AL-Sen, WaPo: Jones +3

[MT Treasurer]

Much more believable than the other polls. Lean D.

[MT Treasurer]

Much more believable than the other polls. Lean D.

Not really. I wouldn't call it Lean D right now, with all the conflicting polls.

This race has all the ingredients to be a really close one, within one point ...

We've heard it before.

I'm skeptical that Republicans can win a special election here given that Democratic turnout is likely to be through the roof and Jones is probably being underpolled. Those allegations do matter, whether people like to believe it or not.

[MT Treasurer]

You can't keep using this 'special election' argument when a race is this nationalized. GA-06 had higher turnout than 2016.

It may be "nationalized", but in this case that doesn't tell us anything about who will show up to vote or how many Republican-leaning voters will defect. Handel wasn't accused of being a pedophile, we're dealing with completely different circumstances here.