UK local by-elections, 2023

[Duke of York]

Thursday 19 January

Andrew Teale's previews

Staffordshire County Council, Biddulph North

Lab 931 (49.5%, +13.8 )
Ind Hart 493 (26.2%, new)
Con 458 (24.3%, -33.3)
(changes from 2021)

Lab gain from Con

Staffordshire Moorlands, Biddulph West (double vacancy)

Lab 364 (36.8%, +11.5)
Lab 288
Ind Eardley 226 (22.8%, new)
Con 185 (18.7%, -3.7)
Ind McLaughlin 154 (15.6%, new)
Green 61 (6.2%, new)
(changes from 2019 using "top vote" for both; NB there are various ways of calculating percentages here and none are wholly satisfactory)

1 Lab gain fron Ind, 1 Lab gain from Con

Stevenage, Bedwell

Lab 907 (69.8%; +13.0 on 2022, +15.6 on 2021, +15.6 on 2019)
Con 263 (20.2%; -7.1 on 2022, -12.8 on 2021, -3.5 on 2019)
Lib Dem 129 (9.9%; -1.6 on 2022, +0.2 on 2021, +2.0 on 2019)

Lab hold

are these results or predictions?

[Duke of York]

wow if these results are any indiction of the current mood this May's elections are going to be beyond brutal for the Conservatives.

[Duke of York]

Yay let's overanalyze local council by elections round 3823.

Labour had no business losing a seat in Cambridge especially to the Conservatives.

[Duke of York]

why does city of London always have mostly independents running?

[Duke of York]

A bit of a sideshow from the main event...

Thursday 20 July

Andrew Teale's preview (includes the Parliamentary by-elections)

Ceredigion; Llanfarian

Lib Dem 298 (48.2%, -19.9)
Plaid Cymru 290 (46.9%, +15.0)
Con 30 (4.9%, new)
(changes from 2022)

Lib Dem hold

Swindon; St Margaret & South Marston

Con 1143 (50.6%, +11.6 on 2023, +2.2 on 2022, -5.9 on 2021)
Lab 1118 (49.4%, -0.4 on 2023, -2.2 on 2022, +15.0 on 2021)

Con gain from Lab

Worcester; Nunnery

Lab hold; figures awaited

I wonder why Conservatives gained a seat in Swindon.

[Duke of York]

why do elections in the City of London almost always feature solely independents?

[Duke of York]

Another sideshow today.

Thursday 19 October

Andrew Teale's preview (after the Parliamentary Specials)

Shropshire, Alveley & Claverley

Lib Dem 662 (58.8%, +36.6)
Con 408 (36.3%, -33.0)
Lab 55 (4.9%, new)
(changes from 2021)

Lib Dem gain from Con

Surrey County Council; Horsleys

counts Friday

Worcestershire County Council; Warndon Parish

Green 1139 (44.2%, +28.7)
Con 623 (24.2%, -36.9)
Lib Dem 579 (22.5%, +16.3)
Lab 237 (9.2%, -7.5)
(changes from 2021)

Green gain from Con

Worcester; Warndon Parish South

Green 733 (53.7%, -11.6 on 2023, +36.2 on 2022)
Con 340 (24.9%, +2.5 on 2023, -28.4 on 2022)
Lab 171 (12.5%, +2.6 on 2023, -11.1 on 2022)
Lib Dem 92 (6.2%, +3.9 on 2023, +0.6 on 2022)
Reform UK 29 (2.1%, new)
(Worcester elects by thirds, but this is a two member ward and had no election in 2021)

Green gain from Con

wow. Conservatives continue their fall. Things keep up the way they are the local elections in May will be a disaster as well and the general election a Labour mega tsunami.

[Duke of York]

An unusual example of Labour winning a seat "from nowhere", though they had won in the area in the past.  And a rather less unusual example of the Lib Dems surging to win a seat in a historically strongly Tory area.

which seat are you referring too?