NY GOV (Insider Advantage/Trafalgar): Hochul 48 - Zeldon 43

[Duke of York]

This a laughable poll. Can they simply admit they are making up numbers to suit a narrative?

[Duke of York]

LMAO, someone please do this math. This is the party breakdown of the poll:

D 53.6
R 27.5
No Party/Other 18.9

So somehow Hochulis only leading by 5 in a sample that is D+26. Sounds about right.

Yet another example of how Trafalgar makes up numbers. They just happened to get it right in the last presidential.

[Duke of York]

I wouldn't be surprised if Zeldin cleared the 40% mark. Astorino managed to get over that mark against Cuomo in 2014. But I doubt the final margin will be this close. As of now, I'm assuming Hochul will win by ~15-20%, only slightly worse than Cuomo's winning margin in 2018. A result of ~59-41% or 58-42%, or something like that, wouldn't surprise me.

With most third parties taken off the ballot, a result like 58-41% is actually what I expect. Worst case for Hochul would be something like 56-43% and best case around 62-37%.

I think this is reasonable. I don't see Zeldin getting any higher than 43 percent. I expect Hochul to get close to 60. Going over that will depend on how well she does upstate.