Israel general discussion

[warandwar]

I think it's more stigma that atheism is associated with nerds

[sverkol]

Go Buskila!

[Hnv1]

Allegedly Galon quit after she saw internal polling predicting that shwill crush. On one she was fourth with 11% after Zandberg 39% Gilon 16% and Buskila with 13%. On the other Zandberg was first with 33% Gilon second with 16% and Galon third with 11%. I hear a lot of Zehava activists are moving to Buskila, but anyhow Zandberg will walk this.

As to Vosem's analysis, I think there's too much white noise in the data and you're missing some major trends that you need to witness to understand. The first, is the many national-religious youth are becoming less religious, or as they call it "religious light". but on the other hand a lot young Sephardi (especially from the periphery) are becoming more religious despite being label only as Masorti (observants).
It's two major trends that simply cancel each other out in the data

[America Needs R'hllor]

So the Haredi parties "suddenly" woke up and are threatening with an election sometime this year if some outrageous basic law that says, essentially, "studying Torah is a more important value than equality" isn't passed. The target is to prevent the Court from overturning the Haredi anti-conscription laws on the basis of the basic value of equality. But the timing is very, very suspicious. It's very clear that this was triggered by Bibi, the most blatantly corrupt and cynical man to ever set foot in the Knesset, trying to trigger a snap election and get himself a mandate.

[sverkol]

New Walla poll.
Likud-30
YA-24
JH-11
JL-10
JU-10(!)
Meretz-8
UTJ-8
Kulanu-7
YB-7
Shas-4

I'm proud to say that i voted for Amir Peretz for Labour leadership.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Dat Meretz tho. Also, these numbers are of course depressing etc. The only way to get rid of the wannabe despot is throwing him to jail, it seems, because our people are mind-controlled fanatics who don't care about corruption or basic democratic values.

[sverkol]

Dat Meretz tho. Also, these numbers are of course depressing etc. The only way to get rid of the wannabe despot is throwing him to jail, it seems, because our people are mind-controlled fanatics who don't care about corruption or basic democratic values.

Also because that the alternatives are weak,Amir Peretz would done much better in the polls.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Dat Meretz tho. Also, these numbers are of course depressing etc. The only way to get rid of the wannabe despot is throwing him to jail, it seems, because our people are mind-controlled fanatics who don't care about corruption or basic democratic values.

Also because that the alternatives are weak,Amir Peretz would done much better in the polls.

I agree that the alternatives are weak, but I think that Peretz would've just been a stable leader rather than a gaffe-prone mess like Herzog or Gabbay (which, tbh, we already should've anticipated after how Margalit humiliated him), and would've constantly polled in the mid-to-high teens. The fact that Liked is at 30 mandates while the depths and darkness of the Netanyahu corruption are being revealed shows how hopeless our electorate is.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

man that poll reflects poorly on Israel because of what you previously mentioned.

[sverkol]

Dat Meretz tho. Also, these numbers are of course depressing etc. The only way to get rid of the wannabe despot is throwing him to jail, it seems, because our people are mind-controlled fanatics who don't care about corruption or basic democratic values.

Also because that the alternatives are weak,Amir Peretz would done much better in the polls.

I agree that the alternatives are weak, but I think that Peretz would've just been a stable leader rather than a gaffe-prone mess like Herzog or Gabbay (which, tbh, we already should've anticipated after how Margalit humiliated him), and would've constantly polled in the mid-to-high teens. The fact that Liked is at 30 mandates while the depths and darkness of the Netanyahu corruption are being revealed shows how hopeless our electorate is.

You voted fot Gabbay in the second round,no?
I remeber the part of the debate that you talking about,it's probably hurted Margalit more than it hurted Gabbay.
The kibini**t video,his aggressive behavior cost him the leadership.
If he want to return to politicts he should hire other communications consultants.
It is not only Netanyahu's expected victory in the next elections that depresses me,i really don't know if the Labour Party in Israel has a future.
Who will replace Gabbay after the next elections?
Peretz probably won't run again,Bar Lev has Charisma of a fish,Shapir too young.
Gantz? we saw how the last four Chiefs of Staff "succeeded" in politics.
I thought about Svetlova but i don't think that she will leave Livni.
What a depression.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Dat Meretz tho. Also, these numbers are of course depressing etc. The only way to get rid of the wannabe despot is throwing him to jail, it seems, because our people are mind-controlled fanatics who don't care about corruption or basic democratic values.

Also because that the alternatives are weak,Amir Peretz would done much better in the polls.

I agree that the alternatives are weak, but I think that Peretz would've just been a stable leader rather than a gaffe-prone mess like Herzog or Gabbay (which, tbh, we already should've anticipated after how Margalit humiliated him), and would've constantly polled in the mid-to-high teens. The fact that Liked is at 30 mandates while the depths and darkness of the Netanyahu corruption are being revealed shows how hopeless our electorate is.

You voted fot Gabbay in the second round,no?
I remeber the part of the debate that you talking about,it's probably hurted Margalit more than it hurted Gabbay.
The kibini**t video,his aggressive behavior cost him the leadership.
If he want to return to politicts he should hire other communications consultants.
It is not only Netanyahu's expected victory in the next elections that depresses me,i really don't know if the Labour Party in israel has a future.
Who will replace Gabbay after the next elections?
Peretz probably won't run again,Bar Lev has Charisma of a fish,Shapir too young.
Gantz? we saw how the last four Chiefs of Staff "succeeded" in politics.
I thought about Svetlova but i don't think that she will leave Livni.
What a depression.

I voted for Gabbay in the second round, yes, but I regret it. And maybe Margalit's attack against Gabbay did hurt him- it shouldn't have, because it caught Gabbay lying. And yes, I agree that the kibinimat videos were stupid. As for Labour... I agree that the future seems bleak, but they're still the party with the best slate of candidates overall, in my opinion. Maybe Shaffir is an option, I don't know. We'll see.

[sverkol]

Orly Levy establishing a new party.
Yaalon also establishing a new party and announced that 50% of the party list going to be females  (LOL, he acually thinks that he would pass the 3.25 percent block )

[Famous Mortimer]

Dat Meretz tho. Also, these numbers are of course depressing etc. The only way to get rid of the wannabe despot is throwing him to jail, it seems, because our people are mind-controlled fanatics who don't care about corruption or basic democratic values.

Also because that the alternatives are weak,Amir Peretz would done much better in the polls.

I agree that the alternatives are weak, but I think that Peretz would've just been a stable leader rather than a gaffe-prone mess like Herzog or Gabbay (which, tbh, we already should've anticipated after how Margalit humiliated him), and would've constantly polled in the mid-to-high teens. The fact that Liked is at 30 mandates while the depths and darkness of the Netanyahu corruption are being revealed shows how hopeless our electorate is.

You voted fot Gabbay in the second round,no?
I remeber the part of the debate that you talking about,it's probably hurted Margalit more than it hurted Gabbay.
The kibini**t video,his aggressive behavior cost him the leadership.
If he want to return to politicts he should hire other communications consultants.
It is not only Netanyahu's expected victory in the next elections that depresses me,i really don't know if the Labour Party in israel has a future.
Who will replace Gabbay after the next elections?
Peretz probably won't run again,Bar Lev has Charisma of a fish,Shapir too young.
Gantz? we saw how the last four Chiefs of Staff "succeeded" in politics.
I thought about Svetlova but i don't think that she will leave Livni.
What a depression.

I voted for Gabbay in the second round, yes, but I regret it. And maybe Margalit's attack against Gabbay did hurt him- it shouldn't have, because it caught Gabbay lying. And yes, I agree that the kibinimat videos were stupid. As for Labour... I agree that the future seems bleak, but they're still the party with the best slate of candidates overall, in my opinion. Maybe Shaffir is an option, I don't know. We'll see.

Shaffir (like a lot of Labor youth) is a crypto-one stater. I don't think she would help the party in the polls but even if she did though, a Prime Minister Shaffir would be the last Prime Minister of Israel.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Dat Meretz tho. Also, these numbers are of course depressing etc. The only way to get rid of the wannabe despot is throwing him to jail, it seems, because our people are mind-controlled fanatics who don't care about corruption or basic democratic values.

Also because that the alternatives are weak,Amir Peretz would done much better in the polls.

I agree that the alternatives are weak, but I think that Peretz would've just been a stable leader rather than a gaffe-prone mess like Herzog or Gabbay (which, tbh, we already should've anticipated after how Margalit humiliated him), and would've constantly polled in the mid-to-high teens. The fact that Liked is at 30 mandates while the depths and darkness of the Netanyahu corruption are being revealed shows how hopeless our electorate is.

You voted fot Gabbay in the second round,no?
I remeber the part of the debate that you talking about,it's probably hurted Margalit more than it hurted Gabbay.
The kibini**t video,his aggressive behavior cost him the leadership.
If he want to return to politicts he should hire other communications consultants.
It is not only Netanyahu's expected victory in the next elections that depresses me,i really don't know if the Labour Party in israel has a future.
Who will replace Gabbay after the next elections?
Peretz probably won't run again,Bar Lev has Charisma of a fish,Shapir too young.
Gantz? we saw how the last four Chiefs of Staff "succeeded" in politics.
I thought about Svetlova but i don't think that she will leave Livni.
What a depression.

I voted for Gabbay in the second round, yes, but I regret it. And maybe Margalit's attack against Gabbay did hurt him- it shouldn't have, because it caught Gabbay lying. And yes, I agree that the kibinimat videos were stupid. As for Labour... I agree that the future seems bleak, but they're still the party with the best slate of candidates overall, in my opinion. Maybe Shaffir is an option, I don't know. We'll see.

Shaffir (like a lot of Labor youth) is a crypto-one stater. I don't think she would help the party in the polls but even if she did though, a Prime Minister Shaffir would be the last Prime Minister of Israel.

[Famous Mortimer]

This isn't like some conservative in 1984 saying "If Mondale wins, the will be a Red Flag over the White House!" No, that's obviously ridiculous. The United States is a stable country that's existed for 200 years.

Israel, however, has existed for less than a century, its sovereignty is disputed, it has a quasi-indigenous population which wish it did not exist.

If Israel elects anyone to the left of Ariel Sharon, anyone who wants to compromise with global opinion, Israel will cease to exist, because the global opinion is that Israel shouldn't exist.

That's why Israeli votes don't give a damn about Netanyahu being corrupt. They would rather have a corrupt Prime Minister than have their country cease to exist.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If Israel elects anyone to the left of Ariel Sharon, anyone who wants to compromise with global opinion, Israel will cease to exist, because the global opinion is that Israel shouldn't exist.
 cease to exist.

I would assume that the 159 countries that have diplomatic relations with Israel support its right to exist. There are only 32 without diplomatic relations. And while most of those have issues with Israel, Bhutan is kind of random about whom they have diplomatic relations with, so I don't think it means anything in their case.

[Hnv1]

Dat Meretz tho. Also, these numbers are of course depressing etc. The only way to get rid of the wannabe despot is throwing him to jail, it seems, because our people are mind-controlled fanatics who don't care about corruption or basic democratic values.

Also because that the alternatives are weak,Amir Peretz would done much better in the polls.

I agree that the alternatives are weak, but I think that Peretz would've just been a stable leader rather than a gaffe-prone mess like Herzog or Gabbay (which, tbh, we already should've anticipated after how Margalit humiliated him), and would've constantly polled in the mid-to-high teens. The fact that Liked is at 30 mandates while the depths and darkness of the Netanyahu corruption are being revealed shows how hopeless our electorate is.

You voted fot Gabbay in the second round,no?
I remeber the part of the debate that you talking about,it's probably hurted Margalit more than it hurted Gabbay.
The kibini**t video,his aggressive behavior cost him the leadership.
If he want to return to politicts he should hire other communications consultants.
It is not only Netanyahu's expected victory in the next elections that depresses me,i really don't know if the Labour Party in israel has a future.
Who will replace Gabbay after the next elections?
Peretz probably won't run again,Bar Lev has Charisma of a fish,Shapir too young.
Gantz? we saw how the last four Chiefs of Staff "succeeded" in politics.
I thought about Svetlova but i don't think that she will leave Livni.
What a depression.

I voted for Gabbay in the second round, yes, but I regret it. And maybe Margalit's attack against Gabbay did hurt him- it shouldn't have, because it caught Gabbay lying. And yes, I agree that the kibinimat videos were stupid. As for Labour... I agree that the future seems bleak, but they're still the party with the best slate of candidates overall, in my opinion. Maybe Shaffir is an option, I don't know. We'll see.

Shaffir (like a lot of Labor youth) is a crypto-one stater. I don't think she would help the party in the polls but even if she did though, a Prime Minister Shaffir would be the last Prime Minister of Israel.

Very highly doubt anything said here, Shaffir is not a one-stater (as if that's a slur) and the Labour Youth are probably the only ones still believing in the 2 state solution as somehow viable (along with other weird beliefs like socialist economics).

anyhow it will be interesting to see if any of the Labour left will maybe run in the Meretz primaries (we're getting a very SPD-Green situation going on here). Michaeli is close to Gabbay so I doubt it, Yonah might do it, Ba'alol is retiring at the end of the term, and the Reds (Biran, Shelly, Peretz) would not go to be second or without a Gilon leadership.
Shaffir could do it as she's popular with the membership but really hated among her colleagues, but I think in that case Zandberg will put all her weight to push her out. As Aloni once said when Ramon joined in with Sarid and Meretz in the mid 90's to win Workers Federation election, "I already have one who thinks he's god's secondhand (Sarid, now Gilon), I don't need another one who thinks god's his secondhand (Ramon, and now Shaffir)

[America Needs R'hllor]

Just an interesting tidbit that shows why I'm voting based on social issues...
Apparently, our Ministry of Education (headed by leader of the Jewish Home religious party) has allowed schools to take additional money from parents for anything more than the most basic bagrut certificate (our high school graduation exams). That means, advanced math and English and a second choice subject that pretty much every student takes. So basically, discouraging our nation's youth from succeeding, an extremely dumb move
Why did it happen? Is capitalism at fault? Corporations? Why, no, it's once again the religious interest groups. A group of parents discovered that the money charged in some fee or another was being used not just for its purpose, but to fund salaries and other things in the religious education system. The Ministry confirmed it as illegal, the directors of these religious schools that are connected to the Jewish Home demanded the Minister find some way to let them keep charging this money, and viola. Just another way the greed and outrageous superior rights religious interest groups and organizations have over secular ones, forgive me for language, f***ed everyone else.

[Hnv1]

Just an interesting tidbit that shows why I'm voting based on social issues...
Apparently, our Ministry of Education (headed by leader of the Jewish Home religious party) has allowed schools to take additional money from parents for anything more than the most basic bagrut certificate (our high school graduation exams). That means, advanced math and English and a second choice subject that pretty much every student takes. So basically, discouraging our nation's youth from succeeding, an extremely dumb move
Why did it happen? Is capitalism at fault? Corporations? Why, no, it's once again the religious interest groups. A group of parents discovered that the money charged in some fee or another was being used not just for its purpose, but to fund salaries and other things in the religious education system. The Ministry confirmed it as illegal, the directors of these religious schools that are connected to the Jewish Home demanded the Minister find some way to let them keep charging this money, and viola. Just another way the greed and outrageous superior rights religious interest groups and organizations have over secular ones, forgive me for language, f***ed everyone else.

Tbh if my memory serves me right parents used to pay for Bagruit during the Mapai-Labour era due to the law of mandatory education extending until the 9th grade then (it was like that with my old sister). Actually I think it was the Begin government that changed it

[America Needs R'hllor]

Just an interesting tidbit that shows why I'm voting based on social issues...
Apparently, our Ministry of Education (headed by leader of the Jewish Home religious party) has allowed schools to take additional money from parents for anything more than the most basic bagrut certificate (our high school graduation exams). That means, advanced math and English and a second choice subject that pretty much every student takes. So basically, discouraging our nation's youth from succeeding, an extremely dumb move
Why did it happen? Is capitalism at fault? Corporations? Why, no, it's once again the religious interest groups. A group of parents discovered that the money charged in some fee or another was being used not just for its purpose, but to fund salaries and other things in the religious education system. The Ministry confirmed it as illegal, the directors of these religious schools that are connected to the Jewish Home demanded the Minister find some way to let them keep charging this money, and viola. Just another way the greed and outrageous superior rights religious interest groups and organizations have over secular ones, forgive me for language, f***ed everyone else.

Tbh if my memory serves me right parents used to pay for Bagruit during the Mapai-Labour era due to the law of mandatory education extending until the 9th grade then (it was like that with my old sister). Actually I think it was the Begin government that changed it

It's a very welcome change, then. I mostly brought this story to show why I'm voting mostly based on social issues- religious interest and pressure groups, whether they're Haredi or not, are just terrible.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Zehava Galon just dropped out of the Meretz leadership race.
I guess I'm endorsing Zandberg, but the chances I'm voting for Meretz in the election have just grown significantly lower.

@Vosem: This is an interesting post. Indeed, a more religious society doesn't mean one more friendly to the Haredim- we saw, for example, in the last mayoral race in the City of Beit Shemesh, that it was basically a proxy war between the Haredi population that invaded the city and claimed it as its own (represented by the incumbent, Mr. "There Are No Gays In Beit Shemesh") and a kippa-wearing candidate supported by both secular and religious voters who aren't Haredim- aka Datiim). The incumbent won, but in any case, we saw all stripes of Israeli society uniting against the Haredim. On the question of the draft, it makes sense that you'll see more support than, say, for public transportation in Shabbat- after all, the religious group ("religious zionism") are frevently pro-IDF. My points weren't backed by any statistics- I guess I'm just an optimist, but I believe that, with their powerful leaders dying off, the Haredi sect ultimately cannot survive in the modern world, kinda like primitive tribes in Brazil. There's simply no way to keep such a huge population enslaved to strict rules and restrictions on technology, sexuality and, for about a half of this population (women), their very independence as human beings, without that bubble bursting in the end.

EDIT: Looks like Ilan Gilon dropped out too?! All hail Queen Zandberg, I guess, but I have no idea what's happening and what deal they wrought.

EDIT2: Gilon dropped out because of health reasons. His voice seemed a bit slurred in the announcement video, but he didn't say the specific reason. I guess he felt free to drop out after he saw Zehava did.

A really interesting thing I found in the Pew data, which Pew didn't really talk about, was how on pretty much every religious issue the difference between old and young is smaller than the difference between old and young on self-identification. Israelis under 30 are 8% less Hiloni than Israelis over 50, but on no specific public policy issue are they more than 4% more religious (which tracks with Haredi going from 8% to 12% of society), and there are some where there's no difference or younger Israelis even take the less religious position (attitudes towards Haredim are the only ones that show the reverse pattern, but there's basically no generational difference on attitudes towards modern technology and women's rights). So it seems pretty reasonable to conclude that groups like Datiim/Masortim are slowly getting less observant (particularly on things like use of modern technology and women's rights) even as they become a larger part of society at the expense of Hilonim.

Which backs up my basic point that Jewish rituals, or affirmations of Judaism, are becoming more universal (there was something in there about younger self-identified Hilonim being more likely to light Shabbat candles than older Hilonim, for instance) without society's values really changing, which suggests that the non-Haredi parts of Israeli society are all slowly converging with each other.

Similar trends in the US where American youth are less likely to identify as atheist but more atheistic than any generation in the past. This is mostly due to a stigma that atheism is associated with anti-Muslim bigotry.

I'm sorry, I don't want to derail the thread, but I highly doubt this.

[DavidB.]

Netanyahu getting indicted will in no way cause middle Israel to suddenly turn to the left. The left can't "win"/form a government as long as they don't have a credible argument regarding the peace process and the security situation, with which they can win over middle Israel. Most people want a 2SS (the "Lieberman plan" with landswaps is probably the best and most popular one) but don't trust the Palestinian Authority not to turn the West Bank into a second Gaza and therefore prefer the status-quo, which Likud offers, over (perceived) uncertainty. Just like left-wingers are the best ones to implement budget cuts, right-wingers are the best ones to broker a peace deal. But as one-staters become more dominant on the right, it is doubtful whether a 2SS will ever happen. Only a dramatic change in the status-quo can alter the current trajectory.

What Labour needs to do is to show middle Israel that they are committed to Zionism, which means purging "post-Zionist" (BtS, Peace Now, the whole NGO world) elements from Labour. Let them go to Meretz. Make sure the "on whose side are you?" question is not on people's minds anymore. Meanwhile, credibly advocate for lasting peace and security in a 2SS from a Zionist perspective, provide an unashamedly Social Democratic alternative to Likud's agenda of economic inequality and oligarchy, and be committed to upholding freedom of and from religion. Become a party that credibly aims to unite Jewish Israelis from different backgrounds instead of ignoring all Jews outside the Tel Aviv metro.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

So what is the Israeli right's plan - if they do end up annexing the West Bank - about the many Arab residents? Give them full citizenship and risk a plurality (majority?) Arab electorate?

[DavidB.]

So what is the Israeli right's plan - if they do end up annexing the West Bank - about the many Arab residents? Give them full citizenship and risk a plurality (majority?) Arab electorate?

Likud don't have a clear plan (except that keeping the status-quo in place is also a choice, though not an explicit one...) and are very much divided. Ideology doesn't matter too much anymore in the Bibi machine: think Forza Italia. BY want Bennett's plan. All parties and individuals to the right of BY don't seem to think too much about this issue ("G-d will make sure everything will be alright"), and many of them probably want to expel the Palestinians, which, needless to say, is not realistic either. Nobody on the right, except for some idealists like Rivlin perhaps, wants to grant Palestinians full citizenship, and yet this is of course the most likely scenario in the event that a 1SS happens.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Netanyahu getting indicted will in no way cause middle Israel to suddenly turn to the left. The left can't "win"/form a government as long as they don't have a credible argument regarding the peace process and the security situation, with which they can win over middle Israel. Most people want a 2SS (the "Lieberman plan" with landswaps is probably the best and most popular one) but don't trust the Palestinian Authority not to turn the West Bank into a second Gaza and therefore prefer the status-quo, which Likud offers, over (perceived) uncertainty. Just like left-wingers are the best ones to implement budget cuts, right-wingers are the best ones to broker a peace deal. But as one-staters become more dominant on the right, it is doubtful whether a 2SS will ever happen. Only a dramatic change in the status-quo can alter the current trajectory.

What Labour needs to do is to show middle Israel that they are committed to Zionism, which means purging "post-Zionist" (BtS, Peace Now, the whole NGO world) elements from Labour. Let them go to Meretz. Make sure the "on whose side are you?" question is not on people's minds anymore. Meanwhile, credibly advocate for lasting peace and security in a 2SS from a Zionist perspective, provide an unashamedly Social Democratic alternative to Likud's agenda of economic inequality and oligarchy, and be committed to upholding freedom of and from religion. Become a party that credibly aims to unite Jewish Israelis from different backgrounds instead of ignoring all Jews outside the Tel Aviv metro.

That sounds sensible on paper, but it simply doesn't seem to work. I mean, Gabbay is trying exactly that, and the polls are making it clear that it's having a negative effect (though, admittedly, his gaffes about religion probably contributed to that). Netanyahu has, for years, effectively branded the left as illegitimate traitors who must be purged. He's a vicious politician, ready to trample over everyone and everything to keep his power, and so far it worked for him, at least politically if not personally. That's why he needs to go- a corrupt despot is definitely not what Israel needs. Without him, I agree that the Israeli population won't suddenly turn left, but who knows what'll happen? A new leader for Likud might not be able to keep the magic going. In my view, Bibi desperately needs to go, even if just to clean up and make our political system healthy again.