NY SLINGSHOT STRATEGY GOV HOCHUL +6

[Duke of York]

And what do we know about this pollster?

Fairly new, upstart Democratic firm that aligns with the progressive left.

Looks like this sample is 33% conservative, 27% liberal, which kind of seems to point to more nonresponse bias, no?

It really feels like all of these samples are kind of whack, or Democrats suddenly don't want to vote this year in New York lol.

(2018 and 2020 were both Liberal+10 on conservative, per exit polls)

which is why its suspect to me. Its as if somehow Democrats are going to show up everywhere in New England and the mid Atlantic but New York. Doesn't add up.

[Duke of York]

And what do we know about this pollster?

I'm very interested to see what the individual county results look like if Hochul somehow performs this poorly.

She would probably only win Brooklyn, the Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Albany and Tompkins.

I can't see her losing Erie, Monroe or Onondaga.

[Duke of York]

And what do we know about this pollster?

I'm very interested to see what the individual county results look like if Hochul somehow performs this poorly.

She would probably only win Brooklyn, the Bronx, Manhattan, Queens, Westchester, Albany and Tompkins.

I can't see her losing Erie, Monroe or Onondaga.

Why not? Paladino carried Erie County in 2010, despite losing in a landslide, and Cuomo lost Monroe County in 2014, despite beating Astorino by almost 14% that year. Onondaga County has gone Republican in congressional races and went Republican in the Comptroller's race back in 2010. I can easily see Hochul losing those counties if she wins by only single digits, especially since they are all to the right of the state.

Hochul is from Erie County just like Paladino.

[Duke of York]

If this poll is right, Zeldin will win, because undecideds at this point break for the challenger heavily.

I’m inclined to agree. I think Zeldin has a decent shot of winning.

[Duke of York]

If this poll is right, Zeldin will win, because undecideds at this point break for the challenger heavily.

Except in highly partisan states/districts, where they tend to break toward the majority party. 

If they break heavily to the challenger, do you also think Hofmeister will win in Oklahoma?

Who are the undecideds in New York?
Probably Democrats (Democratic Independents).
If they are undecided now, they are not voting for Hochul.
Something turned them off.
Most likely crime, draconian covid restrictions, and incompetence of Hochul.


In Oklahoma, there is a decent chance of Dem winning because of Stitt's unreasonable and radical stance on abortion.

So if an incumbent is below 50 percent you think it’s a guarantee they lose?

[Duke of York]

HOCHUL isn't losing

What makes you be so sure?

[Duke of York]

HOCHUL is gonna win by 10 pts or more National surveys have Ds outvoting Rs in Early voting 47(35, Ds are blowing away Rs in NY, CA and IL

I hope you’re right. It would be nice to see her have a win on par with 2018.

[Duke of York]

HOCHUL is gonna win by 10 pts or more National surveys have Ds outvoting Rs in Early voting 47(35, Ds are blowing away Rs in NY, CA and IL

I hope you’re right. It would be nice to see her have a win on par with 2018.

What about her do you like, or is it that she's got a "D" next to her name like I alluded to before?

Every time I see or hear her speak, she has a deer in the headlights look and sounds lost. "Today, I support this...tomorrow...yes, we'll fight crime". 

She and Adams sound exactly alike and that's not a compliment

She doesn’t come off as an out of touch elitist like Cuomo did.

[Duke of York]

Yeah, she's pretty awful. I hope she doesn't run for another term after this.

I don't think she's been a bad leader.

[Duke of York]

If Hochul wins this year, and we assume that her term goes badly, is it possible that Republicans finally manage to win in 2026? Or will she merely be ousted in a primary and succeeded by a more likeable Democrat?

I don't think it will but the most likely person I could see ousting her in a primary is Tish  James.

[Duke of York]

If Hochul wins this year, and we assume that her term goes badly, is it possible that Republicans finally manage to win in 2026? Or will she merely be ousted in a primary and succeeded by a more likeable Democrat?

I don't think it will but the most likely person I could see ousting her in a primary is Tish  James.

But James isn't that popular herself, if I'm correct.

Oh yes she is. If she was the nominee shed win easily.