Most of these would really only be considered "bold" by Atlas, but whatever:
- Cramer's "gaffe" will have virtually zero impact on the outcome of the election, and the entire Kavanaugh controversy actually ends up hurting Heitkamp and other deep red state Democrats.
- Jon Tester comes closer to losing than Ted Cruz.
- The polls actually overestimate Heitkamp this time.
- Matt Rosendale wins Yellowstone County.
- FL-SEN is decided by 1.5% or less, with Nelson doing 3-4 points worse than Gillum (who I’m pretty sure will win FL-GOV) despite anectodal "evidence" to the contrary.
- Coffman, Comstock and Paulsen all do much worse than Rod Blum, Bruce Poliquin and Andy Barr.
- Molly Kelly wins NH-GOV by 3% or so even if Republicans outperform expectations nationally (I know, I know, how could a white woman with a D next to her name possibly beat a member of the anti-women hate group in a Clinton state that rejected the GOP even in recent wave elections. How bold!)
- Hurd wins (narrowly, perhaps) even as Democrats flip one or both of TX-07/32.
- The same party wins all of IN-SEN, ND-SEN, TN-SEN and MO-SEN.
- MN-01, MN-02, MN-03 and MN-08 are all either won by Democrats or (more likely IMO) they all flip.
- GA-GOV goes to a runoff which is decided by less than 2%.
- MS-SEN goes to a runoff which quickly becomes fairly competitive.
- Polling underestimates all NV Democrats (!!!).
- Sisolak does better than Mills.
- Rosen wins by more than Tester and Brown.
And, the safest prediction ever:
-Even after Kelly, Kuster and Pappas win by decent margins, Atlas will still claim that New Hampshire is the most likely Clinton state to flip, and is even more likely to go Republican than Michigan or Pennsylvania. A poll showing Trump "only" losing New Hampshire by three will "confirm" to Atlas that New Hampshire is still a Toss-Up state despite having two Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, two out of two Democratic representatives, and having voted Democratic in the last four presidential elections.
