MS-S/NBC-Marist: Hyde-Smith in the lead, wins Runoff

[DavidB.]

Toss-up remains Toss-up.

lol

And if it were just Hyde-Smith vs. Espy in a normal November election, there's a slight chance the race could slip under the radar and Espy could pull it off with a big enthusiasm gap. 

No, because this is Mississippi, aka inelastic af.

[DavidB.]

This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".

AL was exceptional because of Roy Moore and his unique scandals. As long as Cindy Hyde-Smith doesn't turn out to have a similarly murky past, she will be fine.

[DavidB.]

This has some serious AL-SEN 2017 potential in the runoff, especially if Republicans stay home, so don’t count your chickens before they are hatched. AL was also considered "inelastic" before Jones won, and pretty much nobody thought Hogan would be able to win in a landslide because of Maryland's "inelasticity", so "inelastic" is a term just as nebulous/meaningless as "candidate quality".

AL was exceptional because of Roy Moore and his unique scandals. As long as Cindy Hyde-Smith doesn't turn out to have a similarly murky past, she will be fine.

The enthusiasm gap/turnout differential played a key role as well, and Democrats have a much higher floor in MS than AL. I’m not saying she’ll lose, but she’s not Romney-level safe.

You were saying it's a tossup. It's not. It's likely R.

[DavidB.]

You were saying it's a tossup. It's not. It's likely R.

Yes, everyone’s entitled to their own ratings, and I generally like to be cautious when there’s a lot of uncertainty involved.

I get that. But saying it's a tossup is really pushing it. Lean R I can understand. And of course you decide on your own ratings. Feel free to make it safe D for all I care. But if you're going to say it here, people will respond to it (and let's be honest, that's what you want too).