Nevada Primary/Caucus (Feb. 6/8) Megathread

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After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

Under. Williamson will be a non-factor at like 3-4% but Nevada also has None of These Candidates on the ballot and I think None of These Candidates is a far more formidable opponent for Biden than any named opponent he has.

Something like:
Biden 87
None of These Candidates 10
Williamson/Other 3

Seems reasonable. (There's like 10 randos on the ballot too but should be a total nonfactor)

I bet Esmeralda County will do something stupid. Maybe None will win. Idk.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

After Biden hit 96% against Williamson and Phillips in South Carolina with all votes counted, what percent do we think he gets in Nevada against just Williamson? Maybe it's just vibes but Nevada feels like it might be more into fringe figures and/or more prone to a protest vote based off the middle east situation. I can't imagine labor really organized or gave a crap about this.

Any guesses? My guess is 91%. Would you all take the over or under on it?

Under. Williamson will be a non-factor at like 3-4% but Nevada also has None of These Candidates on the ballot and I think None of These Candidates is a far more formidable opponent for Biden than any named opponent he has.

Something like:
Biden 87
None of These Candidates 10
Williamson/Other 3

Seems reasonable. (There's like 10 randos on the ballot too but should be a total non-factor)

Interesting about none of these candidates factor. I forgot Nikki has a shot at being embarrassed.

The Republican Primary is actually what I’ll be most interested in. Some of the eastern counties (Elko and especially Lincoln) could provide a preview of what the Utah Primary could look like come Super Tuesday.

I’m also interested to see how many counties Haley can actually win and whether the zombie candidates Tim Scott and Mike Pence will get any support.

None of the Above could get significant numbers in both primaries. Wouldn’t be shocked if it wins a county on the Dem side too.

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When do polls close? I assume at about 7 PM in Nevada?

Yeah, 7 PM PST, 10 PM EST

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From NYT (link in quote):

“Polls close at 10 p.m. Eastern time, which is 7 p.m. local time in the majority of the state. Officials say they expect the first votes to be reported around 11:00 p.m. Eastern.”

Probably another 40 minutes then.

Anybody got the NYT results links for R and D through a gift link?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/02/06/us/elections/results-nevada-democratic-primary.html?unlocked_article_code=1.TU0.QwjS.33yopwsJ9__P&bgrp=a&smid=url-share

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And I thought California was bad at counting votes.

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Carson City and Mineral are reporting now.

CC Dem: ~2,700 votes
Biden: 88.0
None: 7.2
Williamson: 2.2

CC GOP: ~2,300 votes
None: 58.0
Haley 35.4
Pence 4.3
Scott 1.5

Mineral Dem: ~177 votes
Biden: 74.0
None: 20.9
Williamson: 0.0

Mineral GOP: ~265 votes
None: 77.4
Haley: 17.0
Pence: 3.4
Scott 1.5

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Elko County came in:

Dem: ~800 votes
Biden: 74.2
None 18.5
Williamson: 4.1

GOP: ~2,745 votes
None: 76.1
Haley: 17.5
Pence: 4.3
Scott: 1.6

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Storey County is also reporting:

Dem: ~239 votes
Biden: 87.0
None: 7.5
Williamson: 3.4

GOP: ~299 votes
None: 69.9
Haley: 25.4
Scott: 2.7
Pence: 1.7

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Is Nye County the one that does hand counts for everything now or am I getting that mixed up with somewhere else?

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Lander County now reporting:

Dem: ~69 votes
Biden: 79.7
None: 14.5
Williamson: 2.9

GOP: ~312 votes
None: 74.4
Haley: 15.7
Pence: 5.8
Scott: 1.6

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Haley doesn't seem to be doing well at all in the Mormon counties, although Pence is running relatively well there.

Yeah, Lincoln isn’t much different than Humboldt or Esmeralda which have also come in as of late.

Just waiting on Douglas, Lyon, and Nye.

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Is this the first time anywhere someone has lost an election to NOTA?

The 2014 Dem Gubernatorial Primary was “won” by NOTA. The second place finisher didn’t do very well against Sandoval to say the least.

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Just waiting on Douglas, Lyon, and Nye.

Shocking no one, there was nothing remotely interesting from these counties. All counties are now showing some (most) of their results

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Now, the question for the caucus is whether Trump can outrun NOTA. For all the talk of Haley getting embarrassed, Trump has yet to reach 63% in a primary or caucus thus far.

Haley will be in the race until the SC rules on whether Trump is ineligible to run for office. Her donors will likely continue to fund her campaign until then.

Agreed. The Appeals Court ruling from yesterday probably gave her some more justification, even if she similarly embarrasses herself in her home state.

He’ll beat the percentage, but idk about raw votes. It would be funny if Haley still got more raw votes (apples and oranges of course).

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Well that was a farce. Good job Nevada Republicans for coming up with such a stupid system. Haley obviously still would’ve lost, but it’s rather insulting how this election was conducted. And that goes for other states that used primaries and caucuses in the past too.