Congressional Special Election (last call! unstickied after NY-27 final results)

[MT Treasurer]

56R/44D is my guess.

[MT Treasurer]

Well, i overestimated Democrats by predicting only 65-35....

My prediction was even more embarrassing, but it’s not like these off-year special elections are easy to predict. It does appear that the pattern this year isn’t nearly as favorable for Democrats as in 2017/2018.

[MT Treasurer]

The enthusiasm gap should seriously worry Republicans:

Very excited: McCready +1
Somewhat excited: McCready +4
Not sure: McCready +13
Not excited: Bishop +14 (!)

[MT Treasurer]

Cook Political Report identified more than 30 House seats that are less Republican-leaning than NC-9. If R's win by low digits here, they are in for a world of hurt next year.

I’m sure a special election in a Democratic wave environment in which Democrats have a clear enthusiam edge and the Republican candidate has been outspent by a lot is the best indicator of a massive blue wave in 2020. All it tells you is that Republicans are in trouble, but that would have been true (and obvious) even if they had won NC-09.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, Murphy is leading by 16 points and it’s only going to get worse for Thomas, so they were right to call this for Republicans.

[MT Treasurer]

NYT calls NC-03 for Murphy (R)

[MT Treasurer]

More of Robeson just dropped, now McCready +10. Was McCready +15 in November.

[MT Treasurer]

More Robison just came in, and it didn’t get any better for McCready. Went from McCready +10 to McCready +6...

[MT Treasurer]

Anson is done

McCready +14.1
Was McCready +16.6 last November

[MT Treasurer]

More Robeson precincts came in, down to a 4-point lead for McCrory now. Was McCready +15 last November.

[MT Treasurer]

LOL Cumberland has flipped

[MT Treasurer]

I think the biggest takeaway from both elections is that the urban/suburban vs. rural divide is likely to intensify in 2020.

[MT Treasurer]

It's now official. McCready improves from his 2018 result in suburban Mecklenburg (Bishop's home turf!) and does roughly the same in suburban Union County. But he does worse overall due to a total collapse in the rural areas, losing two rural counties he carried in 2018 and nearly losing one he carried by 15 points (!) in 2018!

Politician, Zaybay, and everyone else who insists there will be a rural surge for the Democrats in 2020 must be reeling right now.

Yes because as we all know all of rural America has a large Lumbee population......

It wasn’t just NC-09. Greg Murphy's margin in NC-03 slightly exceeded Trump's margin in 2016, if I’m not mistaken.