Predict the Vienna state election

[DavidB.]

SPÖ 36.2% (-8.1%)
FPÖ 31.2% (+5.4%)
Greens 12.2% (-0.4%)
ÖVP 8.8% (-5.2%)
NEOS 6.9% (new)
ANDAS 2.9% (new)
WWW 1.1% (new)
GFW 0.6% (new)

Turnout: 69.2% (+1.6%)

This is a less well-educated guess than in the Upper Austrian election, because I haven't seen many recent polls on this, so I might revise it before the election.

I think that the SPÖ's floor is higher than many people expect, that the FPÖ is being overpolled, that the Greens will slightly be hurt by ANDAS, and that the ÖVP will lose many voters to NEOS.

[DavidB.]

New prediction.

SPÖ 37.9% (-6.4%)
FPÖ 35.1% (+9.3%)
Greens 10.1% (-2.5%)
ÖVP 9.0% (-5.0%)
NEOS 5.6% (new)
ANDAS 1.5% (new)
WWW 0.4% (new)
GFW 0.4% (new)

Turnout: 72.2% (+4.6%)