Census Population Estimates 2020-29

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Their estimates for the northeast have baked in an algorithm for a permanent population decline that will not be adjusted even in the face of actual population data.

NY did not lose 300,000 people in a year from domestic migration, despite Cuomo. That's just the Census Bureau cleaving off numbers from the 20.2 million 2020 Apr 1 Census count to fit where the algorithm thinks it's supposed to be by now. The Census Bureau estimated a population drop for NY over the 2010/20 decade, and cutting off nearly half of the decade's gain in a year will get them back on track.

For a similar reason, the population growth estimates for TX and particularly AZ from 2020 to 2022 are exaggerated to account for their 2020 Apr 1 Census misses -- dramatically so in the case of AZ. It didn't gain a single House seat! But now AZ is the fourth fastest growing state by percentage and third in absolute count, again. Phew.

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Not to belabor this, but this is really, really bad methodology. To put this perspective, the last recorded decrease in NY population was during the 1970s:

NY 1970: 18236976
NY 1980: 17558072

The population dropped 678904, which amounts to around -0.4% year-over-end, over the course of a catastrophic decade with manifest consequences. You didn't need to squint at error bars to see the decay.

Now the Census Bureau is predicting an absolute decrease of half of that in a single year, July 2020 - July 2021.

Census population estimates for 2020/2021

Three states had populations above 20 million in 2021: California (39,237,836), Texas (29,527,941) and Florida (21,781,128). New York dropped below 20 million people in the last year, decreasing from 20,154,933 to 19,835,913.

They never estimated it reaching 20 million in the first place:

2010 April 1: 19,378,102 (Census)
2010 April 1: 19,378,117 (Estimates Base)
2010-2020 Estimates:
19,399,956
19,499,921
19,574,362
19,626,488
19,653,431
19,657,321
19,636,391
19,593,849
19,544,098
19,463,131
19,336,776

Why does this matter? Because these tendentious estimates that fly in the face of reality cost the state -- the entire region -- money and clout in Congress. The east coast gets cheated massively in all infrastructure spending.

[Storebought]

Their estimates for the northeast have baked in an algorithm for a permanent population decline that will not be adjusted even in the face of actual population data.

NY did not lose 300,000 people in a year from domestic migration, despite Cuomo. That's just the Census Bureau cleaving off numbers from the 20.2 million 2020 Apr 1 Census count to fit where the algorithm thinks it's supposed to be by now. The Census Bureau estimated a population drop for NY over the 2010/20 decade, and cutting off nearly half of the decade's gain in a year will get them back on track.

For a similar reason, the population growth estimates for TX and particularly AZ from 2020 to 2022 are exaggerated to account for their 2020 Apr 1 Census misses -- dramatically so in the case of AZ. It didn't gain a single House seat! But now AZ is the fourth fastest growing state by percentage and third in absolute count, again. Phew.

I did not detect a single factoid in your message that is true.

The 2020 estimate for New York was 19.369M.

The 2021 estimate for New York is 19.836 an increase of 500K.

The way that the Census estimates works is that they begin with the census, including age, race, and sex.

If there are 123,456 White persons who are age 23 in 2010 in a particular state, then in 2011 there will 123,456 White persons who are age 24 MINUS those who have died PLUS net domestic immigration PLUS net international immigration. Any births will produce persons between 0 and 1 YO.

Births and deaths are pretty reliable - though there is some ambiguity where to attribute some births and deaths. But migration is much harder to estimate. Domestic migration can be tracked to a certain extent using IRS and SS records, but tax returns are delayed, and there may be trouble matching others. There could be a systemic problem in matching. Perhaps people who don't move are more likely to file one year and not the next. In that case, it would appear that matchers were more likely to be movers than the overall population, but that share might be applied to the entire population.

International migration is most difficult to estimate. There are little records of persons who return to their home country. An international immigrant in 2011 might become a domestic outmover in 2015.

In the early part of the last decade, the Census Bureau revised its international migration downward. This was particularly pronounce in New York which went from a projected gain of +1 for the decade, to zero, -1, and eventually -2.

From 2010 to 2020, the Census Bureau estimated for NY 2.339M births, 1.431M deaths, for a natural increase of 784K (note that births are almost 3X natural increase).

Net international migration was 717K, and net domestic migration of -1.563M. Add these for a net migration of -835K.

Add the natural increase to net migration and you get a net change of -51K. Note in particular that all the components were much larger than the net change, and that the net international migration and net domestic migration are made up of two components each: in and out. International immigration must be necessarily greater than 717K.

Domestic migration tends to be very sloshy. The largest state-to-state flows are Texas to California and California to Texas. People move for a job or adventure, and then move back home, months, years, or decades later. Family composition changes. After a divorce one spouse along with a child move back to be closer to family. They may associate the moved to state with the breakup of the marriage. Retirees to Florida may return to New York in their later years where they can live with a child or at least nearby. At 60 or 65 they were quite able and independent. At 85 not so, particularly after the hip fracture or stroke.

In 2019, NY domestic outflow was 440K and inflow 254K, for a net 186K.

Between 2011 and 2018, net outflow increased by 125%, inflow only decreased by 10%, and outflow only increased by 21%.

It is plain goofy to think that domestic outflow was estimated at 300K vs. a real value of 0K. Instead, it appears to have increased from 200K to 300K.

This could be easily explained by outflow increasing from 450K to 500K and inflow from 250K to 200K. How many elderly Floridians would return to NYC to be placed in Cuomo-de Blasio Happy Home, where they would probably be died and buried in a mass burial pit in the Bronx? Cuomo also posted armed guards on the state borders. People were driving in on back roads around Olean with their headlights covered over at 3 AM to avoid detection. How many college freshmen would arrive on campus to online classes, particularly with tuition of many $10s of thousands. They would wait a year, or take classes from home. And how many upper classmen would not come back in the fall of 2020 or spring of 2021.

If you owned a condo in Florida and an apartment in New York, and spent winter in the south, why wouldn't you decide to stay in Florida full time? If you were forced to work from home, why would you do it from Brooklyn or Queens or Long Island. Why not move to Vermont or Maine or Florida? If you were paying enhanced unemployment, why bother actually looking for a job?

The Census Bureau has not had an opportunity to evaluate why their migration estimates were off, so they are likely using the same methodology with

In the 2020 estimates, between 2019-2020 AZ was the 2nd fastest growing by percentage and third by absolute count. Its rate of increase has declined a bit, and it was passed by Utah and Montana on percentage.

After the housing bubble domestic migration to Arizona declined. People in California who planned to cash out their home equity and retire in Arizona where they could supplement their Social Security, pension, and savings with a few $100,000, were upside down on their mortgages. They couldn't afford to move. As the housing market recovered they could escape to Arizona.

Nice to see that you agree with me not only that Cuomo was not an effective governor, but also that the Census Bureau's method for estimating the largest component of population movement is also the most tending to subjectivity. Using mail forwarding data compiled by the USPS is adequate (except when people don't forward their mailing address, but that seems accounted for), but using data from Redfin and Van Allen Lines is dubious (the latter specializes in relocations by managers and executives). But I take exception to the bolded part: I suggested no such thing. I said their methodology at least outside the sunbelt was flawed, in that the CB vintage estimate exaggerates outflows while suppressing inflows.

Their model never predicted NY reaching 20 million in the first place, now in a year it falls hugely from it -- that matter was addressed in an earlier reply. Their estimate was wrong by 600,000+ in NYC -- only around 30 cities in the US have a larger population than that miss. They also predicted lurid declines in Cook County when informed residents at the time knew the population declines of IL, while widespread, were heavily in Downstate.

You yourself were adamant about MN losing a congressional seat this redistricting.

I surmised that a 1.6% drop in a state population in a single year is a Hurricane (Katrina?) level catastrophe that I did not see evident in NY even considering the COVID fatalities in Apr-June. In other words, an artifact. But besides the bolded part which is a strawman that I take exception with, I see that you agree with me in general, so I guess thanks for the reinforcement.