🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

BBB, JA21, PVV
BBB have just announced that former CDA Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs Mona Keijzer will be their candidate for Prime Minister and #2 on the list. In addition, they announced that MPs Lilian Helder (PVV), Nicki Pouw-Verweij (JA21), and Derk Jan Eppink (JA21) are making a direct transfer to them and will be on the list for parliament at #5, #9 and #19 respectively - in the spirit of Deadline Day, here we go confirmed. This is big in their competition for right-wing voters with Omtzigt's NSC as well as with the VVD. It addresses the doubts about Van der Plas' candidacy for PM quite strongly. Also devastating for JA21, who are left with one MP only, Joost Eerdmans.

VVD
Meanwhile, the VVD have presented their draft election manifesto "Providing Space. Setting Limits" ("Ruimte Geven. Grenzen Stellen", the latter part of which also means "erecting a border" or "a boundary" and evidently refers to immigration too), focusing heavily on the subject of limiting immigration. The VVD want to renegotiate the Refugee Convention, focus on deals with third countries, and request the same opt-out as Denmark if all of this fails when the EU Treaties are renegotiated.

Most eye-catching points right now: their own Asylum & Immigration Deputy Minister Van der Burg's initiative to forcefully redistribute asylum seekers across municipalities evenly is rejected, which means it has no majority in parliament anymore, and their own Nature & Nitrogen Minister Van der Wal's initiative to reduce nitrogen emissions by 50% in 2030 already (moved forward from 2035, which is the current legal target) is also explicitly rejected.

When reading the manifesto you get the impression that it's difficult to see this VVD enter a coalition with GL-PvdA. At the same time, historically, the VVD manifestos have had a lower value than the paper they were written on.

SP
The SP have also presented their draft manifesto, named Now the people. Marijnissen says her party is the only "anti-capitalist party" in the Netherlands and will make "radically different choices". "The social welfare state has been replaced for a mistrusting and punishing government. This is the case for the ordinary people, but not for the richest. They do better than ever. It is understandable people are losing trust in politics."

Some proposals:
- A minimum wage of 16 euros per hour
- Nationalization of the public transportation, energy, and childcare sectors
- Higher pensions and benefits
- No copayments for healthcare
- No budget cuts in healthcare
- No closed regional hospitals
- Pension age back to 65
- A temporary stop on labour migration
- Higher flight tax for frequent flyers for business; no flight tax for people who fly only once per year (already interested in the system they want to introduce to track people's flying behavior...)
- Amending Article 23 in the Constitution which provides for freedom of education to limit freedom for religious schools
- Forcefully redistributing asylum seekers across municipalities evenly
- More possibilities for municipalities to expropriate landlords if they leave their property empty
- The introduction of a binding referendum

[DavidB.]

New Peil.nl poll. Following the announcement of Mona Keijzer's PM candidacy, BBB gain 4 seats.



If asked whether voters want Keijzer (BBB), Timmermans (GL-PvdA) or Yesilgöz (VVD) as PM, this is the result by party (allen = all voters):



Big question mark still: who will be Omtzigt's candidate for PM?

[DavidB.]

Yes, those two are among the most interesting figures. For CU, it shows the extent to which the party's leftward turn is supported by its voters. As for the SP, they and Timmermans have a history: in the 2019 EP election campaign, the SP launched a very controversial attack ad against Timmermans, depicted as an out-of-touch, elitist Eurocrat. His green crusade is also something that could rub SP voters the wrong way. Their appreciation of Keijzer is, I think, less of a "right-wing" thing and more of a "she's close to the people" thing. I am more curious about the 20% of SP voters who prefer Yesilgöz. Don't understand that.

Another interesting figure is the last remaining JA21 voters (1 seat now...) prefering Yesilgöz over Keijzer by such a big margin. If you had asked me, I would have expected these numbers to be inversed. If they are correct, the only thing I can imagine is that the remaining JA21 voters are relatively highly educated and very much concentrated in the Randstad and like Yesilgöz' profile on immigration and crime. I suppose many will eventually end up voting for her.

[DavidB.]

This weekend, the CDA presented its candidates. The top-10 consists of 8 incumbent MPs - mostly the younger ones, such as Henri Bontenbal (40, #1), Derk Boswijk (34, #3) and Harmen Krul (29, #5). With the CDA at 5 to 6 seats in the polls, many MPs decided to call it quits and do not return on the list. The party will focus on a "decent" Netherlands in which moral standards are upheld both by the government and in society. This is a nod to the theme of "norms and values", i.e. the idea that the Netherlands should again become a society in which people treat each other with respect; a theme which was long one of the most important to Dutch voters, on which CDA still has issue ownership and to which it owed its victories in the 2000s. The question is whether embracing it will be enough in a landscape with two CDA "copies" which, given the CDA's baggage, have more credibility on the issue. The question is also how visible the CDA can be, and how they can overcome the fact that most Dutch people don't know who Bontenbal is. Public Housing Minister Hugo de Jonge, the former party leader, already started off with a typical CDA fail: on camera with a parliamentary reporter, he made a joke at the expense of incumbent CDA MP Lucille Werner and her walking disability...

D66 also had some sort of a campaign kickoff behind closed doors, in which their new leader Rob Jetten made a speech. It is clear he wants the party to be less polarizing and return to somewhat of a centrist position in the political landscape, mentioning the old D66 slogan "the reasonable alternative". He says this is a time of a new generation in politics which shouldn't polarize, but instead unite to tackle the challenges of our time - which, in his view, is first and foremost the climate, but also education and purchasing power. NRC note that Jetten did not touch upon a number of topics which have historically been important to D66: democratic reform (although this went out of the window under Pechtold already), progressive legislation (the most important "crown jewel" under Pechtold, but de-emphasized under Kaag already), and LGBT issues (but Jetten himself is gay and has been vocal about anti-LGBT hate speech in the past).

Under Jetten, D66 will embrace nuclear energy, a change in position - in his capacity of Climate Minister, Jetten has been responsible for the planning of the construction of two new nuclear power plants at the initiative of VVD and CDA, but the official D66 position was still against. Now, Jetten says we do not have the luxury to exclude nuclear. He also says the debate surrounding nitrogen and the climate has to be had in a less polarizing way. Rumor has it that the D66 MP most responsible for this polarization, agriculture spokesman Tjeerd de Groot ("cut the amount of livestock by 50%"), will not return on the list.

In any case, D66 are set to lose a lot of seats: in the most recent I&O and Peil.nl polls, they are at 7, a loss of 17. It will be difficult for them to differentiate themselves from Timmermans and GL/PvdA, who will receive much more attention. Jetten had a little dig at them, saying "do you only want to support the bottom of income groups or do you, like us, choose to focus on the working people?" Perhaps this is a line that could work for them, particularly if GL/PvdA's manifesto turns out to be too left-wing economically for some socially progressive voters with relatively high incomes.

At the same time, D66's turn towards nuclear makes things even more difficult for Volt, as nuclear energy was virtually the only issue on which they had a different position (in favor) than D66.

Jetten also condemned the fact that VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz has opened the door to the PVV again ("To all real liberals, you are all very welcome at D66").

[DavidB.]

Last minute cabinet reshuffle: as Frans Timmermans will leave the European Commission to focus on leading GL-PvdA into the election, the Dutch government has nominated Foreign Affairs Minister Wopke Hoekstra (CDA) to the European Commission. The European Parliament still has to approve this, but Rutte and the CDA have already arranged the reshuffle.

Hoekstra's position as Minister of Foreign Affairs will be taken up by current Interior Affairs Minister Hanke Bruins Slot (CDA), a former Dutch army officer. Hugo de Jonge (CDA), the current Minister of Public Housing, will keep his ministry but also take up Bruins Slot's position as Interior Minister. Karien van Gennip (CDA), Minister of Social Affairs, will take up Hoekstra's responsibilities as second Deputy Prime Minister.

[DavidB.]

We finally have the first Ipsos/EenVandaag poll since the announcement of NSC. They have historically been very accurate.

Numbers are compared to previous poll at July 25th:

NSC 27 (new)
VVD 26 (-2)
GL/PvdA 20 (-7)
BBB 15 (-9)
PVV 15 (-4)
D66 10 (-)
PvdD 9 (+2)
ChristenUnie 5 (-)
CDA 5 (-1)
SP 3 (-3)
FVD 3 (-1)
Volt 3 (-1)
JA21 3 (-1)
SGP 3 (-)
DENK 3 (-)
50Plus 0 (-)
BIJ1 0 (-)
BVNL 0 (-)

BBB lose a lot to NSC - but GL/PvdA too. The PvdD are also gaining voters who intended to choose GL/PvdA in July.

EenVandaag's Opiniepanel also has a poll on the "acceptability" of potential PMs:

Yesilgöz (VVD): 50% acceptable / 42% unacceptable
Keijzer (BBB): 39% acceptable / 52% unacceptable
Timmermans (GL/PvdA): 36% acceptable / 58% unacceptable
Wilders (PVV): 24% acceptable / 69% unacceptable

Note that this is a different question than Peil.nl's question discussed above, in which voters were asked to choose one between Timmermans, Keijzer and Yesilgöz.

[DavidB.]

Yeah, not sure what's going on there and why they would even backtrack on Keijzer as PM candidate in the first place - polls have confirmed Keijzer is popular. BBB have managed their growth very well thus far, but in cases like these, you notice they are still new and unexperienced.

One party after another is presenting its draft candidate list and its draft election manifesto, which usually have to be approved by the membership. The VVD had already presented its manifesto and published its list this week. The previous election was just two years ago, so it makes sense that a lot of MPs continue and there's fewer new candidates than usually - the first new name is at #16. The top 10 contains seven women, the top 5 four. Leader Dilan Yesilgöz is followed by parliamentary group leader Sophie Hermans, former immigration spokeswoman Bente Becker, Immigration Deputy Minister Eric van der Burg, and Nature & Nitrogen Minister Christianne van der Wal. Some up and coming young MPs were awarded a high spot, among which Foreign Affairs spokesman Ruben Brekelmans (very visible on supporting Ukraine; #6), climate & energy spokesman Silvio Erkens (very pro-nuclear; #11), and agriculture spokesman Thom van Campen (#14).

GroenLinks-PvdA have presented their draft manifesto Together for a hopeful future and list this week. They want a 16 euro per hour minimum wage, an end to flexible, so-called 'zero hour contracts', and a 49 euro per month 'climate ticket' for unlimited use of public transportation. They want 2030 to become the deadline for 50% nitrogen reduction and continue to oppose nuclear energy. On immigration, deals with third countries (like with Turkey and Tunisia) are no longer taboo; here, the PvdA line has clearly won. The manifesto is very green, however: GL-PvdA want to achieve carbon neutrality by 2040 and enshrine this target in the Climate Law. Interesting: chapter "A just sustainability transition" comes first, "A secure existence for everybody" second.

Like with the VVD, the top-20 GL-PvdA candidate list consists mostly of incumbent MPs. The biggest 'surprise' is Esmah Lahlah (GroenLinks) at #2. Lahlah holds a PhD in law and has now been an alderwoman in Tilburg for 5 years, with portfolios Social Affairs, Work, Education, and Poverty Reduction. GL party leader Jesse Klaver is at #3. You can find the entire list here.

BBB has also presented its manifesto and list. At a press conference, they had already presented a number of names: Van der Plas at #1, PM candidate (?) Mona Keijzer at #2, Afghanistan veteran and war hero Gijs Tuinman, only one of the three people still alive who was awarded the highest military decoration, at #3. Parliamentary chief of staff Henk Vermeer is at #4 and former PVV MP and lawyer Lilian Helder at #5. Most of the other people on the list are still relatively unknown, although this obviously isn't the case for former JA21 MPs Nicki Pouw-Verweij (#9) and Derk Jan Eppink (#24, apparently demoted 5 spots since the press conference).

Its election manifesto is interesting, as this is the first time BBB had to take stances on a lot of issues and they are potential kingmakers after the election. The title translates as Every Day BBBetter: From Trust Crisis to Neighborly State, in which "noaberstaat" is not common Dutch but Eastern Dutch dialect, with a connotation of a tight-knit community in which people take care of each other. BBB has a lot of attention for countryside affairs - they want a "regional assessment" for every new policy to check how it would affect the countryside.

They are rather left-wing on healthcare and social affairs (e.g. higher minimum wage), but more right-wing on themes such as the speed limit on highways (back from 100 to 130 km/h by day), asylum and immigration (a 'Danish' opt-out; an annual cap of 15,000 asylum seekers), and the European Union (where they want the Committee of the Regions to become a Senate of the European Union with veto powers). They support nuclear energy, the introduction of a referendum, and the Return of the King... in the government formation process. On the other hand, for BBB, the Nitrogen Law obviously has to go.

The segment on supporting Ukraine was particularly strongly worded. A snippet:

BBB supports peace negotiations, but not against every price. If a burglar enters your house, is caught and proposes, after a fight, a compromise in which he can take away all your family jewelry, we also do not speak of an acceptable outcome.

With 16 seats in the Senate, BBB are a force to be reckoned with in every step of government formation negotiations.

BBB's polar opposite is the Party for the Animals, who presented their manifesto A world for the retaking. They move further in the Dark Green direction, away from the focus on animals.The PvdD want to reduce the number of cattle in the Netherlands by 75% in two (!) years (apparently the government doesn't have to be a trustworthy partner to farmers), cut nitrogen emissions by 70% in 2030 (compared to 2020), and reach carbon neutrality in 2030. Suffices to say the program is very green and very left-wing. Like in 2021, "A livable Earth" (capitalized everytime) is chapter one, "Animal rights" chapter two.

[DavidB.]

What about how badly Keijzer is doing among what remains of her former party's supporters? They must really see her as a traitor if she's doing that much worse than even Timmermans, the very embodiment of the party's archnemesis, the PvdA.

I'm not completely sure this is a correct interpretation. This poll shows first preferences, not approval. You'd expect Keijzer's figure to be much higher with CDA voters, true, but based on this figure alone you cannot say whether Keijzer is disliked.

Also, the bolded part of your quote is key here. The figure would look drastically different if you took CDA 2021 voters. Those who still intend to vote CDA are there for a reason; most of them are probably much more 'establishmentarian'/'don't rock the boat'-like, hence the support for (mostly) Yesilgöz. But I do think many of those Yesilgöz "preferencers" would have Keijzer and not Timmermans as second choice among the three.

[DavidB.]

Wow: Esther Ouwehand not nominated as #1 by PvdD party board because of "multiple allegations" with regard to a "potential" unspecified integrity issue, PvdD chairman Ruud van der Velden has communicated in a press statement. No idea about the context, but there is speculation that the “old guard” wants to take the party back and steer it back into a more animal-focused direction. Doesn’t sound implausible to me. Under Ouwehand, the party had really changed. Risky game though: they had tried to get rid of Ouwehand before and failed. This sort of stuff right before an election could be very damaging to the party’s prospects (see also: JA21).

Update: PvdD Groningen leader Wesley Pechler doesn't mince his words. "The PvdD board has gone completely crazy. Full support for Esther Ouwehand, and not for the dirty political games that the founders have been playing since the beginning. Now, it's the party congress' turn. Motion of no confidence against the full board."

https://twitter.com/wesleypechler93/status/1700495041897087047

Update 2: The youth organization also supports Ouwehand. Looks like the speculation about old guard vs. new generation was correct. Now, who wins this fight depends on the internal rules. Looks like 2/3 at the party congress is needed for a motion of no confidence; at first glance, I don't see any rules regarding turnout as part of the total membership. This would seem achievable for Ouwehand. She gets a ton of support from elected PvdD officials already.

https://twitter.com/pinkpolitiek/status/1700502328103547093

[DavidB.]

A nice boost for GL-PvdA regardless of what happens next. No one likes party infighting two months before an election.

Yup, 100%. This might just be what GL-PvdA needed to be the biggest party. Although I suspect that there will be not much damage if Ouwehand returns from this, which I expect; she could even win a sympathy boost out of it. But if Ouwehand goes, PvdD are toast. Even if Thieme were to take over again, this is a bad look, unless they really have something on Ouwehand.

[DavidB.]

Apparently, Esther Ouwehand had sent a very critical letter to the board yesterday, which is now public. In it, she decries a lack of professionalism in the board, the continuous sabotage of her work, and the opposition to any change Ouwehand wanted to bring. She reveals that the board had wanted her to "lead all elected local PvdD leaders into opposition" after the local election in 2022; instead, this became the first time after which some municipal PvdD chapters entered local government. Ouwehand also attributes her burn-out at the end of 2022, when she left parliament for 4 months, to her treatment by the board, and says she was "undermined slanderously" when she returned.

Today, Ouwehand also published a public statement in response to the board's allegations. She claims she had never heard anything about her integrity being compromised before today, and she essentially concludes these allegations are purely the consequence of her sending out this letter to the board. It's hard not to agree with this impression. She says she wants to stay on as leading candidate.

https://twitter.com/fonslambie/status/1700535696342077828

Meanwhile, NRC Handelsblad confirm there have recently been tensions between the party board and Ouwehand on ideological grounds. The board would particularly be opposed to Ouwehand embracing climate group Extinction Rebellion, known for blocking highway A12 on multiple instances.

MP Christine Teunissen, also head of the commission that wrote the party manifesto, has expressed full support for Ouwehand, and so did multiple provincial and local factions. I can only see this end with Ouwehand returning as party leader. The only question is how many PvdD elected officials would split off and how nasty things are still going to get.

[DavidB.]

The PvdD have 6 seats and only Teunissen immediately came to Ouwehand’s support. The other four MPs remained silent - until this morning. They all published their own version of a weaksauce statement which contains the elements that everyone is innocent until proven guilty, the situation “confuses” them, allegations into supposed breach of integrity should be “looked into carefully”, and everyone should continue supporting the party because animals are suffering (an argument the PvdD board has used to silence critics before, then worded as “the animals are crying”). In other words: they are on the side of the board but don’t want to say so, because they haven’t read the room enough to realize that their entire base supports Ouwehand (looking at Twitter responses, they are currently finding out about it) but they have read it enough to realize they can’t voice open support for the board. One of the four MPs, Lammert van Raan, is married to board member Lieke Keller.

[DavidB.]

Things are getting even more heated now in the PvdD.

Ouwehand received a public letter of support from 185 politically active PvdD members: 23 (out of 29) municipal PvdD leaders, 15 (out of 16) PvdD leaders on the water boards, 5 leaders of the Provincial PvdD groups, 7 leaders of provincial PvdD chapters, 7 board members of the youth organization, 56 local councillors and staffers, 21 members of the Provincial States and staffers, 15 members of the water boards and committee members, 15 local board members, 3 staffers in Parliament, and 18 "others". They demand the board to resign.

Later today, 13 out of 20 staffers in Parliament wrote another letter to support Ouwehand.

Yesterday, Nieuwsuur presented leaked notes (sent in an e-mail in July) of an Ouwehand staffer sending her scenarios to get rid of the board member Ouwehand is in conflict with - by now everybody knows this board member is Elze Boshart, one of the party's founders. The notes were extremely detailed and discussed various scenarios, including names of people Ouwehand apparently trusts. Why one would ever write such explosive information in an e-mail is beyond me, but it proves that the relations between the board had soured for quite a while already.

When cornered by journalists, MP Frank Wassenberg today expressed support for Ouwehand too - important, because this makes 50% of the parliamentary group. I haven't heard Eva van Esch say these words (EDIT: I'm reading now she also said she doesn't want to be on the list without Ouwehand leading it... hard to keep up), but she looked visibly uncomfortable with the state of affairs and the behavior of the board.

Van Raan evidently supports the board and so does Vestering; by now it is also clear that Leonie Vestering is the MP Ouwehand had a conflict with, and in fact, Vestering herself went on sick leave because of these soured relations earlier this year. I think it is likely the board intended (intends?) to appoint her as new party leader coming Thursday. However, things are getting more difficult for the board now, and I am unsure Vestering will want to stick her head out for this. EDIT: Apparently I missed that Vestering announced she will leave parliament this afternoon, and will do so directly.

[DavidB.]

People who love animals so much often seem to have serious issues when with dealing with human beings

This is more the norm than the exception in Dutch politics though. From BIJ1 to FVD and from CDA to JA21 to DENK, they've all had big internal conflicts over the last few years.

[DavidB.]

The PvdD board will resign and Ouwehand will be nominated as leading candidate. The board says it still stands behind its choice and doesn't find Ouwehand to be a suitable leader, but only makes these far-reaching decisions because of "all the commotion".

On its way out, the board will still compose the draft list for the upcoming election, however. They could make a list including people hostile to Ouwehand. The board will also name the people of the interim board, who are also likely to be close to the founders.

[DavidB.]

Forum for Democracy issued a press statement announcing a press conference tomorrow at 5PM for their list and manifesto. They are describing the long road of the party and talking about the organization entering the "next phase". They heavily imply someone else than Baudet will be their leading candidate ("our new manifesto and our new list and leading candidate"). Baudet is hardly in love with the job as MP, so it cannot be ruled out completely, but I believe it when I see it. For now I'm betting on this being a stunt to create some media buzz around them.

https://twitter.com/fvdemocratie/status/1701963335854338250

I think it's astonishing that they've avoided such a blow up for so long - they've been around for a decade with essentially very little drama. By contrast, Volt lasted what - a year in the spotlight before self destructing?

Has thieme herself commented?

They've been around for two decades, even. Failed to get elected in 2003, got elected in 2006. Turns out the issue we've discussed in this thread before - coalition building or not - is one of the key points of disagreement.

Thieme hasn't commented and stays outside the limelight, but it is widely understood that she supports the board and not Ouwehand. They tried to push out Ouwehand in 2010 already, but she won #2 back with the help of the membership.

In the category "oops", #1: Pieter Omtzigt had appointed Onno Aerden as his new spokesman. Then, the internet found out he had called BBB a "tumor that destroys democracy from within" earlier this year. A few hours later, Omtzigt had said goodbye to him. "Shortest The Hague career ever, unfortunately", Aerden responded.

In the category "oops", #2: D66 had presented columnist Yesim Candan as #11. Turns out she had called Sigrid Kaag a "witch" in the column And there Kaag flies away, on her broom and D66 an "elitist party showing a selective understanding of the freedom of speech" before. Hardly a secret, as she had written this publicly. Apparently no one does any vetting anymore, or this suddenly became an issue internally after the media fuss about it even though they did actually know about it. In any case, Candan is out too.

EDIT: Turns out Candan had applied for the list for the municipal elections in Amsterdam in 2018... for Forum for Democracy. The wonderful world of Dutch politics never fails to disappoint this season.

[DavidB.]

Forum for Democracy issued a press statement announcing a press conference tomorrow at 5PM for their list and manifesto. They are describing the long road of the party and talking about the organization entering the "next phase". They heavily imply someone else than Baudet will be their leading candidate ("our new manifesto and our new list and leading candidate"). Baudet is hardly in love with the job as MP, so it cannot be ruled out completely, but I believe it when I see it. For now I'm betting on this being a stunt to create some media buzz around them.

Called it. Baudet will be #1, but with this stunt FVD attracted way more media attention than they would have done otherwise. Incumbent MPs Freek Jansen, Gideon van Meijeren and Pepijn van Houwelingen follow him on the list, with former MP Ralf Dekker at #5. Current MP Simone Kerseboom will not continue as she will be focusing on her family.

[DavidB.]

In a crazy turn of events, Esther Ouwehand was elected #1 on the list with 96% of PvdD voters rejecting a motion to scrap her from the list - and then decided to resign again, pending the investigation which is still ongoing, as she wants her name to be cleared. From what I'm reading she's expected to be back before the election, though, and lead the list. Can't keep up with the details, though. Such a confusing soap.

As for the polls: I still expect something along the lines of a NSC-VVD-BBB minority coalition with only a small coalition agreement and much more room for parliament. I don't think NSC+GL/PvdA is an impossible combination per se, but I don't see how they get (close) to 76. I also expect the VVD to gain some steam in the campaign and for NSC to take some hits - at some point Omtzigt will have to launch his full manifesto and candidate list too.

[DavidB.]

Pieter Omtzigt's New Social Contract (NSC) will run in the entire country. He has presented his list and it is remarkably strong. Former CDA MP and Omtzigt confidant Nicolien van Vroonhoven is #2, judge Judith Uitermark #3, former Dutch career diplomat and ambassador (first to Israel, then to Greece) and EBRD member of the board of directors Caspar Veldkamp #4, and legal expert and early warner about the childcare benefit scandal Sandra Palmen #5.

Other notable names are former CDA MP Eddy van Hijum at #6, former CDA MP Wytske Postma at #11, former VVD MP Folkert Idsinga at #13, well-known NRC columnist and PhD in microbiology Rosanne Hertzberger at #17, and CDA Amsterdam leader Diederik Boomsma at #21. The top 10, top 20 and top 30 all have man/woman parity. The full list can be found here.

[DavidB.]

Wild differences between the I&O and Ipsos polls, particularly on the GL/PvdA vs. D66 numbers, which cannot be explained by statistical noise. Either they're going to herd or one of them will end up having egg on its face.

What we put the odds of a big party "grand coalition" between Omtzigt, GL/PvdA, and VVD? Cause unless something dramatic happens that is guaranteed mathematically viable. It would be the type of deal totally in keeping with the history of Dutch coalitions just going for the simplest option that doesn't bother with the least  (and no testimonial) parties.

As you said, this is the Netherlands with its culture of political compromises, so we definitely cannot rule it out (although note that there was never a coalition of all of CDA/PvdA/VVD together). NSC-GL/PvdA should be a workable combination. But GL/PvdA-VVD gets more tricky.

If GL/PvdA are the biggest party in this combination, the VVD would essentially be seen as caving to the left for the third consecutive time and lose a lot of right-wing voters; note that the VVD electorate in this election is likely to be more right-wing than the electorate in 2021 and 2017. After a classic right-wing VVD campaign, a coalition with GL/PvdA would feel like a broken promise. In terms of policy, it is unlikely the VVD would achieve the desired changes in immigration policy with GL/PvdA, which means they would have caused the previous coalition to collapse for nothing.

If the VVD are the biggest party in this combination, the PvdA would essentially do the exact thing as in 2012: enter a coalition with the very party they view as responsible for most of the problems in the country - as a junior partner, no less. To the PvdA, this is an open wound; in 2017, they went from 38 to 9 seats because of it and they never fully recovered. On the doorstep, voters continue to name the Rutte-II coalition as a reason not to vote for the PvdA anymore. GL/PvdA would be very keen on avoiding a repeat edition.

The only way both problems would be mitigated (but not solved completely) is if NSC become the biggest party - or if they don't, but they get to appoint the Prime Minister anyway.

I think a minority coalition with VVD, NSC and BBB remains the likeliest option because they simply agree a lot more on policy and with Rutte out of the way, the biggest obstacle to NSC-VVD cooperation is also gone. The only problem arises when GL/PvdA become the biggest party or when this three party combination receives too few seats (let's say fewer than 65), so that they would have to count on too many other parties to get anything done.

[DavidB.]

Curious to see what happens to the CDA after the election - from what I can tell Bontenbal and the party’s present platform are vaguely leftish (with emphasis on the ‘ish’). Could there be a link up with the CU at some point to avoid total irrelevance?

Bontenbal gives off very CU vibes indeed. Currently the CDA are still in the stage of "this election we're losing, but the next one will be different, we promise!" Eventually this level of cope will run out together with their seats, though. If they don't find the way up within a few years, they may want to engage in "closer cooperation" with CU indeed.

The question is, however, whether CU would want this. Mergers usually only happen when both/all parties involved are in a negative spiral. The CU aren't doing all that badly right now and have a good long-term perspective. Will they want to tie themselves to the CDA's legacy of corruption, nepotism and bullying? Questionable. This is definitely one to keep an eye on in the coming period, though.

[DavidB.]

One thing that hasn't been mentioned in this thread yet: the recent developments surrounding the PVV. As opposition leader, Wilders was the first speaker again at the most important debate of the year, and he used it to present himself as both the ultimate insider (after the election he will be the longest sitting MP, his MPs mostly have a lot of experience, and this position gives the PVV power and status) and outsider, attacking Sigrid Kaag. His audience clearly appreciated it, as he rose in all polls and now seems to be above his GE21 level - a remarkable feat given the rise of competitors NSC and BBB.

Interestingly, Wilders also attacked FVD leader Baudet, perhaps for the first time. He interrupted Baudet, asking Baudet whether he could rebuke "rumors" (i.e. his own statements) that 9/11 was an inside job and that the moon landing in 1969 had never happened. Baudet of course responded elaborately that he does indeed think the official 9/11 story is extremely unlikely and that the moon landing never happened, although he doesn't claim to know what did happen. Wilders then only said Baudet is "already halfway to the moon", which of course became a video everyone has seen by now.

Afterwards, the problems started for the PVV, though, and it's doubtful whether the last polls have taken this into account already. It started with education spokesman MP Harm Beertema, in parliament since 2010, who rejected spot #16 on the list, said this offer does not show a sufficient level of appreciation, and will be waving parliament goodbye after November.

Then, an internal quarrel broke out over an FVD motion to ban "puberty blockers" and other hormone therapy for children identifying as transgender. FVD are a full-fledged conservative party on issues like these, but the PVV aren't - outgoing MP Harm Beertema spilled the tea on Twitter, saying healthcare spokeswoman Fleur Agema had banned him from speaking his mind on transgender surgeries on children, as Agema thinks it is "clever surgery". Agema later confirmed herself that she thinks this way. "Some children are simply born in the wrong body. You need to treat them before they enter puberty, otherwise it is too late", she said. However, she also said she had not tried to silence Beertema.

Eventually, the PVV parliamentary group split on the issue, with 13 MPs (including Wilders) supporting the motion to ban hormone blockers and 3 MPs (Agema, her partner Leon de Jong, and Madlener) against. The motion was rejected with 28 votes for (all present members of FVD, SGP, JA21, BVNL and DENK, the 13 PVV MPs, and 2 out of 4 BBB MPs: the former JA21 MPs Pouw-Verweij and Eppink) and 111 against (including CDA, CU and Omtzigt).

Apart from the departure of Harm Beertema and Danai van Weerdenburg, the PVV list is very unsurprising: as always, there are few changes, which means the PVV parliamentary group will be even more experienced compared to their colleagues in the next term. #3 Rachel van Meetelen is the exception: she has no political background and is an entrepreneur as a baker of little Dutch pancakes (poffertjes) at travelling funfairs in the Netherlands. A very interesting choice. In any case, Beertema's departure and the quarrel surrounding the transgender-related motion completely overshadowed their presentation of the list. Beertema has also announced he will publish a book critical of the PVV. Wonder whether it will be launched before the election: that could be publicity the PVV very much don't need, especially in a time in which it seemed they had everything going for them.

[DavidB.]

RIP in peace to 50Plus. Like every few years, the elderly had an internal fight - and it seems like it almost became a literal one this time. Today, their party congress closed without an election manifesto or party leader, and the police had to clear the room because security could no longer be guaranteed. According to their former chairman Geert Dales, this means they'll be missing the deadline to stand in the election. In 2021, they still won 106,000 votes and a little over 1% of the vote, but their only MP Liane den Haan left the party within 1.5 month after the election. Now, they'll be out completely. Bye bye!

[DavidB.]

The new PvdD board has concluded Esther Ouwehand's integrity wasn't compromised. Therefore, she's back as leader and will lead the party into the election.

https://twitter.com/estherouwehand/status/1710339084978139341?s=20

[DavidB.]

We're in the silence before the election campaign storm. Today's Peil poll shows a largely stable picture, but PVV keep gaining.