Abbott. NY GOP had everything going for them in '22, and still came up short. I don't think the GOP can win a statewide race in NY at the current time.
This.
With that being said, I don't see either losing regardless of who is president, though Abbott may hold on be a slim margin if Democrats have a good night. I could see Hochul winning by more than in 2022 the next time. Or maybe she retires, even though I expect her to run for one more term.
Part the reason Hochul did so badly was she ran a terrible campaign and hardly campaigned.