2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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I was wrong when I said a president can't run on a "law-and-order" platform twice. Well, partially wrong -- Trump couldn't go with that message with white voters, but did so in spades with Hispanic voters.

But I am glad my last posted map was the "doomer" one. I never once believed Biden would win FL.

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FL will only vote Democrat (for president) when the Democrat doesn't need its votes.

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I'm black and I'm honestly wondering how Trump is doing better with my demographic than last time. What do these black Trump voters see in Trump? The Latino results I can at least kinda see with the whole socialism thing, but black voters?

Black voters fed up with BLM and the riots? But that's just suspicion on my part.

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Urban areas still mostly unreported in Ohio, so a likely drift toward Biden coming. A good sign for the rest of the Midwest.

I thought OH was already called for Trump.

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Except Latino voters are mixed race and generally look different than whites. This isn't about assimilation, this is about Trump being a good fit for Latino culture (and Black culture, where he relatively gained as well).

What does this even mean?

He has the machismo thing going for him. I will get a lot of sh*t for saying this, but Biden ran a very feminine campaign, advocating mask wearing, not even doing GOTV, etc. It doesn't play in working class minority neighborhoods. Can you think of a less feminine music genre than rap?

There is much disagreeable about this post .. but I can say that I get your point in one place: Biden/Harris pulling out campaigning in TX because of the bus attack did make the ticket look weak.

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Hot take: Those riots in Kenosha and Philly almost cost Biden the election.

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I don't mean BLM, I mean specifically the riots.

The white suburban swings in Waukesha Co WI and Chester Co PA were obscured by the reaction of the law-and-order minority voters in the inner cities and the industrial suburbs in both states. I say that Biden would have won PA by 100000 votes and cleared 50% of the PV of WI like he did MI if it weren't for the riots.

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Yea, hopefully they don't certify the wrong info. Hopefully, this is just a website error.

It's 100% a human entree error. The board of elections will certify based on the actual canvass report, not the SoS website.  Even if they did though, it wouldn't make a difference. Even with that error, the state isnt close enough for an automatic recount.

If that's the case, then someone with higher privileges should alert Dave, because his AZ data uses the phony Greenley County data, too.

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The AZ senate race on the sos site has the same error for Greenlee County as well:

Greenlee   100.00%   
Kelly 8,418
McSally 13,350
Total 21,768

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Now that's been settled...

Where to find numbers for NY? Atlas Forum TalkElections still shows Biden with fewer than 4 million votes total for some reason.

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How many more votes are there left in NY? The current margin of 7.5 million is scandalous for a state that is awarded 29 EV. Even if the current margin turns out to be a million more, that's still over two million fewer than FL.

Illinois is just as terrible -- 5.9 million votes cast, one million votes lower than PA, despite both states having 20 EVs. Or Texas having 11ish million votes, a little more than FL, but having 38 EVs.

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NY seems unlikely to only be at 22.4%, exactly what the 2016 result was, considering the major swings upstate. Did NYC really swing *that* much rightwards to cancel that out?

If so, was this just another thing seen in all cities across the U.S.? have to imagine it had majorly to do with A) no canvassing by Dems and B) colleges being out

NYC has ethnic groups which swung modestly to Trump—Orthodox and Hasidic Jews, Puerto Ricans, POC immigrants from formerly Communist countries—and we know a lot of affluent college-educated voters have fled the city because of COVID.

I will never understand how Cubans in Hoboken and Dominicans in the Bronx can feel this was the year to be concerned about the dangers of socialism coming from the White House.

Yes, I find that argument for the Hispanic swings in urban areas outside of South FL dubious.