Fun Fact: PA is Just as Much of a Swing State as OH, IA, or CO

[MT Treasurer]

The Democrats' insistence that PA is not a battleground state is both pathetic and hilarious. It was one of the few states that didn't trend Democratic from 2000-2012.

^ Yep, here's the state version of this map:

And regarding those "statistics" that are supposed to "prove" that PA is a safe blue state, well, you know what Mark Twain said: There are lies, damned lies and then there are statistics.

[MT Treasurer]

And you can go back to reading the National Enquirer, hoping that Hillary dies so Republicans have a better chance at winning the election. I'm not going to getting a flame war about Pennsylvania, I'll just bookmark this thread for next year and settle the beef then.

lol

[MT Treasurer]

If you are willing to see this as  a plausible scenario, PA is critical. It is not a tossup, but it is obviously a battleground. The 2 electoral vote difference between it and Ohio make a difference. PA= win for D with 270 ...OH only goes D= Republican win with 270 (if FL goes R)

Exactly, and hence the Democrats' never-ending insistence that PA is solid D while NH is a pure toss-up.

[MT Treasurer]

Look up the definition of "fact." Pennsylvania could be competitive, but it's absurd to assume that it will be as competitive as OH, IA, and CO. Evidence that PA is trending Republican is mixed at best, and I see no way that it will be critical to the electoral math. If Republicans win PA, they've already won easily. It's certainly not more competitive than FL.

PA has a D+1 PVI. It's called a safe blue state.
NH has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
CO has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
IA has a D+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.
OH has a R+1 PVI. Rated Toss-up.

I know PVI isn't everything, but do you notice something?

I think the perception is largely based around Pennsylvania bordering Democratic strongholds like NY, DE, MD, and NJ.

Then there's no reason to assume that NH (which borders the most Democratic states in the country) is a Toss-up either (which I don't think it is, btw).

[MT Treasurer]

I do find it rather odd however, that you have such a different attitude towards NH vis a vis PA. I mean NH trended to the Pubs too in 2012, albeit by not as much as PA did. I tend to agree that perhaps PA has more potential for the Pubs than NH, but that is based on untapped potential as discussed above, that needs to be tapped to make a difference, and given the chaos in the Pub party at the moment, they might not be focused enough to do what needs to be done (maybe team Toomey will help do some of it for them himself).

What matters is the long-term trend. And even you have admitted that NH is gone.

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https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164324.0

NH is a cruel state, isn't it? Always threatening to go to the GOP, but it never materializes. Perhaps its residents are lying to the pollsters to trick the GOP into wasting its money there?

[MT Treasurer]

Once more:

TNvolunteer—show us the 2004 map in which incumbent Republican president George W. Bush carried the state of Pennsylvania while he won the U.S. Popular Vote by 2.46 percentage points!

Dismissed because 2004 is not relevant to the discussion. Or do you want to argue that OR is in serious danger of flipping to the GOP in 2016 if the Democrats win the popular vote by half a point?

I think we all know the answer, DS0816.

[MT Treasurer]

Franklin & Marshall pollster views Pennsylvania as relevant in 2016 campaign

Surely a Republican hack, amirite? Btw: He also thinks either Kasich or Rubio will win the nomination.

[MT Treasurer]

PA is still fool's gold for Republicans, right?

Lol, this thread is hilarious.