MD-SEN(NRSC) Hogan+16/22

[Duke of York]

Might be just name recognition at this point. I don't think hes going to win the general election.

[Duke of York]

How stupid are the people of Maryland?

Fixed that for you.

But yeah, Hogan will win. This is a bigger lead than Bredesen or Bullock ever had.

Do ever not doom? Maryland is also a much bluer state than Tennessee or Montana. It's very hard for a Republican to win. If other polls show a similar lead then i'll be concerned.

[Duke of York]

How stupid are the people of Maryland?

Fixed that for you.

But yeah, Hogan will win. This is a bigger lead than Bredesen or Bullock ever had.

Do ever not doom? Maryland is also a much bluer state than Tennessee or Montana. It's very hard for a Republican to win. If other polls show a similar lead then i'll be concerned.

Hogan didn't repeatedly deny that he'd run for Senate (unlike Bullock), and his last election wasn't over a decade ago (unlike Bredesen.) Things can change, but right now he's in a much stronger position than either of those two examples.

The two main candidates on the Democratic side are not super well known statewide. That will change once the nomination is decided. Maryland has not elected a Republican to the Senate since 1980.

[Duke of York]

To get a Democrat below 30% or even below 40% in Maryland takes some pretty creative math.

Even Ben Jealous got 43 percent in 2022.