🇳🇱 Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: General Election (Nov 22)

[DavidB.]

Rutte is threatening to collapse the government if other parties do not agree with tightening immigration policies regarding the family reunification of war refugees. Would be a political master stroke. BBB doesn’t have the candidates. GL-PvdA aren’t ready, and their dream candidate Timmermans will still be in Brussels until next year. D66 has collapsed in the polls. JA21 and PVV would lose firepower if the VVD act tough on immigration. It would make all the sense in the world for Rutte to call it now and call it over this issue. I suppose the election would then take place in September. But so far negotiations are still taking place. The proposed changes in policy are unacceptable to CU and D66, but Rutte would have a majority for them in parliament together with CDA and the right-wing opposition. However, that would probably mean the end of the government.

[DavidB.]

I agree. But that difficulty of building a coalition is likely to remain. The only difference will be that opponents (Timmermans, BBB) will be more ready. But it is true: if the VVD now make this government collapse, it will be almost impossible for Rutte to govern with any party to the left of the CDA. It’s a massive gamble. But there is no better issue better for him to let the government collapse on than asylum and immigration.

[DavidB.]

Dutch media claim the government has indeed collapsed: https://nos.nl/artikel/2481938-bronnen-kabinet-valt-geen-akkoord-over-asielmaatregelen.

https://twitter.com/lientje1967/status/1677379950620590080

[DavidB.]

So, snap elections in September?

Most probably. Journalists are waiting for clarification outside the government's offices. Live stream here: https://nos.nl/livestream/2481937-kijk-mee-live-beelden-uit-den-haag.

[DavidB.]

https://twitter.com/MarjoleinMoor/status/1677382252676669441
The first barely concealed job application for PvdA/GL leader is in. Marjolein Moorman (PvdA) is alder(wo)man for education in Amsterdam and led the PvdA in the 2022 local election there, in which they managed to become the biggest political force in the capital again after 4 years as junior partner for GL.

[DavidB.]

The Central Election Committee now states elections would probably indeed take place in the middle of November because of the summer holidays. Absolutely ridiculous - and probably dangerous for the VVD, as who knows how long the issue of immigration remains the #1 issue.

Meanwhile, Geert Wilders wants to cooperate with Rutte again, singing a radically different tune than in the years before: "We have to let go of our egos", he states. Very smart: he opens the lane to a right-wing government (VVD-BBB-PVV-JA21, perhaps CDA) and I don't see how Rutte can reject this offer. By doing so, he once again occupies the space he left after 2012.

[DavidB.]

The Central Election Committee now states elections would probably indeed take place in the middle of November because of the summer holidays.

What? How complicated can things be? What on earth should take so long compared to all other civilized countries?

Your questions are my questions...

The leaders of PvdA and GL announced their intention to run together. Everyone had already assumed it and nobody is surprised, but this is still a massive step.

Rutte is about to do a press conference.

[DavidB.]

Rutte: "Differences on migration cannot be bridged, I will directly send a letter of resignation on behalf of the entire government to the King tonight."

[DavidB.]

Rutte emphasizes the decision to pull the plug was made by all four parties and is very explicit in thanking the coalition partners for the cooperation, praises the coalition's achievements. Clearly goes for the statesmanlike line again, but this may also leave the door open to future cooperation in the most Ruttian of ways. Doesn't "frame" position of CU or D66. Probably doesn't have to - most voters agree with him.

[DavidB.]

BBB want a right-wing coalition with the SP in it. Pieter Omtzigt announced he will decide on his future in "a number of weeks".

[DavidB.]

BBB want a right-wing coalition with the SP in it. Pieter Omtzigt announced he will decide on his future in "a number of weeks".

SP is a socialist party (it´s literally their name). They are not going to be part of any economical right wing coalition.

I was just posting what Van der Plas said, live at NOS. Personally, I am not so sure the SP would not join a coalition with significantly more right-wing parties. In the last general election campaign, they didn't fully exclude the possibility of cooperating with the VVD. I think cooperating with the PVV would be a bridge too far for the SP, but VVD-BBB-CDA-JA21-SP with a moderate economic policy and a significant reduction of copayments in healthcare should be an option. BBB are not that neoliberal either.

[DavidB.]

Peil.nl pollster Maurice de Hond in March: BBB would stand to win 33 seats, if Omtzigt joins it'd be 53. If Omtzigt were to run alone, he'd win 38 seats with BBB at 17, so the parts are still bigger than the sum. Problem for them: good luck finding suitable candidates.
https://twitter.com/mauricedehond/status/1677571534313992192

[DavidB.]

That is the old poll from March. In de hond's latest poll BBB is at 27 (and there are other polls which have them lower, at 23 or 24 and VVD as the largest party).

You're right. Corrected. Still, I think the picture would be similar, although perhaps BBB have won some hypothetical votes from Omtzigt or vice versa.

To me, a scenario in which Omtzigt does not join BBB but starts his own party, splitting up the field, seems most likely. In this scenario, there are four serious contenders for biggest party: BBB, Omtzigt, VVD and GL/PvdA (not necessarily in this order). Behind those four, the field would be scattered spectacularly, with a ton of parties below 10 seats. There are too many parties with a massive problem.

Today, it was officially announced that GL and PvdA members will vote in a referendum on going into the election with one slate of candidates and one manifesto. Some speculation has also started about the name. I am praying that it will become something sensible like Red Green (the obvious choice, also the name of the movement within these two parties to merge) or, looking at history (the 70s, specifically), something like Progressive Agreement or Progressive People's Party. And I am dreading some type of marketing term - on Twitter, "SCL GRN", "LYNX" and "prgrss." were coined, which would be unbearable. To be continued...

Tomorrow, parliament will return from recess to debate the resignation of the government. Opposition parties have announced they will introduce a motion of no confidence against Rutte, which would force him to resign as demissionary Prime Minister. This would require at least one of D66, CDA and CU to support this. But if this happens, all of the VVD ministers will likely resign and the VVD can retaliate by voting out their former coalition partners' demissionary ministers too, as long as the opposition parties support such motions of no confidence as well. BBB leader Van der Plas has announced her support for this motion of no confidence as she "does not want Rutte to campaign on migration from the PM office". But in practice, I wonder whether this motion wouldn't make the campaign more VVD centered, and whether it wouldn't open the door for Rutte to act more oppositionally.

[DavidB.]

Any chance of PvdA going into government with BBB? They were able to do so at the regional elections despite the GL agreement, so could the same happen nationally?

Yes. People here will say I'm crazy, but so did they when I predicted such coalitions right after the PS election, and I turned out to be right. I think BBB+Omtzigt+PvdA+GL is not an impossible coalition, although more difficult nationally than provincially. If the VVD don't come first, they may want to be in opposition, and Omtzigt+CDA is actually going to be almost impossible. This means the numerical path to a right-wing government (VVD-BBB-CDA-PVV-JA21 or something along these lines) could be closed off, while the numerical path to a left-wing government will never even be there to begin with. PvdA-GL may be so big that they are too difficult to ignore, and in the end grand coalitions like these are also part of the Dutch tradition, with 2012 as both a recent and an infamous example.

But it's all very difficult to say, with so many unknowns surrounding the election. In Italy and France, people talk about different "republics" after a severe shakeup of the system. This is about the magnitude of the seismic shift that is going to happen in the Netherlands. This will be the final nail in the coffin of the system with the three people's parties CDA, PvdA and VVD dominating.

[DavidB.]

Apparently things are moving quickly in The Hague and it looks like at least one of the coalition partners is willing to vote Rutte out (alongside, presumably, all of the opposition, perhaps minus SGP and JA21). This would change the dynamics of the election. On the one hand, Rutte cannot act "statesmanlike" by using the office to campaign, like he prefers to do. On the other hand, it would allow him to play the victim and point at his "left-wing" coalition partners for punishing him over being tough on immigration, enabling him to present himself as a champion of the right.

Another question would be: who replaces Rutte? In principle, this position would go to another VVD minister - Dilan Yesilgöz, Minister of Justice & Security (and responsible for the initial rounds of talks on immigration), would be the most obvious candidate. It would make her the first female Prime Minister and the first Prime Minister with a non-European foreign background, and it would also be a unique opportunity to see how the VVD could move on from the Rutte era. However, the VVD could also decide to leave the government altogether in support of party leader Rutte, leaving a rump government consisting of D66, CDA and CU with Prime Minister Sigrid Kaag (D66). This would certainly strengthen D66 vis-a-vis GroenLinks-PvdA and perhaps - ironically - help Rutte that way, as it could enable the VVD to sail past both of these parties in the election. The most hilariously twisted detail: Geert Wilders, Kaag's nemesis, could make her our new Prime Minister tomorrow evening.

[DavidB.]

He governed like Merkel and fell like Merkel

Merkel chose her own moment, though. Rutte didn't.

Does Rutte resigning help (voters tired of him return to VVD) or hurt (lack of an experienced leader causes voters to look for other options) VVD's chances in the election?

I suppose it depends who replaces him. Any word on who that might be (he's literally the only name I know from the party)?

It will most probably hurt the VVD, which had turned into the Rutte machine. The most obvious candidate to replace him seems Dilan Yesilgöz, Minister of Justice & Security. Another option would be former parliamentary group leader Klaas Dijkhoff, who had quit politics in 2021 but still has his share of admirers and who is more on the left of the party; and Edith Schippers, former Healthcare Minister who is more right-wing on immigration than Rutte but more socially liberal, but who screwed up the Senate campaign earlier this year.

Less likely candidates are Sophie Hermans, current parliamentary group leader, but unpopular and seen as incompetent with the public; Vincent Karremans, leader of the VVD in Rotterdam; and Christianne van der Wal, former party chairwoman, current Minister for Nature and Nitrogen, deeply unpopular with farmers but admired by social liberals and more green elements within the party.

Edit: After the collapse of the coalition but before Rutte's announcement today, 1Vandaag did a poll among GE21 VVD voters about which potential candidates they consider "acceptable" as leading candidate in the next election. Karremans, Becker and Aartsen have low name recognition. Hermans and Van der Wal have high name recognition but still a very low acceptability rate. Opinions on Schippers are mixed. Dijkhoff and Yesilgöz would be frontrunners, based on this.
https://twitter.com/JeroenKester/status/1678324619776860160

[DavidB.]

Have to say I still have to get over the initial shock of all of this. For years it felt like nothing happened. Leaves me with very mixed feelings.

Wow; it didn't seem like he was particularly doomed or anything. The smart money at least seemed to be that the van der Plas/Omtzigt challenge had lots of problems and Rutte was likely to get another term; I guess he ran out of drive, or something. End of an era.

I guess he figured he was doomed because:

1) He had lost the spin game of the collapse of the coalition in the newspapers; he guessed he could successfully blame CU but he didn't succeed at it.
2) BBB and/or Omtzigt are set to win more votes than the VVD
3) Too many parties refuse to cooperate with him specifically, leading to a potential Netanyahu scenario which doesn't fit the Netherlands and its consensus-based political culture, and which he perhaps doesn't have the energy for - it's a lost battle

I fully expect him to chair the EU Council (suits him best, as Zinneke said) or NATO.

[DavidB.]

I think it'll be hard to elect a NATO SG that isn't a Central or Eastern European or a woman, preferably both, and if they do Ben Wallace is much more popular in C & E Europe and will be more acceptable for them.

Rutte's crusade against Poland (and Hungary, but less important) as well as his troubled history with Erdogan (see 2017 election campaign) won't help him either. On the other hand, who the Americans want matters too. But I think the Council is more likely and suits him better.

[DavidB.]

Schippers, the David Miliband of VVD, has ruled herself out of the VVD list leader position.

And so did Dijkhoff now. This means Yesilgöz should be considered the frontrunner. The VVD board will announce its “preferred candidate” this week still. However, there will probably be an election: former MP André Bosman, with a military background, declared himself a candidate too, and according to the rules of procedure there will be an internal election if there is more than one candidate.

[DavidB.]

Former Defense Minister Jeanine Hennis, also known for binge drinking and throwing up in the tv show House Ibiza, is also not available for the VVD leadership.

[DavidB.]

- VVD parliamentary group leader Sophie Hermans has now also declined running. Yesterday, she was the subject of a remarkable video by the communist vlogging channel Left Laser, in which the VVD's head of communication Kees Berghuis - who has one of the biggest offices in all of parliament, bigger than most VVD MPs, reflecting his massive influence - got so angry he decided to aggressively take his microphone away.

https://twitter.com/LeftLaser/status/1678657648315465728?s=20

- Relations between the CDA and D66 have soured too. CDA Senator and former MP Madeleine van Toorenburg voiced her thoughts on D66 leader Sigrid Kaag, who had threatened Rutte with a motion of no confidence. Van Toorenburg: "Sod off to the UN!"

https://twitter.com/WNLHaagseLobby/status/1678490967832162307?s=20

- For PvdA/GL, rumor has it that Frans Timmermans only wants the top job. He doesn't want to leave Brussels just to enter Dutch parliament or become "just another" minister. Therefore, he would be their "candidate for Prime Minister" but not be the #1 on the joint list - so he would only leave Brussels when PvdA/GL actually get the PM position. Jesse Klaver could then be #1 on the list. PvdA/GL hope this scenario would still attract Timmermans-friendly voters, even without him on the ballot.

- The CDA is in a bad shape and the names going around to replace Wopke Hoekstra as party leader reflect this - they include junior MPs Henri Bontenbal (energy and climate) and the relatively visible Derk Boswijk (agriculture, foreign affairs, defense), the invisible Deputy Minister of Infrastructure Vivianne Heijnen, and, interestingly, Mona Keijzer, who lost her job as Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs in Rutte-IV over publicly voicing her opposition to the COVID passport system.

[DavidB.]

^ Please remove that long quote with the tweets in it or cut it down to the things you're responding to.

Dilan Yesilgöz is in.
https://twitter.com/DilanYesilgoz/status/1678981726247215109?s=20

[DavidB.]

And Sigrid Kaag is out. She will not lead D66 another time.

[DavidB.]

Starting to feel like all the leadership turnover clears the way for a fairly different lineup of top parties compared to last election. PVV will still be up there, but now a BBB v. "Red-Green" (v. Omzigt?) race looks somewhat more likely.

Absolutely. My cautious working assumption - so much is still going to happen and there are so many unknown unknowns - is that BBB, RedGreen and Omtzigt's project will be the three biggest parties - not sure in what order. The VVD have a higher floor than any other party and will always get at least 15 seats, so they would be fourth (could get bigger than either BBB or Omtzigt if one takes too many votes from the other). Then there will be a whole number of small parties below 10 seats.

I also think the PVV is going to take a nosedive, though, unless a gamechanger happens (i.e. they could realistically be in the coalition). Many of their voters will leave for BBB - perhaps they can mitigate the bleeding if immigration stays a top issue, but even then they will lose seats.

--

The general board of the VVD and all heads of regions have unanimously nominated Dilan Yesilgoz as VVD top candidate: "A power woman bursting of energy and ideas to become the captain of our club." This is receiving more attention than I had expected, although Sigrid Kaag's departure is now the subject number one.
https://twitter.com/EricWetzels/status/1679411861274472448

For D66, parliamentary group leader Jan Paternotte has decided not to run for leading candidate. This probably means Minister for Climate and Energy Rob Jetten will lead the party. As parliamentary group leader (2017-2021), he was the architect of their "green" turn both on climate and on agriculture (outflanking GL on its signature issue), which laid the basis for the 2021 election victory. It was already rumored he would lead the party back then, but when Kaag entered the picture he was eager to step aside for her and was rewarded with his position as minister in Rutte-IV. D66 has a massive problem, but they also have better strategists than RedGreen, clearer ideas, a clearer support base, and a load of cash. I wouldn't be surprised if Jetten did more decently than we would now expect.

Meanwhile, in smaller party news, JA21 MP Nicki Pouw-Verweij has decided not to be a candidate for the party anymore - unclear whether she'll quit altogether or stay in politics, but go elsewhere. Pouw-Verweij, who holds a PhD in medicine, is part of the conservative faction of the party and is known as a hard-working MP who always has her facts together. She had voiced criticism of the lack of internal democracy and professionalism within the party before. With her leaving, the party is on life support. It is doubtful whether they'll even win any more seats than in GE21.

[DavidB.]

This morning, Minister for Climate and Energy Rob Jetten officially declared his candidacy for leading candidate for D66. He was immediately endorsed by fellow party members Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren, Education Minister Robbert Dijkgraaf and Deputy Minister for Mining Hans Vijlbrief. In other words, a carbon copy of the scenario within the VVD: they're set on one candidate and it'll be him.

Meanwhile, Jesse Klaver has become a member of the PvdA and explained in a Volkskrant op-ed why: he believes we live in a new era of pillarization (based on social class and education level) and that people from different pillars uniting in one party is needed for change, and he believes only if the left work together a breakthrough towards a system that is less about individualism and more about solidarity can be created.

https://twitter.com/jesseklaver/status/1679734863237111810?s=20

The election will take place on Wednesday November 22.

And the exodus continues: Carola Schouten (ChristenUnie) will finish her term as demissionary Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Anti-Poverty Policy, Participation and Pensions and then quit politics. In the previous government, Schouten had the ungrateful task to be Minister of Agriculture, which seemed boring until the Council of State presented its landmark ruling on nitrogen in 2019, leading to massive farmers' protests. This means the Prime Minister and all three Deputy Prime Ministers are quitting politics. After Kaag's departure it was already clear that all four coalition parties were to have a  new party leader in the next election.