Why is Tester doing so much better than Heitkamp?

[MT Treasurer]

Because he knows the average MT voter can identify with him:

[MT Treasurer]

-People are angry over body-slamming Gianforte.

Uh, no. That has zero impact on the Senate race, and doesn’t really explain why Rosendale’s doing worse than Gianforte in the polls.

You guys have mentioned the main reasons already, but I’d also add that people underestimate how effective negative ads are. Mondale_was_an_insidejob may not believe it, but these ads do matter, especially in states like MT and ND, where Senate races are generally won by tearing down your opponent. Rosendale and Heitkamp have both faced a barrage of pretty devastating negative ads, and the MT GOP didn’t really respond early and effectively enough to those ads. Rosendale is also getting outraised, outspent and out-advertised by Tester/Democratic groups, and it isn’t even close.

[MT Treasurer]

Mondale, if they are as ineffective as you claim, then why are the Tester campaign and outside groups bombarding voters with negative ads here? Why aren’t they as wise as a poster on uselectionatlas.org?

- Tester is male
- Tester is male
- Tester is male
- Tester's haircut
- People are afraid Heitkamp has no soul because gingers

No, no, no, Gianforte/Tester voters definitely don’t care about such shallow or superficial things, it’s all about #populism and actual issues. And the only reason Kathleen Williams is doing worse than Jon Tester is because she’s not as "moderate" and clearly more "out of touch" with "Montana values", you see.