WV- Global Strategy: Manchin +12

[MT Treasurer]

Morrisey is a Raese-tier candidate.

[MT Treasurer]

Nah, I’ve always said that Morrisey is a far weaker candidate than Jenkins. He’s extremely unlikeable, not charismatic, from the wrong part of the state, has lobbyist ties, failed ro respond effectively and early enough to negative ads, etc. Not that GOP primary voters care about electability, though.

Morrisey was never a good candidate tbh. I remember laughing at those takes that Morrisey was a great candidate. The only reason people were saying that is because Blankenship was so godawful as a candidate that he looked great compared to him.

^This.

[MT Treasurer]

true, he was rather poor, though I would say below average, but my gripe is with the people who lauded him with praise and declared Manchin dead, and are now declaring Morrisey the worst candidate around. The same was done for FL-Gov, along with a multitude of other races.

Believe it or not, I actually wasn’t one of those people.

[MT Treasurer]

I guess I am the only one who never saw these waves and waves of posts praising Morrisey as some godly, A-tier candidate, LOL.  All I ever saw posted was that A) he wasn't that crazy halfwit with the mustache and B) it's really not that surprising that the GOP primary electorate didn't nominate a person who was a Democrat practically yesterday just because MT Treasurer told them over and over that he would beat Manchin, LOL.

1) I never predicted that he would definitely beat Manchin, just that he would make it a Tossup.
2) Jenkins wasn’t a Demorat "practically yesterday", that’s a gross exaggeration right there. And you implying that someone is a RINO is pretty rich as well.
3) You don’t have to be a genius to realize that he would have been a far stronger candidate than Morrisey, who’s having a hard time winning over those DINOs in WV-03 right now!

[MT Treasurer]

LOL, okay.  As for your third point, why are you convinced those voters are any more essential than any other area of the state?  Would Jenkins not be doing worse in the 1st than Morrisey?  This is probably 2010 numbers (from Statistical Atlas), but the population is broken down about like this:

WV-2: 625,140
WV-1: 617,080
WV-3: 603,880

WV-3 has the fewest number of voters, and I would wager that WV-1 has the highest turnout.  Morrisey will lose because he's not a better candidate than Manchin, Manchin as an incumbent who is popular in the state for a Democrat and because this is a Trump midterm (no, I don't think it's particularly relevant that Trump won WV by so much to this fact) ... not because a Republican running in WV needs better margins in WV-3 than in any other district, IMO.

First of all, I strongly doubt that Jenkins lost his primary because he was a Democrat in 2013, lol. Second, there is really no reason to believe that Jenkins would have underperformed generic R in the traditionally more Republican parts of the state like the Eastern Panhandle (and it seems as if Morrisey isn’t doing particularly well there either right now). Third, to win statewide, a Republican obviously has to make inroads in the most Democratic district (in statewide/Senate races) in the state, WV-03. Jenkins was better-suited to pull it off than Morrisey for obvious reasons (represented the district in Congress, more appealing profile/background, etc.). Like it or not, there are a ton of voters in WV who vote R in presidential races but D in statewide races.

[MT Treasurer]

DADDY JOE FOR KAVANAUGH OH BLEEP YEAH GO MANCHIN!!!!!!!!! WOOOHOOOO!!!!!!!!!!

If Manchin votes for Kavanaugh, this race is over (assuming it isn’t already).