AL-SEN 2017: Moore +16 in primary

[MT Treasurer]

I don't know what's sadder Moore leading this primary or people here think he is damaged enough to lose people Alabama is not voting in a den senator short of Moore murdering a baby an even then the dem has to be a Joe Manchin clone

I don't think Strange is necessarily a better candidate than Moore. An upset is possible regardless of who wins the R nomination, which is why I'd rate this Likely R. Special elections can be unpredictable, and polarization isn't as strong in Republican states as it is in Democratic states.

[MT Treasurer]

^Yeah, there are also Gardner and Collins, but (a) I expect Heller and Gardner to lose reelection, (b) Collins was always an exception to the rule, plus Maine isn't really that Democratic and (c) Heller's election was a fluke because Shelley Berkley was a godawful candidate. Even Gardner only won by less than 2 in a perfect storm for Republicans. It's much more difficult for a Republican (regardless of how moderate they are) to win a Senate race in a Democratic-leaning state than it is for a Republican to do the same in a reddish state, which is why the Republican advantage in the Senate only exists on paper.

If Jason Kander were a Republican and running against... say... Patty Murray, he'd lose by 15 points despite being a good candidate.

[MT Treasurer]

^It has a lot to do with my point that polarization isn't as strong in Republican states as it is in Democratic states (which is what we were talking about here), though Alabama is obviously one of the most polarized and Republican GOP states. Not that hard to figure out.

[MT Treasurer]

Is there another state that is more polarized and static on partisanship than Alabama?  I can't think of any.  What North Dakota is up to doesn't make a difference here.

Yeah, like I said... AL is one of the most inelastic Republican states, but given the way these special elections are going and the possibility of a godawful Republican being nominated, I think Likely R is still a better rating than Safe. My point is more that Republicans can't take anything for granted, I don't really expect the Democrats to win here in the end.