Austrian Election Prediction Contest 2017

[DavidB.]

1.) Predict the percentages of all parties, rounded to one decimal point.

ÖVP: 32.0%
FPÖ: 26.5%
SPÖ: 24.0%
GRÜNE: 5.0%
NEOS: 4.5%
PILZ: 4.0%

2.) Guess the name of the 7th-biggest party and its percentage.

KPÖ 1.1%

3.) Predict voter turnout, rounded to one decimal point.

82.0%

4.) Name the leading party in each state.

ÖVP: Upper Austria, Lower Austria, Salzburg, Tyrol, Vorarlberg
FPÖ: Carinthia, Styria
SPÖ: Vienna, Burgenland

5.) Name the best and worst state for each of the six big parties.

ÖVP: Tyrol | Vienna
FPÖ: Carinthia | Tyrol
SPÖ: Burgenland | Vorarlberg
GRÜNE: Vorarlberg | Burgenland
NEOS: Vorarlberg | Burgenland
PILZ: Styria | Vorarlberg

6.) Will the Greens drop below the 4% threshold ?

No.

7.) Will the FPÖ drop below 20% ?

No.

8.) Will PILZ make it into parliament ?

Yes.

9.) Predict the next coalition.

ÖVP-FPÖ.

10.) Predict what Kern/Kurz/Strache will do after the election.

Kurz: Chancellor
Kern: Opposition leader
Strache: Will be a minister in the newly formed government

[DavidB.]

ÖVP: 32.0%
FPÖ: 26.5%
SPÖ: 24.0%
GRÜNE: 5.0%
NEOS: 4.5%
PILZ: 4.0%

I'm usually not good at this, but this was a very accurate prediction. I expected the Green floor, as an established party, to be somewhat higher, and the SPÖ vote to be somewhat lower accordingly.