KY-Mason Dixon: Bevin Trails by 8

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R because of POLARIZATION

[MT Treasurer]

Safe R because of POLARIZATION

You can't forget one other very important reason:
Kentucky is INELASTIC.

Just wait until Trump ENDORSES Bevin and holds a RALLY for him.

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin's campaign in 2015 was so hilariously awful it honestly made me believe that he was trying to lose that race. He’s an awful candidate who was saved by the environment and a very mediocre opponent, and I’m not sure whether he will have those things going in his favor again in 2019. I’d say he’s ever so slightly favored, but the idea that this is Safe R is ridiculous. Tilt or Lean R seems fine.

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

How exactly?

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

How exactly?

Maybe because a Democrat who was a "strong candidate" lost to a "weak incumbent" Republican in a district that's significantly more Democratic than Kentucky as a whole in a great year for Democrats?

McGrath was a ridiculously overrated candidate, and Barr's campaign was actually pretty solid (his ads and ground game were great), not to mention that Barr is far more popular in his district than Bevin is statewide. Why are we even comparing a gubernatorial race in an off year with a federal race in a regular midterm anyway? Saying that Barr's very underwhelming win is evidence enough that an extremely unpopular governor who’s already trailing in polling couldn’t possibly lose reelection no matter what is foolish. Trump's popularity is going to help McConnell, but probably not Bevin.

[MT Treasurer]

Bevin will probably win by that margin next year. This year should have made it clear that Kentucky will not be voting Democratic any time soon. I expect Republicans to gain complete control of all the statewide offices in the next few years there. McConnell also, is absolutely safe in 2020, and will win by double digits.

How exactly?

Maybe because a Democrat who was a "strong candidate" lost to a "weak incumbent" Republican in a district that's significantly more Democratic than Kentucky as a whole in a great year for Democrats?

McGrath was a ridiculously overrated candidate, and Barr's campaign was actually pretty solid (his ads and ground game were great), not to mention that Barr is far more popular in his district than Bevin is statewide. Why are we even comparing a gubernatorial race in an off year with a federal race in a regular midterm anyway? Saying that Barr's very underwhelming win is evidence enough that an extremely unpopular governor who’s already trailing in polling couldn’t possibly lose reelection no matter what is foolish. Trump's popularity is going to help McConnell, but probably not Bevin.

He's trailing in one poll, almost a year out, and Kentucky polls tend to underestimate Republicans anyway (Trump's approval is not only +9.) If we were talking about a somewhat less red state, then maybe Bevin's unpopularity would be enough to drag him down, but Kentucky is just way too Republican to elect a Democratic Governor, even in a good year for Democrats. Not to mention, Beshear's approvals aren't terrific (31-23), and that's probably going to get worse for him, not better.

He’s trailing by 8 points, so even if we assume that polls are underestimating him (which is a big if, and I’m old enough to remember when VA polls always underestimated Republicans until, well, they didn’t) there is clearly a path to victory for Democrats here. Even in 2015, Democrats won two statewide races in Kentucky in a very unfavorable environment. Bevin might be slightly favored, but this race is clearly not Safe R.

[MT Treasurer]

I'll certainly concede (and I'm sure IceSpear will too) that Bevin could lose if multiple polls still show him down by 8 (with Beshear near or above 50%) in September or October. As I said, it's one very early poll, and Kentucky polls aren't the most reliable.

Agreed, though even September is too early. Remember that Bredesen was leading even in a few September polls, and we saw how that worked out, with him getting BTFO by double digits even in a D+9 Democratic wave.

This comparison makes zero sense. Blackburn wasn’t the incumbent and ran against an opponent with far higher name recognition, gubernatorial races are still less partisan than Senate races in KY, turnout in an off-year election like this favors Democrats, etc.

Also, here, unlike in OK, the unpopular incumbent is actually running for reelection.