with such an abysmally low approval rating is safe in an off-year election just because he won under extremely favorable conditions four years ago (when Republicans were much more motivated than Democrats) is ludicrous. I think he’ll win, but it won’t be a landslide like this forum seems to think. "Safe R because Kentucky/polarization" is incredibly lazy #analysis, even by this forum's standards.

isn't his approval only like -15?

Thats bad but not bad enough to vote for the D.

Obviously if hits -30 and lower I might start talking.

Paul was relatively popular and only won by 14 in 2016, and that was in a presidential year when Trump won the state by 30 points... why on earth would someone like Bevin be safe/win by double digits in an off-year election when Democrats are more energized?

[MT Treasurer]

5 points. His unpopularity does mean something, after all.

No it doesn’t because something something polarization and racist hicks. Gubernatorial races are now just as partisan as Senate races, just ask governors Vitter, Jealous, Kobach,...

[MT Treasurer]

Senator Moore and Governor Cole agree that IceSpear is never wrong.

[MT Treasurer]

7% at best, more like 3-5%. Bevin is less competent/popular than McConnell, Kentucky is more Democratic-friendly in gubernatorial elections than in federal races, it’s an off-year election and not a presidential year, etc.

[MT Treasurer]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

[MT Treasurer]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Paul's performance was weak but how was 2016 an R wave year? They lost two Senate seats and a marginal number of house seats, the house PV was R+1. It's not an R wave just because they overperformed expectations overall.

It definitely was a R wave year in Kentucky. Republicans won landslide victories across the board and gained control of the Kentucky House of Representatives for the first time since 1920, turning a 53-46 D majority into a 64-36 R one.

[MT Treasurer]

Did another poll come out showing Bevin losing? Or do we still just have a now old poll showing him down 8 (and KY polls are NEVER wrong.) I could see Bevin only winning by single digits if he really runs a terrible campaign, but he's not going to lose, lol. I am factoring in his unpopularity, since I'm currently predicting he wins by 10-12%, rather than 25%+.

Rand Paul was hardly unpopular and still won a Senate race by only 14 points in a R wave year with Trump at the top of the ticket. Somehow I doubt that Bevin is only going to do two points worse than Paul.

Yeah, Paul still beat a strong opponent by 14%, and he didn't exactly embrace Trump with open the way that Bevin will. That's not to say that Trump will give him a 25% boost, but allying himself fully with Trump will help in a lot in the areas where he's "unpopular."

You’re missing the forest for the trees here: Paul was and is far more popular than Bevin will ever be. And yeah, allying himself fully with Trump will surely guarantee Bevin’s success in a gubernatorial election, just ask Governor Kris Kobach.

I’m not denying that Kentucky is an incredibly difficult state for Democrats to win these days, but I really don’t buy that Bevin’s reelection is a done deal no matter what.

[MT Treasurer]

10-15%, but I wouldn't be surprised by 5-10% or 15-20%. There was no need to include that troll option at the end.

What a troll option.

This is why you include as many options as possible in these "Rate XY" threads and not just Lean/Likely/Safe R.