Polish Politics and Elections

[Duke of York]

Guys, something isn't right here.

These results are way too slow



And Polish television is still reporting that people are waiting to vote at 1AM.

So I suspect PiS might try to rig this and do their Jan 6.

Oh what basis do you make this statement?

[Duke of York]

Poznán gives 44% to KO, do they do better anywhere else?

But nationally the coalition doesn't look like it'll make it past 30. For a moment it looked promising.

Lower down we got the outcome for Częstochowa, is there a running tally of seats somewhere? I don't see one on Wybory.pl

So they aren't going to be able to form a government?

[Duke of York]

Poznán gives 44% to KO, do they do better anywhere else?

But nationally the coalition doesn't look like it'll make it past 30. For a moment it looked promising.

Lower down we got the outcome for Częstochowa, is there a running tally of seats somewhere? I don't see one on Wybory.pl

So they aren't going to be able to form a government?

No, they almost certainly are. "The coalition" in this context is the list that Tusk is leading, not the whole broad opposition front with the agrarian and leftist lists.

Therefore the 3 party coalition Tusk is leading will be able to form a government? Im confused.

[Duke of York]

Warszawa still has 30% left to go.

42 KO
22 PiS
13 TD
13 Lewica
6 Kon
2 BS
1 PJJ

I assume they have gained seats there and could probably get a few more?

[Duke of York]

94.92% reporting (+/- compared to 82.91% in)

PiS: 36.13% (-0.65%)
KO: 30.02% (+0.66%)
TD: 14.44% (-0.04%)
Lewica: 8.44% (+0.10%)
Kon: 7.18% (-0.06%)
BS: 1.88% (+0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (-0.01%)
MN: 0.13% (-0.02%)
Others: 0.15% (+0.01%)

So the three opposition, pro-EU parties of the political center garnered more than 52% of the vote? That's awesome to see and should translate into a stable parliamentary majority.

If so that is a very impressive victory and a big defeat for the right in Europe.

[Duke of York]

Warszawa still has 30% left to go.

42 KO
22 PiS
13 TD
13 Lewica
6 Kon
2 BS
1 PJJ

I assume they have gained seats there and could probably get a few more?

TD looks to be the big winner here.

What party is TD? how are they the big winner in Warsaw?

[Duke of York]

Warszawa still has 30% left to go.

42 KO
22 PiS
13 TD
13 Lewica
6 Kon
2 BS
1 PJJ

I assume they have gained seats there and could probably get a few more?

TD looks to be the big winner here.

What party is TD? how are they the big winner in Warsaw?

Agrarian opposition. Warsaw isn't the sort of place I expect for them to do well

Knowing that I will agree its strange for them to be doing well there. I guess people wanted the ruling party nationally out and saw it as an option.

[Duke of York]

96.24% reporting (+/- compared to 94.92% in)

PiS: 35.92% (-0.21%)
KO: 30.22% (+0.20%)
TD: 14.44% (+/- 0.00%)
Lewica: 8.49% (+0.05%)
Kon: 7.16% (-0.02%)
BS: 1.87% (-0.01%)
PJJ: 1.63% (+/- 0.00%)
MN: 0.13% (+/- 0.00%)
Others: 0.15% (+/- 0.00%)

if you're wondering why 1.25% caused a big 0.2% drop for PiS and 0.2% rise for KO, that was mostly Warsaw, which dropped another 10% in that vote dump.

Still 20% left to go there.

How many seats have they gained there?

[Duke of York]

Constituency No. 1, Legnica, fully reporting. 34.80% PiS, 33.78% PO, 10.75% TD, 9.51% Lewica, 6.33% Konf. Topline in 2019 was 42-25, so this is a major lurch from PiS to PO.

Opposition also flipped all 3 Senate seats here (constituencies 1-3).

How much has the opposition expanded their majority in the Senate?

[Duke of York]

How much has the opposition expanded their majority in the Senate?

The only PiS Senator from Lower Silesia will be Aleksander Szwed from 5th constituency, who won by only 508 votes.
Opposition is going to net gain low teens of Senate seats.

Wow thats impressive! Doesn't the Senate not have much power though?

[Duke of York]

With Duda apparently acting as full PiS partisan hack, how likely is it that he just derails the entire agenda of the new govt? Doesn't he have veto power over bills? He could just refuse to resign every law that undoes a major PiS policy. At least until his term ends in 2025, the Tusk Admin could struggle with getting things done?

yes the Polish President can veto. however, a veto can be overruled by a three-fifths majority vote in the presence of at least half of the statutory number of members of the Sejm (230). Before signing a bill into law, the president can also ask the Constitutional Tribunal to verify its compliance with the Constitution, which in practice bears a decisive influence on the legislative process.

[Duke of York]

local elections are coming up beginning of next month. will be interesting to see what happens.