Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Duke of York]

What do you think are the ceilings and floors for McAuliffe and Youngkin?

Here's mine:

McAuliffe floor: 48%
McAuliffe ceiling: 55%

Youngkin floor: 43%
Youngin ceiling: 50%

Basically I could see anywhere from a sizable 12 point margin for McAuliffe to a narrow 2 point win for Youngkin. My prediction has McAuliffe up by 5 at the moment.

I'd more say:

McAuliffe floor: 49.5%
McAuliffe ceiling: 56%

Youngkin floor: 41%
Youngkin ceiling: 48%


My prediction remains 53-45% for T-Mac.

your prediction is about the same margin as 2017.

[Duke of York]

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7001/Which-party-will-win-the-2021-Virginia-gubernatorial-election

look at the comment section. They are debating whether or not Youngkin can outright win nova or not. While the market favors Democrats, the comment section is mostly people saying Youngkin will win Loudoun outright and has a good chance in Fairfax.

its like... lmao..

If online comments meant anything Nixon would have defeated Cuomo in 2018.

[Duke of York]

Could the afganistan fiasco hurt mcaulife in NOVA?

NOVA is AN EXTREMELY pro-interventionist area of the country.

I don't see why it would. The governor has zero control over foreign policy.

[Duke of York]

https://virginia.gop/virginia-gop-files-lawsuit-seeking-mcauliffe-disqualification/

Virginia GOP is suing to exclude Terry McAuliffe from the ballot for governor because he allegedly didn't sign his statement of candidacy.

This is almost certainly going to be dismissed.

[Duke of York]

excerpt from Sarah Rankin's article in the AP yesterday:

Democrat Terry McAuliffe asked a court to dismiss a lawsuit filed by Virginia Republicans that seeks to remove him from the ballot in this year’s closely watched race for governor over an alleged paperwork error.

In a filing Friday evening, attorneys for the former governor now running for a second term against GOP nominee Glenn Youngkin said the suit was based on a “legal lie” and would effectively invalidate hundreds of thousands of votes cast in the Democratic primary.

McAuliffe argued in his filing that nothing in Virginia code requires a candidate to sign the declaration of candidacy.

Further, the filing said: “Even if there were a technical defect with the declaration of candidacy — and there is not — it would provide no basis for removing McAuliffe’s name from the general election ballot and preventing Virginia’s voters from choosing him as their next Governor. The declaration of candidacy is a prerequisite for placement on the ballot in the primary election, not the general election, and the primary election has already concluded.”

“There is no basis for the Republican Party to now — almost three months later — contest the results of another party’s primary,” his filing said.

Several state election law experts told the AP on Thursday, when the suit was filed in Richmond Circuit Court, that they would be surprised if it succeeds. Online court records do not show that a hearing has been set.

I seriously doubt any judge would throw the election into chaos by removing McAuliffe from the ballot especially with ballots beginning to be printed.

[Duke of York]

Yard signs as a campaign tactic are intended to increase the perception of social acceptability for supporting the candidate - the idea is that they reinforce the idea that "you are not alone."

The data do show that this does tend to have non-negligible effects on independent/non-ideological voters who live in highly partisan areas, which is why you will often see R signs in D areas, and vice versa. There is some great writing about how Doug Jones' 2017 campaign made great use of this tactic in the Birmingham suburbs and Mobile area.

Data also show that they are far more effective in local races and ballot measure campaigns.

yard signs don't vote.

[Duke of York]

https://www.13newsnow.com/article/news/politics/virginia-house-candidate-blasted-tweet/291-023fb29d-8830-4866-8baf-1ca1d3ab6090

Virginia House candidate blasted for insulting tweet about House Speaker

[Duke of York]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DavidMDrucker/status/1447677488159731720

Polling and early numbers aren't showing that at all.

[Duke of York]

Fairfax will report very late as will the rest of Nova.

But look to Hampton Roads.. if Youngkin is dominating there hard I may be able to call it for him early.

It wasn’t late in 2017 or 2020.

Young king winning Hampton Roads? You can’t be serious.

[Duke of York]

Fairfax will report very late as will the rest of Nova.

But look to Hampton Roads.. if Youngkin is dominating there hard I may be able to call it for him early.

It wasn’t late in 2017 or 2020.

Young king winning Hampton Roads? You can’t be serious.

He's probably talking about a case where Youngkin is somehow winning or close to winning Virginia Beach and Chesapeake by double digits, is competitive in Suffolk City and is coming within 20 points in places like Newport News. Not sure how likely all that is but if this somehow becomes reality then yes, it would be a pretty dang good sign Youngkin is probably on track to win statewide.

Yes exactly.  I dont expect youngkin to win Hampton roads metro.

VIRIGNIA Beach is the place to watch. If its like 52 to 47 Youngkin.. lol I wouldn't be worried. But if it hits 57.. tmac might as well have his concession speech ready.

I doubt he gets 57 percent in Virginia Beach. That hasn't happened since 2009.

[Duke of York]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

That doesn't indicate much. How many people did you talk too?

[Duke of York]

So I just got off from phonebanking for McAuliffe, and most of the people I contacted were Youngkin supporters. Probably doesn't mean much in terms of who's going to win, but it does worry me. One of them even cussed me out.

That doesn't indicate much. How many people did you talk too?

Like five or six. Most of them didn't pick up.

Is the McAullife campaign just having you call random numbers?   They should be having you call those who were targeted in 2020 and said they were voting for Biden.

I would imagine it's the latter, unless they're really stupid. Either way, it's rather sobering. I really think this race is a tossup.

I disagree. Polling and early voting isn't indicating this.

[Duke of York]

This is not lining up with polls that are showing lower turnout in NOVA than other areas

https://twitter.com/samshirazim/status/1453043558139764741

I think there is a possibility polls could be off like they were in 2017.

[Duke of York]

Wait, Trump actually can't be going to VA right? Is he really going to sabotage Youngkin's campaign?

Even the "talk" of Trump coming reinserts himself into this campaign.

https://twitter.com/TayFromCA/status/1453452631276404742

The most absurd fact is it seems they plan on having it in Arlington. As in, the city that last voted Republican in 1980 and 4 out of 5 people voted against him. That’ll go over like a lead balloon

Very true. The big question is does it happen before the election?

[Duke of York]

I think Youngkin is going to win at this point. I want to be wrong but I’m calling it now so I’m not as disappointed.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1453848626996949015?s=20

I am very pessimistic about this election. I expect to be very disappointed on Tuesday.

[Duke of York]

Take it with a grain of salt, but I was just told that Quinnipiac has horrible data for Biden/McAuliffe. They may be trolling me, but I'll just say this.

If that is true I'm calling the election now. I expect Democrats to only win New Jersey barely and NYC by a lot.

[Duke of York]

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up?

Pollsters have no "understanding" that they change from poll to poll. They have a model, based on historical pattern (if there is a voter file) and on what the voters actually say to pollsters.

So, what happened is that the (D) voters started to say to pollsters, that they are gonna vote/already voted/enthusiastic to vote etc. Pollsters don't make up this like hmmm, it feels like more young Democrats start to vote, let's change the LV-screen matrix.

You pour guys getting so hyped up for a Youngkin win really need to tame expectations. This has Democratic version of Florida/Iowa/Ohio all over it.

You therefore think Youngkin will lose?

[Duke of York]

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up?

Pollsters have no "understanding" that they change from poll to poll. They have a model, based on historical pattern (if there is a voter file) and on what the voters actually say to pollsters.

So, what happened is that the (D) voters started to say to pollsters, that they are gonna vote/already voted/enthusiastic to vote etc. Pollsters don't make up this like hmmm, it feels like more young Democrats start to vote, let's change the LV-screen matrix.

You pour guys getting so hyped up for a Youngkin win really need to tame expectations. This has Democratic version of Florida/Iowa/Ohio all over it.

You therefore think Youngkin will lose?

I have been loudly and obnoxiously banging the Safe D Virginia drum, yes.

I hope your right I really do.

[Duke of York]

I fully expect Youngkin to win at this point. I guess voters are more gullible then I thought. I hope I’m pleasantly surprised but expect to be very disappointed.

[Duke of York]

Youngkin should turn this disgusting episode into a nice final ad.

Trust me .. Virginia is a gop state anyway

Stop. This isn’t true. Your saying totally baseless things.

[Duke of York]

Is Youngkin actually going to win this?  wtf

Seems very likely.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1454175000148250625

I agree..

Yes, I think that's right.  Mostly because Youngkin has been obnoxiously spamming our TV's for months.

Ayala probably does the best of the three, followed by Herring and then T-Mac.  But I expect the differences to be fairly minor and I expect all three to win. 

quoting this as I hope and pray you are correct.

[Duke of York]

Interesting...
https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1454459743079223300?s=20

https://twitter.com/GlennYoungkin/status/1454439970324766722?s=20

crowd sizes mean nothing. How do you know all these people were from Alexandria? They could also simply be choosing to listen. That does not mean they will vote for him.

[Duke of York]

Bruh... If this is true... I wish
https://twitter.com/nedryun/status/1455555600990056452?s=20

What is their source for this?