I (or someone else?) will/should bump this thread after the election.
Overrated-
John Cornyn (R-TX): Everyone seems to assume that he’s more popular than Ted Cruz, but I don’t think there’s any actual evidence for that claim. If anything, I’d argue that he’s easier to take out than Cruz. Of course he might get
lucky if the national environment is better for the GOP in 2020 than this year, but I’m not convinced that he’s unbeatable.
-
Gary Peters (D-MI): Peters doesn’t exactly strike me as an incumbent who will run far ahead of the presidential nominee, so I don’t get why some people think this is Likely D if the presidential race is close (in which case MI would almost certainly be within 3%). Of course he’s unlikely to lose in a good year for Democrats, but he’s not going to survive a "great" year for Republicans, and arguments about the lack or poor "candidate quality" of the GOP bench are pretty overblown here IMO. I’m getting Bill Nelson vibes both from him and Cornyn.
-
Steve Daines (R-MT): This has been discussed ad nauseam. There’s no way Daines, who got
very lucky in 2014, is "heavily favored" if Bullock runs against him. Of course people are going to argue that "increasing polarization" and the fact that this is a Senate and not a gubernatorial race are going to hurt Bullock, but Jon Tester did
23 points better than Clinton in a
federal race even though turnout was a
higher than in 2016 (which you’d assume would benefit a Republican in a Senate race in a "red" state) and
Trump actively campaigned against him. Didn’t matter, even though polarization is supposedly at an all-time high. Hmmm...
-
Pat Roberts (R-KS): Given how badly he underperformed in 2014 (a GOP wave year), I have a hard time believing that someone like Svaty wouldn’t at least give him a scare in 2020. The state is also trending Democratic.
Underrated-
Joni Ernst (R-IA): I don’t really buy that this race is more winnable for Democrats than Georgia, North Carolina, Texas, Kansas, Montana, Alaska, etc., especially if the presidential race is close. Sure, Ernst isn’t quite safe, but unless 2018 is a Democratic tsunami I don’t think there’s much Democrats can do to win here. She’ll probably run ahead of Trump, even if it’s just by 1%-3%, and that should be enough. It’s true that Ernst is hardly the sharpest knife in the drawer, but somehow I doubt that’s going to hurt her among swing voters, lol. Ask Senator Rosendale how easy it is to defeat an incumbent who capitalizes on their "populist veteran farm [girl/boy]" shtick.
-
Susan Collins (R-ME): People can scream about "polarization!" all they want, but she won with nearly 70% of the vote in 2014 and is still fairly popular. Sure, obviously hardcore Democrats who view her as a "fake moderate" won’t vote for her, but she doesn’t need their votes in a Republican-trending Clinton +3 state. Just because every state voted the same way for Senate and president in 2016 doesn’t mean that it’s guaranteed to happen again in 2020. I think Collins wins this by 5%-12% or something like that, depending on who the Democrats nominate.
-
Steve Bullock (D-MT): He’s more likely to be the Rick Scott/Maggie Hassan of 2020, certainly not a Bayh or Bredesen like this forum seems to think.
-
Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH): The fact that many actually think this will be a competitive race is pretty hilarious. Some people never learn.
-
Mark Warner (D-VA): Simply because pretty much every VA Democrat is underrated these days. This race isn’t "Lean" or "Likely" D, it’s Titanium D no matter what. Period.
-
Doug Jones (D-AL): Yeah, it’s not looking good for him, and I’m not saying that he’ll win, but rating it Safe R probably goes a bridge too far, especially since we don’t even know his opponent yet. Also, Jones is a far stronger incumbent than Heitkamp or McCaskill (who still outperformed Clinton by
a lot despite "polarization") and red states have shown an openness to splitting tickets that we haven’t really seen in blue states in a long time, which is why it’s entirely plausible to say that Jones is (slightly) more likely to win than Gardner.
-
Mitch McConnell (R-KY): No explanation needed, lol.
