Israel general discussion

[DavidB.]

Herzog and Margalit have endorsed Peretz.

[DavidB.]

Good riddance.

[DavidB.]

What is YB's position on the Western Wall issue?

[DavidB.]

Yeah, Yisrael Beiteinu. I know their voters don't care but was still interested, because I do care and YB taking a position I really couldn't stomach would be a disappointment to me.

[DavidB.]

Regev is one of those people who managed to rise through the ranks of Likud because she's popular among the base while not actually smart enough to pose a serious threat to Bibi.

[DavidB.]

Yair Netanyahu is based af.

We're witnessing a split in world Jewry right before our eyes. It's been a long time coming but it's finally happening. Current official leftism is completely incompatible with Zionism. Half of the Jewish diaspora (a majority of Jews under 35) are going to become uniformly anti-Zionist and leftist. The older, Zionist Jews are going to be forced to embrace the right, reluctantly or not. This meme is historic.

Nah.

[DavidB.]

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.814579

Elor Azaria's sentence reduced to 14 months by IDF Chief of Staff.

Great news, though it remains a disgrace that he was sentenced for doing his job in the first place.

[DavidB.]

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/1.814579

Elor Azaria's sentence reduced to 14 months by IDF Chief of Staff.

Great news, though it remains a disgrace that he was sentenced for doing his job in the first place.

This is objectively false because it's not only not his job but also against the rules, but we shouldn't get into that.

I do not deny that it was against the rules of engagement, which reflects badly on these rules of engagement rather than on Azaria, but Israeli soldiers are there to neutralize (preferably once and for all) terrorist threats and keep Israel safe, and that's exactly what Azaria did. Gmar hatima tova.

[DavidB.]

^ The biggest cause of the decreased amount of support for Shas, to me, seems Rav Yosef's death, which was always going to affect their numbers and popularity in the long run even if it did not lead to a sudden collapse in the last GE.

[DavidB.]

Hyperbole, because free and fair elections aren't seriously endangered in Israel. The apt comparison is with parties like Croatian HDZ, who appeal to the masses with nationalism but are basically in power to line their pockets and allow the oligarchs to continue to do the same at the expense of the population.

[DavidB.]

There's not much need to rig an election if you can shut down all independent media, take out your political opponents, and prevent real opposition parties from standing in elections, but Putin does it anyway. All these regions in the Northern Caucasus don't really vote for Putin by more than 90% with similar turnout.

I know hyperbole is prevalent in all Israeli media, from left to right, to debilitating levels, but surely you are too smart to believe that what has happened in Russia or even Turkey is possible in Israel. Surely you know even better than I that Israel is a mature democracy in which the population would not accept a crackdown on basic democratic rights and in which the system has enough checks and balances to prevent this from happening. Which does not mean that what Netanyahu is doing now is acceptable, of course, or that citizens should close their eyes for it -- on the contrary.

[DavidB.]

Tomorrow marks 70 years since UN Resolution 181.

Can't wait for the next 70.

[DavidB.]

So these 62 seats you mention would be YA, ZU, Kulanu, UTJ and Meretz? A grand coalition led by Lapid with YA, Likud, Kulanu and Lieberman seems a more logical option based on these numbers, though of course the combination of YA and Likud may be difficult (but perhaps not more difficult than getting both the Haredim and Meretz on board).

Also, how is Kulanu still this popular? I didn't think Kachlon had achieved anything?

[DavidB.]

Not surprised by the Likud numbers at all. Lots of people vote for them because of their nationalism, not because of their economics. Much more surprised by the Jewish Home numbers, but perhaps my view of the JH electorate is colored by thinking of JH voters as rich American olim in Efrat.

Apparently a law by MK Shuli Moalem (JH) was passed that requires a 2/3rd majority in the Knesset to give any parts of Jerusalem to the Palestinians in a 2SS. Which parties voted for this law?

[DavidB.]

YA+ZU+Kulano+Meretz= 57. With YB he's got a coalition

This... doesn't sound bad.

[DavidB.]

And Oren Hazan himself has been removed for six months, much longer than Shaffir, Biran and Raz, whose membership was suspended for only one week (still, this is very bad too). All of this is incredibly ridiculous and will damage trust in politics. Suspending the mandate of democratically elected lawmakers should not be possible. And democratically elected lawmakers should behave themselves.

[DavidB.]

On Wednesday the Haredi party want to pass in first hearing a new Basic Law that says Yeshiva study is a supreme value above equality so the SC will not be able to strike down draft exemption bills.

This is ridiculous.

[DavidB.]

Livni spoke an amazing speech in the knesset against baning breaking the silence in schools bill.

Livni is truly the Israeli equivalent of U.S. liberal politicians who go full idpol while refusing to talk about class and wealth inequality, thereby playing into the hands of the right. "I want them to talk about racism every day. If the left is focused on race and identity, and we go with economic nationalism, we can crush the Democrats", Bannon said. Likud wants the left to talk about Breaking the Silence every day. This ensures the next right-wing victory in Israel.

I don't mind, but I guess you do.

[DavidB.]

Netanyahu getting indicted will in no way cause middle Israel to suddenly turn to the left. The left can't "win"/form a government as long as they don't have a credible argument regarding the peace process and the security situation, with which they can win over middle Israel. Most people want a 2SS (the "Lieberman plan" with landswaps is probably the best and most popular one) but don't trust the Palestinian Authority not to turn the West Bank into a second Gaza and therefore prefer the status-quo, which Likud offers, over (perceived) uncertainty. Just like left-wingers are the best ones to implement budget cuts, right-wingers are the best ones to broker a peace deal. But as one-staters become more dominant on the right, it is doubtful whether a 2SS will ever happen. Only a dramatic change in the status-quo can alter the current trajectory.

What Labour needs to do is to show middle Israel that they are committed to Zionism, which means purging "post-Zionist" (BtS, Peace Now, the whole NGO world) elements from Labour. Let them go to Meretz. Make sure the "on whose side are you?" question is not on people's minds anymore. Meanwhile, credibly advocate for lasting peace and security in a 2SS from a Zionist perspective, provide an unashamedly Social Democratic alternative to Likud's agenda of economic inequality and oligarchy, and be committed to upholding freedom of and from religion. Become a party that credibly aims to unite Jewish Israelis from different backgrounds instead of ignoring all Jews outside the Tel Aviv metro.

[DavidB.]

So what is the Israeli right's plan - if they do end up annexing the West Bank - about the many Arab residents? Give them full citizenship and risk a plurality (majority?) Arab electorate?

Likud don't have a clear plan (except that keeping the status-quo in place is also a choice, though not an explicit one...) and are very much divided. Ideology doesn't matter too much anymore in the Bibi machine: think Forza Italia. BY want Bennett's plan. All parties and individuals to the right of BY don't seem to think too much about this issue ("G-d will make sure everything will be alright"), and many of them probably want to expel the Palestinians, which, needless to say, is not realistic either. Nobody on the right, except for some idealists like Rivlin perhaps, wants to grant Palestinians full citizenship, and yet this is of course the most likely scenario in the event that a 1SS happens.

[DavidB.]

Do any leftists support a one-state plan along Rivlin's ideals?

As the 2SS seems less and less realistic, an increasing number of left-wingers, mostly post/anti-Zionists in the first place, start looking at alternatives like a 1SS; more on the fringe (like the 972mag crowd and, I guess, people like hnv1, though I might be wrong in his case) than on the center-left. Still a very small crowd, but it seems to be growing. Rivlin would still view the details of his 1SS very differently than these people, though.

That sounds sensible on paper, but it simply doesn't seem to work. I mean, Gabbay is trying exactly that, and the polls are making it clear that it's having a negative effect (though, admittedly, his gaffes about religion probably contributed to that). Netanyahu has, for years, effectively branded the left as illegitimate traitors who must be purged. He's a vicious politician, ready to trample over everyone and everything to keep his power, and so far it worked for him, at least politically if not personally. That's why he needs to go- a corrupt despot is definitely not what Israel needs. Without him, I agree that the Israeli population won't suddenly turn left, but who knows what'll happen? A new leader for Likud might not be able to keep the magic going. In my view, Bibi desperately needs to go, even if just to clean up and make our political system healthy again.

I don't think Gabbay's story on the economy is as convincing as it could (and should) be; isn't he more of a Third Wayist?

Other than that, I personally like him, but he just does not seem to be the ideal leader and Labour are so divided that any leader would have a difficult time internally in the first place, which is not good for one's popularity in general: it makes any leader look weak. I just don't see how Gabbay is meaningfully different from Lapid. And Labour carry a lot of negative baggage that Yesh Atid don't. I wonder if there would be any leader (some army guy?) who could at least unite the center-left.

I'd still say the main obstacle to a left-wing victory is the left's lack of a clear security agenda in combination with a lack of "patriotic credibility". But it has to go hand in hand with an economic alternative and with pointing out the injustices of Bibi's economic policy: if it becomes a patriotism contest, the side with "issue ownership" (i.e. the right) will win.

[DavidB.]

So what's the draft law compromise exactly? I haven't followed this (paying almost no attention to IL politics anymore because it's just too depressing), but this is the issue that might make the government collapse, right? Which positions do the parties take here?

[DavidB.]

Your distate from every sephard candidate is racist.

LOL

Some part of me still supports it only because I know that any process leading to a one-state will be burdened with blood. But I also saw almost any possible 2S framework out there, and the only one reasonable enough to be agreed by both sides (Geneva initiative) is untenable in the long run due to two crucial factors: national aspirations of Palestinians living within Israel proper; the fact that Palestinian economy will be in a terrible shape and will be completely reliant (monetary and such) on the Israeli one.

In my Ideal world I would prefer a confederacy, but in reality I am really just worried as I don't see any path for peace now.

I basically agree with this. I have softened on the 2SS recently because while the best-case 1SS scenario is better than any 2SS scenario, most 1SS scenarios are far more disastrous than most 2SS scenarios.

The main problem is that the bloc to the left of Likud (YA and Labour) has around 35 seats strength but its components are far less cohesive than Likud's one. the only connection is the disliking of the Likud but part for that we're talking about a very fragmented bloc of views and people.

I would say that the main problem for the center-left is that they have such a small number of seats in the first place. If you want to form a government without the right, you have to win back voters that vote for these parties now. Kulanu is an obvious one, but you're going to have to win over  Likud/YB voters as well.

I of course do not share your analysis of inner Jewish society social conditions (and I think Likud voters know the truth that their economic standings are not that bad so they don't believe in the Sephardi discrimination narrative). I think the old left (Labour for that matter, as Meretz can always take radical and younger form) is just dying as most centre-left parties in the west do. Socialism is impossible, and social issues of the global age are placing bigger problems for its semi-progressive positions than it does to conservative movements.

My analysis on the discrimination of Mizrahim and their economic position has changed quite a bit over time, and I agree my previous comments on it were at least exaggerated. I personally do not agree with the idea that the increasing salience of the globalization vs. nationalism divide means that the traditional left-right divide has become outdated. I do not believe in socialism, but social democracy is both possible and needed, just not in the same, dogmatic way as in the days of yore. There needs to be a credible, economically left-wing alternative to Likud's policy of oligarchy and inequality. I am not saying most people have it bad, but too many people are struggling too much, more than necessary in a country that is as wealthy as Israel is.

[DavidB.]

Dumb question: how hard is it to tell Ashkenazi and Sephardic people apart? Is it really obvious to the eye, or would you need to listen to their accent or ask them directly to know?

In some cases it's clear, in many (and increasingly many, as intermarriage has become common) it isn't. You can sometimes tell from people's surnames, but even then these people might be mixed nowadays.

From the picture on the right it would be difficult for me to see whether she is Ashkenazi or Mizrahi. On the picture on the left it is clearer.

Most Ashkenazim of course do not look like the blonde model at all.

[DavidB.]

Knesset channel reported that Kachlon going to return to the Likud.

Lmao. His whole party, then, I assume?