UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

You know, in the olden days the death of a monarch would automatically trigger a general election. The Conservatives have to be glad this isn't still the case.

When was the law changed on this?

1867, Disraeli's Second Reform Act.

Since then, monarchs have died/abdicated in:
1. Jan 1901
2. May 1910
3. Jan 1936
4. Dec 1936
5. Feb 1952
6. Sep 2022

Actual elections that happened around those times:
1: Sep/Oct 1900 (a very short parliament)

2: Jan/Feb 1910 and Dec 1910 (that would make 1910 a fun year)

3 and 4: Nov 1935 (this would be a very short parliament followed by another short parliament)

5: Oct 1951 (yet another very short parliament)

6: Been a while since there was one compared to the last deaths and abdication and it sounds like 2024 will be the next one.

Basically it seems like a lot of monarchs liked to die shortly after an election.

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Wonder if there is a way via strategic voting to end up with LD as the opposition party.

Seeing the SNP as the official opposition would be hilarious too. Canada 1993

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It's like they want to replicate Thursday's YouGov poll at the next GE:

https://twitter.com/pippacrerar/status/1576262633921351680

Ah you just beat me to it... Absolutely barmy story. Kwarteng swigging champagne with stockbrokers while the pound crashed.

And talking like the crassest variety of American "construction company founder or semiretired software engineer who had a windfall IPO in the nineties, ran directly for the Senate or a governorship fifteen years later, and won" while he does it. "A great day for freedom"? Isn't this guy supposed to be some kind of Oxbridge historian?

Even Gary Johnson is more eloquent.

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https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1576965307930857475

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https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

Using the Electoral Calculus swingometer, a simple, unweighted average of the last 10 polls listed on Wikipedia has the Tories getting 37 seats.

No way in hell it ends up that extreme, but under 150 is probably plausible.

Yeah, I think that the SNP as Official Opposition numbers are honestly a pipe dream, but under 150 is definitely likely imo. I think that the numbers somewhat underestimate the Lib Dems seats, but I’ve been wrong about that before.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1577327686430511104

What does the projected constituency map look like now?  😂😂

Using the Electoral Calculus swingometer, a simple, unweighted average of the last 10 polls listed on Wikipedia has the Tories getting 37 seats.

No way in hell it ends up that extreme, but under 150 is probably plausible.

Yeah, I think that the SNP as Official Opposition numbers are honestly a pipe dream, but under 150 is definitely likely imo. I think that the numbers somewhat underestimate the Lib Dems seats, but I’ve been wrong about that before.

Lib Dems could potentially overperform depending on what happens with tactical voting, but I'm not quite well-informed enough on British politics to wager as to whether or not that is actually likely.

I know that by-elections are not nearly as much of a national barometer in the UK as special elections in the US, but if we read the entrails from recent by-elections, with a grain of salt or otherwise, it does seem like the Lib Dems are finally regaining credibility as a tactical "anyone but the Tories" option in rural Southern and Welsh seats without much of a natural Labour vote.

That’s what my thinking is as well. I don’t think they’d pick up much in Wales (maybe Brecon and Radnorshire under the current boundaries), but definitely southern England as a whole. The Red Wall polling is pretty clear that it’s going to bounce back to Labour at this point, but we could see the Blue Wall crumble and that will be interesting to see polling from there (I know a pollster or two have surveyed that area more thoroughly, but not recently).

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

You would think these people are deliberately trying to throw the next election.

The only sane conclusion at this point is that she's legitimately still a Lib Dem & is their ultimate anti-Tory sleeper agent.

Sleeper republican too since the Queen died days after meeting her.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

You would think these people are deliberately trying to throw the next election.

The only sane conclusion at this point is that she's legitimately still a Lib Dem & is their ultimate anti-Tory sleeper agent.

I refuse to believe this as it implies a level of competence and strategic thought on the part of the LibDems that would be wholly out of character.

She’s a sleeper from the Paddy Ashdown era

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The Times (Shipman) reporting that Graham Brady isn't inclined to allow a 1922 rule change permitting a VoNC in Truss' first 12 months unless the rebels number half of the parliamentary party, a figure currently equating to 178 MPs.

Getting “We won’t allow it until we know it will succeed.” vibes here. Seems like bet hedging by Brady.

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Nothing like waking up and seeing that there’s like 4 new pages in this thread and that it’s been changed to a Hunt for the Red October pun. Gonna be a fun next few weeks I’d imagine. Though for me the only surprise is just how quickly Liz has screwed things up.

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Bingo card tip for everyone: Look out for the phrases "Graham Brady", "Liz Truss" and "Wise Counsel" in the same line over the next 24-48 hours.

I think it’s just a matter of time before the men in gray suits tell her that she looks tired.

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I don't buy these forecasts that show Labour with over 500 seats. 

That might be because I've never seen anything like that, so it's beyond my imagination. But still, I don't think Conservatives end up with less then 100 seats.

I’m not entirely sure what to think about them, but I would tend to ageee with you to an extent. We’re so far from normal that I don’t think the uniform swing calculators can truly handle it.

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https://twitter.com/aiannucci/status/1582834626803814400?s=46&t=sKxw5MgGm4xm...

Perhaps not as crazy as it sounds? He could be the unity candidate to fall on the sword and end it with a general election. Pretty sure he said he’s not running next time anyway.

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Insert 'final countdown' here.

No can do. That’s by “Europe” and the UK left.

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Plot twist.

Government sent a text to journalists at 1.30am saying it was a confidence issue but No.10 had mistakenly told the Minister to say it wasn’t.

Claiming they‘ll discipline those who abstained (rumours it’s around 16 out of 40- others were paired) but I mean it’s all a joke already.

Imagine if your boss invited you to a meeting, uninvited you, and then your line manager quits as you walk into the meeting, so you leave only to get you were needed.

Yeah, actually, I can kinda understand that. Took me a sec and then I reflected on how much of a mess work has been for me in the last few weeks.

I can only imagine what fresh clusterf[Inks] we have in store for us today (well, still tomorrow for me on the West Coast for another 45 minutes). I’m thinking Truss will be out today (Thursday) or tomorrow (Friday). Biggest sticking point is who will take over. Coffey? May? Gove?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Summer 2022 leadership election: 60 days
Eventual winner's tenure as leader: 50 days

Autumn 2022 leadership election: 4 days
Eventual winner's tenure as leader:   7 hours?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Guarantee this takes a big cut into Labour at the next GE.

Labour is favored but I’d say around 340-350 seats. Nowhere near the landslides

https://mobile.twitter.com/YouGov/status/1584584547156766720

To be fair, isn't this including a lot of constituencies that will vote SNP or for some other third party?

Exactly.

389 is a dreadful result already. You’d think it would be at around 500 with what you’ve seen in the polls

What a ridiculous thing to say. 389 isn't anywhere near the projected 500 seats Labour is polling at right now, but to say it's a "dreadful result" is just excessive dooming.

I think that the 500+ seat projections were probably wishful thinking. At some point, a uniform swing calculator will breakdown.

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First Yorkshire based MP to ever become PM in fact.

Well that’s something at least! The (Solman) ancestral lands are in Yorkshire.

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"Truss didn't speak to you once in 49 days. I spoke to you in just enough time for the Ten O'Clock News of my first. We are not the same."

https://twitter.com/rishisunak/status/1585011876710084608

The Welsh title for the Welsh First Minister has given me a new username idea lol.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The Tories have been lurching from scandal to scandal for over a year now. I’m starting to think that a change in leader isn’t enough for them to figure out their issues. I don’t think Sunak will get tossed before the next election, but who really knows at this point.

"Truss didn't speak to you once in 49 days. I spoke to you in just enough time for the Ten O'Clock News of my first. We are not the same."

https://twitter.com/rishisunak/status/1585011876710084608

The Welsh title for the Welsh First Minister has given me a new username idea lol.

And now for its unveiling.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1595833918523056128

Wait... BoJo and Truss are trying to outflank Rishi on environmentalism? After the thing that finally brought down Truss was forcing her MPs to vote in favor of fracking???

Just. Wild. You can't make this sh*t up.

TIL Britain has a ban on on-shore wind.

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Which government is in more of a mess at the moment - the Holyrood one or the Westminster one?

Can I write in the Stormont here?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Maybe the problem with William is that is just not much there. At least Harry has a personality. He has character. William is just.... blah. Boring, no personality, no real interests, nothing.

Charles can be quirky but there is depth to him.

To go on a tangent about cars, the worst thing a car can do is be boring. A car can be bad, but if it has character or some weird funky features, it’ll have its fans. But an alright car that is super boring won’t have any fans. Who cares about the first gen Honda Pilot?

Wrapping that back around to people, Charles and Harry at least seem human. William seems to have been grown in a test tube to desire the crown and lose his hairline at 30. Looks nice when new, but just gets boring and ignored after a decade and a half. Charles has always at least seemed interested in using the (to borrow an Americanism) bully pulpit. Harry I think in many ways has been treated unfairly (like maybe 10% is self-inflicted). The British press seem to hate Harry more than Andrew, which is frankly disgusting, but what do you expect when Piers Morgan still has a job.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The probability of a Conservative victory is 50%. Either it happens, or it doesn’t.

The probability of me marrying Sydney Sweeney is 50%. Either it happens, or it doesn't.

Same for me, which means that statistically speaking, one of us will marry her.