Manitoba Election 2023 - October 3rd

[Duke of York]

Manitoba provincial voting intentions from Research Co.:
    
🟠NDP 41%
🔵PCPM 39%
🔴MLP 14%
🟢GPM 3%

→ https://338canada.com/manitoba/polls.htm

[Research Co., September 15-17, 2023, n=600]

Note that the Greens are only running 7 candidates and the Liberals also have less than a full slate - so the NDP margin will likely be larger

I assume this would be enough for the NDP to get a majority?

[Duke of York]

NDP with 11 point lead in Probe Research poll.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1704627649807515664?s=20

this would be landslide territory. really hope CBC Manitoba has a livestream of the election coverage

[Duke of York]

NDP with 11 point lead in Probe Research poll.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1704627649807515664?s=20

this would be landslide territory. really hope CBC Manitoba has a livestream of the election coverage

They should, it would be live broadcast as well across the country (Most provincial elections can be watched on CBC newsnetwork from other provinces)

If this poll turned out to be true on election day, it would mirror 2003 results: NDP 49% (35 seats), PCs 38% (20) LIB 13% (2)

Do they allow viewers from other countries? If it’s on YouTube it’s not restricted.

[Duke of York]

NDP with 11 point lead in Probe Research poll.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1704627649807515664?s=20

this would be landslide territory. really hope CBC Manitoba has a livestream of the election coverage

They should, it would be live broadcast as well across the country (Most provincial elections can be watched on CBC newsnetwork from other provinces)

If this poll turned out to be true on election day, it would mirror 2003 results: NDP 49% (35 seats), PCs 38% (20) LIB 13% (2)

Do they allow viewers from other countries? If it’s on YouTube it’s not restricted.

Pretty much every single provincial election I've watched has been livestreamed on Youtube through CBC and accessible in the US.

Hell, I was able to watch the results for the Yukon at their last election.

I assume the live stream will be through CBC Manitoba?

[Duke of York]

Elections Manitoba reports roughly 60000 electors voted between 8AM and noon.

That doesn't seem like a whole lot of people voted.

[Duke of York]

Elections Manitoba reports roughly 60000 electors voted between 8AM and noon.

That doesn't seem like a whole lot of people voted.

Well, 200790 electors voted early already.

still not a big number in a province of 1.4 million.

[Duke of York]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

[Duke of York]

Urban/rural sorting happening in Manitoba, as we've seen all over the place lately.

Outside of the north, the NDP may win just one rural seat (Dauphin), but have nearly swept Winnipeg, including almost winning Tuxedo.

One poll is still out. Is there a chance she could lose?

I sincerely doubt it. We're only waiting on advance votes from outside the riding. Last election there were 687 of these in Tuxedo, and they didn't vote that much differently from the rest of the riding.

And 39 of the 56 other ridings have already submitted their advance results.
The only non-called seat waiting on something else than 17/18 outside advance polls is Selkirk, which still has an election day poll out (I would assume it's the downtown Selkirk one which had power issues for a large part of the day).

By the way, the official platform is down again.

What is causing such major problems?

[Duke of York]

Dauphin: missing ... the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
McPhillips: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Waverley: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Lagimodière: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Selkirk: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Brandon West: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings
Tuxedo: missing the out of riding advance polls of 5 other ridings

It just now hit me those are almost definitely the same five ridings for every location, and they can be identified because they're the only five ridings where "Outside ED Advance" is listed as 52/56 rather than 51/56

it's the five northernmost ridings. Swan River and the four NDP seats up there. It's probably not a coincidence that those five are all still waiting on some election day precincts to report


I can't imagine many out-of-district voters are up there?

why is it taking so long to count them?