Politics and Elections in the Netherlands: Rutte III era

[DavidB.]

Problems in Amsterdam, where polling station workers in a precinct in West apparently "advise" Turkish voters to vote for DENK and accompany them in the voting booth, and in Nijmegen, where many people received four instead of two voting cards, allowing them to vote twice. Turnout is apparently really high in Amsterdam, where BIJ1, DENK and FvD have caused the campaign to be highly polarized, but similar to the 2014 election in the other big cities.

https://twitter.com/goossensjohan/status/976449247049547777?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&...

Just voted in parliament, for Group De Mos and against the Law on the Intelligence and Security Services.

[DavidB.]

^ All good, thank you for your response.

16:30: referendum turnout 26.6% in Rotterdam, 24.6% in The Hague and 30% in Utrecht. As expected, the 30% threshold for the referendum result to be valid will therefore easily be reached. The referendum map will be really interesting.

In Maastricht, turnout for the local election was 25% and turnout for the referendum 26% at 16:30. As non-Dutch EU nationals are eligible to vote in the local elections but not in the referendum, and as they turn out at a lower rate than Dutch people, turnout for the referendum might end up slightly higher than turnout for the local election in the big cities (and middle-sized cities with many internationals, such as Maastricht), where many non-Dutch EU nationals live.

[DavidB.]

The only PVV candidate on Urk has the fash haircut, and the local party that's big on the council there are exactly as Christian like the SGP. That's what I know about the race there. And, indeed, it is trending SGP.

At 18:00, turnout for the local election in The Hague was 33.8% compared to 38% in 2014. In Rotterdam, turnout was 32.1%, higher than four years ago, when it was 31%. Both places are probably not going to reach 50% this time. Amsterdam had 35% turnout compared to 27.5% in 2014, so much higher this time.

[DavidB.]

Is there any single site with election returns from across the country where we could follow? Or is it all fragmented?

Nos.nl will have a clickable map with the returns from all municipalities.

[DavidB.]

Looks like the PVV font to me. Anyhow, I am genuinely interested to see whether the exit polls will work this time, and whether Dionne Stax will still present them. Also lol @ the inclusion of Weert and Emmen. Obvious that they don't want to come across as Randstad-centric.

Meanwhile, NRC Handelsblad and De Telegraaf journalists have been denied entry to the DENK event.

[DavidB.]

I have a gut feeling  that anything can happen with the referendum, and that we might be surprised...

[DavidB.]

Referendum maps will be beautiful (normal Atlas poster)

[DavidB.]

I guess the civic belt and suburbs will be in favor, cities against; in the south, divide between areas that are doing better (eastern brabant, more in favor) and areas that are doing worse might be visible.

[DavidB.]

Polling station where I'm counting massively against (65% or so). Lower middle-class The Hague, PVV-VVD-DENK in GE17. Ethnically mixed area. You heard it here first!

[DavidB.]

Partial, but looks very accurate, probably includes almost all precincts. We have a very big polling station and just sent our results one minute ago.

[DavidB.]

No posts anymore? Keep me updated guise

[DavidB.]

32/63 against in Amsterdam

[DavidB.]

Finally home.

Referendum now 48.7%-47.6% with "against" in the lead. Will be tight. I hope the big cities can make the difference, but usually betting on cities outvoting rural areas isn't a smart thing to do...

In Tilburg, FvD-endorsed Lijst Smolders doubled in size from five to ten seats. With Leefbaar's share of the vote holding up pretty well despite the PVV's participation, FvD winning two or three seats in Amsterdam, local parties gaining again and becoming the largest party in many (most?) municipalities, and the referendum being unexpectedly tight, the "party cartel" isn't having a great night: fragmentation weakens their position the most. At the same time, it has to be said that the VVD made some gains that are impressive after almost eight year in government.

The Hague voted 53.9-41.5 against, Rotterdam by 57.4%-38.5%.

[DavidB.]

Really happy with this result. De Mos and the VVD should now form a government, perhaps with CDA and D66. Absolutely brutal for the PVV. Shows that PVV voters do notice when the party performs well: only a small loss in Almere (from 9 to 7 seats is not great, but respectable), where they are generally doing a good job at representing voters, and huge losses in The Hague, where they are absolutely useless and an embarrassment. Apart from this, 15 parties is really a lot... and 3 Muslim parties with 1 seat each, lol.

[DavidB.]

Pollster De Hond (peil.nl) is calling it for "against", as Amsterdam still has to come in and "for" cannot make up for the difference. I'm inclined to think he's right, but don't know if that's wishful thinking. Outside the north, the NOS map is really very blue...

[DavidB.]

Rotterdam:
Leefbaar 11 (-3)
VVD 5 (+2)
PvdA 5 (-3)
D66 5 (-1)
GL 5 (+3)
DENK 3 (+3)
NIDA 2 (nc)
SP 2 (-3)
CDA 2 (-1)
PVV 2 (+2)
PvdD 1 (nc)
50Plus 1 (nc)
CU-SGP 1 (nc)

Leefbaar-VVD-CDA-D66 have a majority: 23 seats. The former Left Alliance are at 14. Together with D66 they reach 19, but from there it would become damn difficult. Muslim parties got well over 10% of the vote. The loss of the SP feels especially good to me. Leo de Kleijn is really an a**hole and deserved to lose for going full intersectionalist and continuing to embrace NIDA instead of following Lilian Marijnissen's more "workerite" way. Working-class voters were right to reject the SP Rotterdam.

[DavidB.]

In Amsterdam, GL-D66-PvdA have a majority; I'd be really surprise if they would not form a coalition.

[DavidB.]

Against is probably going to win. I dont see how for can overcome Amsterdam and the student cities with the vote left

The map is really interesting, with the opposing coalition formed of highly educated young people and minorities on the one hand and voters for non/anti-establishment parties and random Northerners on the other hand. The "against" vote is slightly stronger in the Frisian regions with less of a socialist tradition, which is also interesting.

I think the areas most supportive of the law correlate quite well with the areas where the combined score of VVD-CDA-D66-CU was strongest while D66 did badly, which makes a lot of sense, but in a weird way. And then there's the Bible Belt, of course.

[DavidB.]

For it just seems a classic right-left map to be honest. Big cities, the north en south east of Limburg voting against which are or used to be left strongholds

I was perhaps thinking too much in terms of class, but yes, come to think about it, you are absolutely right. Spicy take: this is what a Labour vs. Conservative map in the Netherlands could look like. I would not consider high-end suburbs like Haren or Zeist, where "against" won, to be left-wing in any meaningful sense of the word (though Heiloo and Oegstgeest, which are really similar, did vote in favor), though.

[DavidB.]

Haha, yeah, agreed

Leiden:
D66 9 (-3)
GL 8 (+4)
VVD 6 (+1)
PvdA 4 (-1)
CDA 3 (-1)
SP 3 (-2)
Sleutelstad Party 2 (+2)
CU 1 (nc)
Leefbaar 0 (did not run; -2)
PvdD 0 (-1)

58.5%-36.4% against in the referendum.

Leiden had a D66-VVD-SP-CDA government. Painful losses for D66 and the SP. Like in Amsterdam, GL-D66-PvdA is an option here; but because of the fact that D66 are in the driver's seat here, D66-GL-VVD would also be possible. Interesting that the PvdD lost their seat.

Meanwile, Baudet is calling into question the Amsterdam result. Really disappointing behavior.

[DavidB.]

Goodnight!

[DavidB.]

Two random funny things:
- In Amsterdam, Sylvana Simons/BIJ1 seem to have missed out on a seat. LOL!
- In Brunssum, controversial, insane and probably corrupt Jo Palmen won the election again and even gained a seat.

The big patterns of the evening are as follows:
- Again gains for local parties
- More fragmentation on the local councils; more parties necessary for coalitions
- Losses of the traditional left to one-issue parties (elderly parties, Muslim parties, PvdD) and local parties; Christian parties and VVD not really affected by this trend
- Increasing polarization by participation fringe parties DENK, PVV, FvD, and/or small Muslim parties; DENK and PVV also outside Randstad metro

[DavidB.]

Which is the third Muslim party?

Really happy with this result. De Mos and the VVD should now form a government, perhaps with CDA and D66. Absolutely brutal for the PVV. Shows that PVV voters do notice when the party performs well: only a small loss in Almere (from 9 to 7 seats is not great, but respectable), where they are generally doing a good job at representing voters, and huge losses in The Hague, where they are absolutely useless and an embarrassment. Apart from this, 15 parties is really a lot... and 3 Muslim parties with 1 seat each, lol.

NIDA, PvdE and Islam Democrats

[DavidB.]

An exit poll by a municipal institute for statistics in Amsterdam shows that turnout among voters with a Turkish background rose from 37% to 47%, essentially the same as turnout in general. The shocker is that a whopping 74% of this group voted for DENK. In 2014, 48% had voted for the PvdA; this time, only 4% did so.

[DavidB.]

Cracking up that PvdD almost beat SP in Amsterdam.

They did beat the PVV in The Hague (and the SP too). Also funny.

Lol, Muslims are trying to be the new orthodox Calvinists...

What's the difference between the three parties?

PvdE are really full Salafi, "used to be" pro-ISIS etc. NIDA have the most coherent view on society as a whole and are "inspired" by Islam; in Rotterdam they have sought to cooperate with SP, PvdA and GL in a "Left Alliance", but of course the pet issues (covert but clear Erdogan support, anti-Israel) cannot be forgotten either. Not really sure about the Islam Democrats, but they are probably less radical than the PvdE while more explicitly Islamic in voicing their views than NIDA. Though I guess many people simply base their vote on endorsements in the mosque or from neighbors who know candidate 8 on list X is a good guy -- just like a lot of non-Muslim voters do, of course, but I think this phenomenon might be even more relevant within Muslim communities.

Also worth noting that Muslim voters most likely bailed us out in the referendum and made the difference. No data on this yet, but I heard the "against" margins were massive in areas like the Schilderswijk (50%> Muslim) in The Hague, and it's not difficult to understand why that would be the case regarding this law: neighborhoods like these would be target number one for mass surveillance.