Alabama Megathread: Bombshell allegations

[MT Treasurer]

Moore is running. For Senate.

As much as I would love to see Roy Moore in the Senate, I don't want to wind up with a competitive race in Alabama of all places

It's Alabama. He can't lose the GE.

No. No open seat in a red state should be taken for granted by the GOP. Remember what happened in IN and ND in 2012?

Likely R.

[MT Treasurer]

Cool, he's almost certainly more electable than either Moore or Strange.

[MT Treasurer]

There's no comparision between AL and IN/ND

Fair point (and I know AL is much more inelastic than IN/ND), but never underestimate how crazy and unpredictable these special elections can get, especially if turnout is low. If the GOP nominee implodes or turns out to be corrupt as hell, all bets are off. I mean... if there is a party that knows how to lose a Senate race in a state like AL, it's the Republican Party.

[MT Treasurer]

Filing deadline has passed.

If I was in the democratic party, I would work behind the scenes to get Sessions to run as an independent candidate, which I imagine is still possible, and then hope for a split in the GOP vote that allows whoever the dems nominate to win.

If you were the Democratic Party, the Republicans would have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

[MT Treasurer]

Republicans aren't going to lose this race, but I could see Democrats coming within 7-10 points of winning if Strange is the nominee. Moore would also underperform, but I think he would win by 8-12 in the end. Brooks is the most electable Republican, he would win by 15-20 IMO.

Lean/Likely R with Strange or Moore, Likely/Safe R with Brooks.

Not that Strange isn't scandalous, but how would he underperform Moore?

Because Strange is the embodiment of the corrupt (Washington) establishment and we could see very depressed Republican turnout if he is the nominee. Trump has said far worse things than Roy Moore, and he won AL by 28 points. Moore would energize the GOP base more than Strange, and Democratic turnout will be high anyway because it's a special election.

[MT Treasurer]

Not just the Washington establishment, but the Montgomery, AL establishment as well.

Yes, exactly. I think all the McConnell groups which are spending so much money on ads supporting Strange don't realize that they could be putting the seat in jeopardy. I'm sure the same "strategists" that think propping up Strange is a good idea are planning on sending Roy Blunt to campaign for him or something like that.

[MT Treasurer]

lol, true. I feel like blue states in general are more open to electing conservatives/Republicans than vice-versa.

This is definitely not the case when you look at the number of red state Democrats (4-6, depending on what you count as "red") vs. blue state Republicans (only 2-3, 1 of who is DOA in 2020 and the other who will likely lose in 2018) in the Senate. MA is just as inflexible as AL in federal races, and arguably even more so.

[MT Treasurer]

If Moore becomes the GOP nominee (of which I think there is a 49% chance) it could potentially be competitive and draw some attention.

A Democratic senator, in Alabama, in 2017, yeah, well, okay. I don't think I'll ever see that.

Competitive, not a D win but competitive with Moore is possible.

If it's competitive with Moore, it'll be competitive with Strange as well.

[MT Treasurer]

Mitch McConnell pours more money into Luther Strange campaign

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[MT Treasurer]

Uuuggghhh. I hope this doesn't help him. He needs to go. I hope the voters still remember the shady circumstances of the appointment.
#NeverStrange

The fact that Strange is outspending Moore 15 to 1 and his "best" poll is still showing him trailing Moore by 2 should tell you all you need to know about his supposed "electability" in the general election.

[MT Treasurer]

Chances that Jones beats Moore in the general? I'd say 15% tops.

If Republican turnout is as low as it was in some of the other special elections this year, probably 35% or so. If Republicans actually get their voters out and/or try to nationalize the race, 0%-5%. Lean/Likely R at this point, but I'd be more worried about this seat if Strange were the nominee.

[MT Treasurer]

54% Moore
46% Strange

[MT Treasurer]

Wow, another $1.2 million for Strange from Senate Leadership Fund and Chamber of Commerce.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/910607642371878913

wow, more money in the trash!

do these people not get it? they're backing a charisma black hole who has just as much potential to lose in the general election as literally Roy "reds and yellows" Moore.

Not to mention that Strange is already outspending him 10 to 1 and running false attack ads 24/7. And he's still trailing in the polls, which should tell you all you need to know about his "electability" in the GE. This guy even makes Roy Blunt look like a strong candidate.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats don't lose in WV because of one poster on a bizarre political forum who expresses his unfavorable opinion of the state. IceSpear "bashing" WV has about the same impact on the outcome of that Senate race as Wulfric's endorsements.

Anyway, not sure if I can buy the "Jones can't win because AL is just too inelastic" argument. Was MA considered elastic at the federal level before Scott Brown won in 2010? Yeah, I don't think so. This is a race that will come down to turnout/enthusiasm and whether more "moderate" (I hate to use that term) Republican-leaning voters in the urban and suburban areas will consider voting for Jones. If Republicans take this race for granted there's a good chance they'll regret it. Sure, it's a likely R Hold, but this could be the 51st D seat (assuming they win AZ+NV and lose one of their seats, maybe MO or so, next year). I really don't think they'll win that Senate race in Tennessee even if Bredesen runs, but MS, AL and mayyybeee UT could get really interesting.

[MT Treasurer]

Apparently, Moore leads Democratic nominee Doug Jones in campaign fundraising by about a 3-to-2 margin.

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[MT Treasurer]

If Republicans still take this for granted after tonight, they really deserve to lose Congress.

[MT Treasurer]

TOSSUP

Probably right, but I seriously doubt Strange would do very well as a write-in candidate, and the potential impact this story will have on the outcome of the race is probably exaggerated.

also whats the dem base level in Alabama?

In a special election with an unpopular Republican president in the WH, I'd say 42%.

Strange running as a write-in would be great (though unlikely), even if he only gets like less than 10%. Jones doesn't need to get 50%, just the most votes, and he could hypothetically win with 45%.

Yeah I agree, though this might also nationalize the race to a certain extent. A Tossup rating is probably warranted, though I doubt that Strange would get more than 5%-7%.

[MT Treasurer]

Expect to see a lot more of this in next year's elections.

Anyway, pretty obvious that the Senate is in play now, and that's precisely what Republican Senate candidates in some of those "red" states should emphasize in 2018. This really seems to be a cursed Senate class for the GOP.