European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[DavidB.]

So, if Brexit ends up being delayed, that would mean that the UK would participate in this election after all, correct? What would then happen to the new seat distribution?

I think we would still have the old seat distribution, and if the UK then does leave, the UK seats are reapportioned according to the current plan, which means the UK's MEPs are replaced by rEU MEPs.

[DavidB.]

These are unchartered waters so everything is speculative, but it seems that they have to hold an election if they're still in on E-day even if they leave later on (and even if we know when). However, ultimately any political agreement on this will count.

[DavidB.]

At ALDE's congress in late 2018, they said that their lead candidates would be announced in Berlin in early 2019. I can see that they have planned a ALDE Party Council in Berlin this Saturday, so we can presume that their candidates will be presented there.

Isn't this bound to be Verhofstadt if we haven't heard any other signals yet?

If LA unexpectedly does win a seat, would they be in ALDE or ECR? I guess ALDE?

[DavidB.]

FVD have applied for membership in ACRE and its parliamentary group ECR. Dutch CU and SGP are also in ECR. SGP probably won't have a problem sitting with FVD, but CU leader Gert-Jan Segers said he intends to block FVD's application to ECR since supporting Nexit would be incompatible with ECR's mission to reform the European Union. An interesting statement given that the biggest party in the ECR parliamentary group explicitly campaigned on leaving the European Union in the last general election, and the Sweden Democrats still supported Swexit when they joined ECR too.

But it is unclear whether CU can actually block FVD from joining. CU are not in the overarching European ACRE party, and supposedly ECR, French Debout La France and FVD are signing a joint declaration on Europe's future today - which would seem like a first step towards FVD joining ECR. FVD will bring 2-3 seats to the table and CU only one, so I can imagine CU would just be told to shove it. Once the Tories leave, ECR seems too right-wing for them anyway (though their European MP Peter van Dalen is very much on the conservative side of the party, unlike Segers). To be continued.

[DavidB.]

FVD seem likely to join ECR now: ECR leading candidate Jan Zahradil (ODS, Czechia) and PiS prominent Ryszard Legutko are sharing the stage with Thierry Baudet in Paris today, and CU don't actually seem to have a veto. According to NRC Handelsblad, an ECR meeting on FVD joining escalated: CU MEP Peter van Dalen attempted to block FVD's attempt to join, but there was little understanding for his position and Sweden Democrats MEP Peter Lundgren made it clear to him that CU only has one seat and FVD has much more potential, upon which Van Dalen would have left the meeting with slamming doors. NRC note that CU may be on the way out, to EPP.

[DavidB.]

Following the Swedish Moderates' call on the EPP to sever ties with Fidesz, which was more or less supported by the Finnish NCP (KOK) who want "next steps" to be considered to "evaluate Fidesz' membership in EPP", four parties have now introduced a motion to expel Fidesz from the parliamentary group. The four parties are Belgian CD&V and cdH, Luxembourgish CSV, and Portuguese CDS-PP - the latter have written their own letter separate from the former three. The Dutch CDA support the motion introduced by their Benelux EPP partners. But it remains to be seen whether this will go anywhere in an increasingly right-wing EPP with parties such as PP, GERB, HDZ, Les Republicains and the ÖVP. Ultimately, as is often the case, CDU-CSU will probably have the biggest say on this question.

[DavidB.]

Do the non-EU parties have the right to vote on this? Because parties such as SNS (Serbia) and VMRO-DPMNE (North Macedonia) are pro-Fidesz

No, they don't - otherwise it would indeed undoubtedly be easier for Fidesz.

[DavidB.]

CD&V, cdH, CSV, CDA, CDS-PP, KOK and M now officially support a vote on the expulsion of Fidesz from EPP, which means it's happening: the threshold of seven parties from five countries has been reached.

[DavidB.]

CD&V, cdH, CSV, CDA, CDS-PP, KOK and M now officially support a vote on the expulsion of Fidesz from EPP, which means it's happening: the threshold of seven parties from five countries has been reached.

Hope the other members are sensible and shut down this nonsense.

Hope not. Fidesz are too good for the EPP, which mostly consists of parties that until this day carry out policies that are wrecking our continent. Their expulsion should be the catalyst to form one big right-wing Euroskeptic group, uniting ENF, EFD and ECR, that would even have a shot at coming first. Probably won't happen because of silly egos, but it should.

[DavidB.]

DPP lead candidate Peter Kofod Poulsen, who first received media attention when he started the site "Report an Eastern European" where people could report suspicious behaviour from Eastern Europeans, is now called Peter Kofod Hristov after his marriage to a Bulgarian citizen.

Classic Geert. In 2012 he started a hotline to report cases of nuisance by "MOE-landers": people from Central and Eastern Europe. Wilders is married to a Hungarian.

[DavidB.]

Europe should be more like Spain imo

Saving this for the day PP-Cs-Vox is formed

[DavidB.]

I assume the chances of Estonian EKRE joining ECR are bigger if the coalition negotiations with Center and Isamaa succeed. If not, ENF might be the likeliest option.

This isn't a joke: if the UK have EU elections after all, UKIP plans to put the YouTuber Sargon of Akkad on its list.

Don't they have Tommy Robinson too?

Angelika Mlinar, who was elected a MEP in Austria in 2014 for NEOS, is running in Slovenia for Stranka Alenke Bratušek in 2019. Mlinar has Carinthian Slovene heritage. I'm not sure I have seen other incumbent MEPs run in another country this year?

Former Dutch VVD European Commissioner Neelie Kroes is running for Flemish Open VLD, but she doesn't actually plan on getting elected (and would presumably not take her seat in case she does get elected). Of course, in the past we've seen Cohn-Bendit pull the same trick.

[DavidB.]

Lega, AfD, Finns Party, Danish People's Party and Estonian EKRE have now joined EAPN.

Dutch FVD leader for the EP Derk Jan Eppink has ruled out joining EAPN, calling potential cooperation with French Rassemblement National (RN) "a bridge too far" in an interview in Trouw. Eppink assumes RN and Dutch PVV will join EAPN. For FVD, Eppink aims at joining ECR or entering an alliance with Farage's Brexit Party.

So what is the diffrence between UKIP and the Brexit party? Is UKIP going to join the new EAPN? Brexitparty will save EFDD?

Not sure about EFDD, but Brexit = Farage's thing, UKIP = now further right (will probably join EAPN).

[DavidB.]

The FPÖ has also joined EAPN.

David, do you know if Holland (which votes on Thursday I think) will embargo their results until Sunday and if there will be an exit poll on Thursday this time, or not ?

I think we will have an embargo but also an exit poll, yes. Last time around, popular contrarian blog GeenStijl made its own exit poll, which was very accurate. I contributed to it by sending them the results of the polling station in which I counted - which was legal.

[DavidB.]

Slovak Sme Rodina joined EAPN. This means they now have members from the required seven EU member states and can form a group.

[DavidB.]

Of course the United Kingdom is going to send some right-wing populist loons to the European Parliament as a lovely parting gift, as if the ideology still makes any logical sense in the country given the last two years. I hope they're out of the EU by the next election, which I now can see not happening honestly.

You do realise that stopping the idiotic Brexit project would be a huge (and richly deserved) embarrassment for right-wing populist loons?

It really wouldn't be, at least not for eurosceptics in the EU27. Brexit actually leading to an economic disaster for the UK would be the worst outcome. Brexit succeeding would be the best outcome. While Brexit not happening would be outrageous morally from a democratic point of view, it would not be all that bad for eurosceptics purely in terms of effect. First, the EU issue would only have become more salient in the UK and ~50% still oppose it, meaning that the country would still sabotage further integration under any Conservative (and perhaps even Corbyn) government. Second, we would have one more argument to portray the EU as the "Hotel California" that you aren't even allowed to leave, comparable to the USSR perhaps. Referendums are simply ignored. Wait for the next economic downturn and euro crisis and you have a powerful argument.

[DavidB.]

The candidates and lists for the Dutch EP election are now official. The incumbent 9 parties are ranked based on their number of votes last time.

1. Democraten 66 (D66)
2. CDA - Europese Volkspartij
3. PVV (Partij voor de Vrijheid)
4. VVD
5. SP (Socialistische Partij)
6. P.v.d.A./Europese Sociaaldemocraten
7. ChristenUnie-SGP
8. GROENLINKS
9. Partij voor de Dieren
10. 50 PLUS
11. JEZUS LEEFT
12. DENK
13. De Groenen
14. Forum voor Democratie
15. vandeRegio & Piratenpartij
16. Volt Nederland

CU-SGP and CDA have a surplus vote agreement, as do GL and PvdA. Not sure how, as these have been abolished in other elections.

The first 9 and Forum will get in, 50Plus seems the only maybe. That's 10 or 11 parties for 26 seats.

My estimate would be:

Forum voor Democratie-ECR 3-6 (now 0)
VVD-ALDE 3-5 (now 3)
GL-G/EFA 3-4 (now 2)
CDA-EPP 3-4 (now 5)
PvdA-S&D 2-4 (now 3)
D66-ALDE 2-3 (now 4)
CU/SGP-ECR 2-3 (now 2); the CU MEP may go to EPP once Forum join ECR.
PVV-ENF 1-3 (now 4); will probably sit in the new EAPN group
SP-GUE/NGL 2 (now 2)
PvdD-GUE/NGL 1-2 (now 1)
50Plus 0-1 (now 0); could either go to ALDE (their #1 used to be a VVD MEP) or perhaps join something weird led by M5S or so

The turnout gap between general elections and European elections is almost the highest in the Netherlands (I think it's only bigger in Slovakia). This should help parties that rely on older voters, mostly CDA and PvdA. The PVV may be totally screwed over by a combination of lack of momentum and the fact that their higher-propensity voters are exactly the first ones moving to Forum. But the PVV's EU stance seems more clear to the public than Forum's, which may help them with eurosceptics unconvinced of Forum's credentials.

[DavidB.]

KPÖ+ (Communist Party) election posters:

Clown world.

[DavidB.]

1. Konfederacja (Korwin [self explanatory], Ruch Narodowy [nationalists], Skuteczni [Kukiz rapper-based spin-off], Pobudka [Grzegorz Braun organisation, Catholic monarchists], Federacja dla Rzeczypospolitej [beer magnate, ex-Kukiz Marek Jakubiak party, conlib] and some more minor political movements).

Would the far-right Confederacy list split up after the election or remain one parliamentary group? Do you think they'd be likely to join the EAPN alliance?

[DavidB.]

Yeah, I also got the impression that Korwin is on the less extreme side of this alliance. From what I gathered (which isn't much, so correct me if I'm wrong) Braun and the Ruch Narodowy seem especially (and especially explicitly, which may be the main issue for EAPN here) antisemitic, which is kind of a dealbreaker these days. I didn't get the impression that Korwin is all that antisemitic though; is he?

[DavidB.]

When confronted with the term "population exchange" being a Neo-Nazi term, Strache says:

"That's a concept of reality. We do not want to become a minority in our own homeland. That is legitimate and honest and deeply democratic. Only where someone tries to enforce his political goals by force, it is right-wing extremism, which of course has no place in a democracy."

Sure, just a far-right conspiracy theory. Nothing to see here: https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/innenpolitik/5495901/Wiener-Schulen_51-Prozent-haben-nicht-Deutsch-als-Umgangssprache.

[DavidB.]

As if Vox want to be in the EPP. It's going to be ECR or EAPN.

[DavidB.]

Ads for the Dutch parties have now been put up - in the cities the government does this, in a Dutch, orderly manner. Apparently they don't want posters everywhere.

[DavidB.]

Best campaign slogan IMO "Jesus Yes, EU No"

This dude does seem like a genuinely good guy: https://youtu.be/G6vq7c8eSl8.

In the category "weird Dutch parties", in the last European election in 2014 there was also a (considerably less likeable) party named the "IQ: the Rights and Duties Party" which managed to get on the ballot and therefore received time to advertise on tv on primetime, in which this old German dude with a heavy German accent peddled a bizarre conspiracy theory about Ashkenazi multimillionaires using brown people as weapons of mass destruction (not even paraphrasing here). But apparently this dude gave up his hopes to sit with his ideological friend in the German NPD, as he isn't on the ballot this time.

[DavidB.]

Ipsos for EenVandaag, the Netherlands:

VVD 5 (+2)
Forum voor Democratie 5 (+5)
CDA 3 (-2)
GroenLinks 3 (+1)
D66 2 (-2)
PVV 2 (-2)
PvdA 2 (-1)
CU-SGP 2
SP 1 (-1)
PvdD 1
50Plus 0
DENK 0