United Kingdom General Election: July 4, 2024

[Duke of York]

These are the kinds of poll numbers which led to Truss's removal. If this is indeed the direction the polls are headed towards, would MPs revolt against Rishi that close before the election? Is there even a plan B C D?

who could they go with that would reverse the tide? Starmer isn't the best leader either but if numbers like this held even Sunak could lose his seat.

[Duke of York]

I think it's pretty safe to say Labour will wind up with a possibly historic majority unless polls tighten significantly once the writ is dropped.

[Duke of York]

Mirror out with peice on a potential May election.  Seemingly the biggest point here is Sunaks colleagues want to prevent a rebellion once the budget is through,  something that only becomes more likely with every cut delivered electorally by Labour.

what are the odds we get a May election?

[Duke of York]

Latest MeGov Westminster voting intention (21-22 Feb)

Con: 18% (-2 from 20-21 Feb)
Lab: 35% (-11)
Lib Dem: 4% (-5)
Reform UK: 9% (-4)
Green: 4% (-3)
SNP: 4% (=)
Speaker: 25% (+25)

It's a revolution! Political earthquake! Tsunami democràtic!

Why is Speaker included in the poll?

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/Samfr/status/1764585117249327228

Sunak would lost his seat in a result like this. No PM has ever lost their own seat in a general election.

[Duke of York]

Sunak has just said that there will not be a General Election on 2 May.

well then the local elections in May are going to be even more brutal than last years.

[Duke of York]

I doubt Tory MPs are dumb enough to actually unseat Sunak without a replacement, but I could see enough panic that he ends up getting subjected to a confidence vote. That would be another setback going into an election campaign.

having a confidence election and perhaps a new leader is unlikely to reverse their brutal poll numbers.

[Duke of York]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

Sky news is going to be incredibly fun to watch when the election happens.

[Duke of York]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

With these number Liberals Democrats would be the official opposition. I have to wonder if Sunak would keep his own seat.

[Duke of York]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

With these number Liberals Democrats would be the official opposition. I have to wonder if Sunak would keep his own seat.

For all one knows, we might have a *real* 1993 Canadian situation where *SNP* is the official opposition.  (That is, if they were operating on 2015 near-clean-sweep fumes.  Which they aren't.)

I can’t see the SNP becoming official opposition.

[Duke of York]

A few more letters being sent after this one?
https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1770685592264700387

Worth nothing, now we have the crosstabs, just how grim it looks under the hood too:

• Tories on 10% among under 50s, only 2% ahead of the Greens.
• Reform lead the Conservatives in the North of England.
• Reform have a larger share of the male vote than the Tories.
• The Tories only lead Reform by 6% among those over 65.

With these number Liberals Democrats would be the official opposition. I have to wonder if Sunak would keep his own seat.

For all one knows, we might have a *real* 1993 Canadian situation where *SNP* is the official opposition.  (That is, if they were operating on 2015 near-clean-sweep fumes.  Which they aren't.)

I can’t see the SNP becoming official opposition.

Yeah, if anything, I think the MRP has them with too many seats. Just off the cuff, I’m thinking they’ll get more like 30 than 40. I also think that the Lib Dems have a good shot at getting more seats than the SNP.

The over/under on the Tories and 100 seats is a good question though. I don’t doubt that they’ll still be the official opposition at this rate. I suppose there’s a chance of Canada 1993 happening in regards to the number of Tory seats, but I wouldn’t bank on it right now.

i don't see Canada 1993 at this juncture. Liberal Democrats being official opposition is definitely in the realm of possibility.

[Duke of York]

why call a general election with local elections days away?

[Duke of York]

why call a general election with local elections days away?

As explained by me and others above, if the call were to come before the locals, it would preempt and prevent action in response to the disastrous Tory result. The most serious of these potential actions is the toppling of Sunak, but there's plenty more possibilities. That would be a justification if the call actually happens of course.

could it help them in the locals?

[Duke of York]

Elphicke's defection means the Tory majority is now officially under half what they got in the last GE.

Do we know if she plans to contest Dover as a Labour candidate in the next election? It was already looking to be an easy pickup for Labour and they may even already have a candidate nominated.

she already said she's standing down at the next election.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1788462769970233813

good gosh. If this came to pass Sky News will be beyond entertaining to watch election night.

[Duke of York]

What made Sunak decide to have a July election?

He's bad at politics and incredibly arrogant

More specifically - he apparently saw the rate of inflation has slightly slowed, and in his mind he thought "we're turning it around! Let's seize the momentum!"

Very dumb decision

He should have waited to the fall to call the election. By doing it now it guarantees a Labour win.

[Duke of York]

https://Twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793336678096019874?t=QU1_O62L4ZAVCm0P6r...

Selections are going to come fast now. Here's the Lib-Dems choosing someone asap for a target seat. And Corbyns former seat becomes even more of a stitch-up:

https://twitter.com/tomorrowsmps/status/1793378252154913030?t=l8uSukHrwSpAga0xdI...

How many seats has Paul Mason failed to be selected in at this point?

How are candidates chosen?

[Duke of York]

One matter that might complicate Starmer's government is he will have around 500 MP's, but he's personally quite unpopular for an incoming PM:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunaks-satisfaction-falls-equal-worst-ever-ipsos-rating-conservative-or-labour-leader

"Keir Starmer’s ratings have also fallen since February. 25% are satisfied with his performance as Labour leader (-4) and 56% are dissatisfied (+1). His net score of -31 is his worst as Labour leader since he recorded a -29 in May 2021.  Among Labour supporters, satisfaction with his performance has also dropped from 58% to 51%."

It's a recipe for massive party rebellions and splits, in extreme theory 180 MP's could leave Labour and form a new official opposition without even toppling Starmer.

Couldn’t there simply be a vote of no confidence and a new leader chosen?

[Duke of York]

One matter that might complicate Starmer's government is he will have around 500 MP's, but he's personally quite unpopular for an incoming PM:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunaks-satisfaction-falls-equal-worst-ever-ipsos-rating-conservative-or-labour-leader

"Keir Starmer’s ratings have also fallen since February. 25% are satisfied with his performance as Labour leader (-4) and 56% are dissatisfied (+1). His net score of -31 is his worst as Labour leader since he recorded a -29 in May 2021.  Among Labour supporters, satisfaction with his performance has also dropped from 58% to 51%."

It's a recipe for massive party rebellions and splits, in extreme theory 180 MP's could leave Labour and form a new official opposition without even toppling Starmer.

Couldn’t there simply be a vote of no confidence and a new leader chosen?

Different rules than the Conservatives.

That’s ridiculous to not have a way to oust the leader.

[Duke of York]

One matter that might complicate Starmer's government is he will have around 500 MP's, but he's personally quite unpopular for an incoming PM:

https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunaks-satisfaction-falls-equal-worst-ever-ipsos-rating-conservative-or-labour-leader

"Keir Starmer’s ratings have also fallen since February. 25% are satisfied with his performance as Labour leader (-4) and 56% are dissatisfied (+1). His net score of -31 is his worst as Labour leader since he recorded a -29 in May 2021.  Among Labour supporters, satisfaction with his performance has also dropped from 58% to 51%."

It's a recipe for massive party rebellions and splits, in extreme theory 180 MP's could leave Labour and form a new official opposition without even toppling Starmer.

Couldn’t there simply be a vote of no confidence and a new leader chosen?

Different rules than the Conservatives.

That’s ridiculous to not have a way to oust the leader.

In practice (as found from all the leadership challenges and elections) it's all about control of the NEC, just like the Conservatives is all about the 1922.

What's the NEC?

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1797629308988768343

if this result came to pass Liberal Democrats would be the official opposition and Sunak would become the first British Prime Minister to lose their own seat at a general election.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/1798397650573676618

it would be amazing to see this result come to pass. Not sure it will though. How many candidates does Reform have at this point?

[Duke of York]

so such a result is unlikely given they don't have many candidates.