Louisiana 2023 gubernatorial election megathread

[Duke of York]

Has anyone brought up the possibility of two Democrats sneaking into the top 2 with all these Republicans running?

Yes Shawn Wilson

I doubt that happens but it would be amazing if it did.

[Duke of York]

https://www.wdsu.com/article/louisiana-governor-sharon-hewitt-campaign/42484060

Senate Majority leader Sharon Hewitt announces campaign for governor

What are her chances?

[Duke of York]

What are her chances?

Unsure, but my guess is she splits the anti-Landry GOP vote with Schroder.

so you think she won't make it to the runoff? I doubt anyone wins outright.

[Duke of York]

Lean D if she runs

Who are you referring to?

[Duke of York]

Why would it be lean D if she runs?

[Duke of York]

Why would it be lean D if she runs?

It's Olawakandi.

who?

[Duke of York]

Shawn Wilson and Chris Jones (AR) are the perfect type of Democratic candidates, but sadly they can't win because of racial and political polarization...

Safe R......

what makes you think Wilson can't win?

[Duke of York]

It's a tossup now I don't care what ratings have it , I always had LA Gov Lean D

Why do you rank it lean D?

[Duke of York]

Im still calling this for Landry despite a runoff being certain.

[Duke of York]

Potential areas of concern for Dems based on this:

1. Southern black belt counties in competitive states (GA south of Atlanta, eastern NC, VA south of Richmond)

2. South Texas if this is about ancestral Catholic Dems switching parties over Dobbs.  In theory, this could also apply to RI and parts of MA, but we saw little sign of it in 2022 so IDK.

This election lines up with my priors well, that Dobbs has caused some realignment across the nation, and Republicans are the beneficiaries of it in the Deep South.

I don't think Georgia (and North Carolina for that matter) will be competitive at all in 2024 - there's a good chance that both actually vote to the right of Florida. Right now, I have Trump outperforming Kemp in the rural black belt, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him gaining 20 points from 2020 in rural, majority black counties there (midterm trends are often very muted - for example, Starr went from D +60 in 2016 to D +54 in 2018 to D +5 in 2020). Virginia will also shift significantly right, but not enough to flip.

This is not happening.

[Duke of York]

Didn't even come to a runoff in the end. Always expected Landry to win but not quite so suddenly.

Beshear had better not be resting on his laurels already then.

Kentucky isn’t really reliant on black voters the way Louisiana and Mississippi are. This result really just reaffirms that Mississippi is Likely or even Safe R, but doesn’t tell us much about KY.

It's hardly the best barometer of overall opinion I know but I checked Louisiana Reddit a few times lately and saw absolutely no excitement/enthusiasm about Wilson on there; saw quite a lot about Nan Whaley in Ohio last year who went on to suffer a similarly crushing loss. That's how I knew this race was lost for Dems from the start. Still, the fact it didn't even go to a runoff is a very worrying sign for Dems and indicates polling way underestimated R's again. Definitely now expecting a double-digit Reeves margin in MS next month.

Reddit is not a good indicator of anything.