MT Treasurer
IndyRep
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Posts: 15,275
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« on: June 14, 2018, 09:09:53 PM » |
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Nelson hails from a different era in which the Hispanic vote wasn’t nearly as pivotal as it is now. In some ways, he’s a remnant of the past who’s been in office very long and has had trouble catching up with the changing political realities of his state. That this type of Senator could struggle to fend off an aggressive challenger in his reelection bid isn’t really surprising when you consider how badly Roy Blunt underperformed Trump in 2016.
That said, I think the national environment saves Nelson and he wins by 2-3 (maybe even 5) on election day. He’s not the strongest incumbent, but he’s not incompetent enough to lose in a closely divided swing state in a massive Democratic wave year. If Republicans outperform expectations and it’s a more neutral year (unlikely), I think Scott ekes out a win, though.
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