2024 Third Party and Independent Candidate General discussion

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https://twitter.com/TheEconomist/status/1739596836560683171

No one but the media and some Bernouts care about Cornel West. He’ll be as impactful as Jesse Ventura.

I think a lot of people haven't quite realized that given that West is way more telegenic, famous at least within a certain sphere, and better at giving a good quote than Jill Stein. That said, you're absolutely right that Cornel West is running a Potemkin campaign and won't be on the ballot basically anywhere while Jill Stein will be on the ballot in many relevant states.

Shorter answer: Arab-Americans in Michigan upset with Biden won't be threatening to vote for West, they'll be threatening to vote for Stein or RFK Jr. (Honestly starting to revise my early skepticism of RFK as he's proven to be more serious about this than he originally did and think he might be a way bigger factor than I initially thought)

You think RFK Jr. can collect 12k signatures in Michigan by July 18? I'm skeptical.

As bearish as I am on RFK Jr, I think that 12k signatures is doable in Michigan. That’s just under a quarter percent of the 2020 electorate there.

I do agree with another one of your posts about TX and NC likely being impossible for him.

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RFK Jr. isn't really doctrinaire libertarian.

It's sort of like how I've been forced to vote Libertarian when there's a lack of a better option, but I'm not in any way a doctrinaire libertarian.

Yeah; I think he’d have a hard time getting the nomination if he went for it.

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Per the party's twitter, RFK Jr. met with Reform Party leaders.

https://twitter.com/ReformParty

How many states is that? Two from what I’m seeing on Ballotpedia (MS and FL), but that might be outdated.

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Few things come to mind right now but I'll just point out one for now:

In the event RFK Jr DOES go for the Libertarians, it's also very possible they deny him the running mate of his choice, which could lead to a hilarious situation where they just saddle him running with some random no name Libertarian activist. Because the Libertarians nominate President and Vice President separately that's always a possibility and it's an extremely fun possibility.

They should follow the Bill Weld tradition and force him to run with another fusty ex-governor who has been dragged out of an attic somewhere in New England despite a barely concealed contempt for the Libertarian Party. Jim Douglas was in the headlines recently for suing Middlebury over Cancel Culture, maybe he deserves a shot.

I thought Johnson wanted Weld and had to drag the party kicking and screaming to let him.

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So why isn't Kennedy simply announcing a VP candidate within the next 10 days?

Also, you can choose a VP to run with in Idaho who isn't the candidate you run with in other states. It's not like it will matter.

McMullin did that in 2016. Also, the deadline then must’ve been later since McMullin didn’t enter until August.

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RFK to announce VP choice on March 26th in Oakland, California.

I don't see Aaron Rodgers being the choice if you're going to announce in Oakland, so that eliminates him.

He’s going to nominate Kamala Harris

It is where she announced her campaign (I was there). I definitely think you’re on to something. After all, RFK Jr exists in the context of all in which he lives and what came before him.

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Recall that the Libertarians were polling as high as 15% once the nominations were clinched in 2016, too - while RFK Jr is far more well known than Johnson was at this point, he's also at least as crazy, if not more so. I'd take the over on him getting 5% in the general, for sure, but it's a tough road ahead to be anything other than a spoiler.

John Anderson (who I was a volunteer for) was polling as high as 25% in some polls in the middle of 1980.  He ended up with under 7%.

It happens in every presidential election. RedBan is supporting RFK as delusionally as he once supported Trump.

Johnson 2016, Stein 2016, the abortive NeverTrump candidacy that became Evan McMullin's "run", AmericansElect, the Reform Party in 2000 and 1996, Ross Perot in 1992, etc, etc, etc. They all come in well below their peaks by election day, with perhaps the exception of Perot 1996.

My only quibble there is that Perot shot himself in the foot in 1992 by dropping out and then getting back in. He did lead some polling before he dropped out. Makes you wonder what would’ve happened if he didn’t drop out.

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The Vermont Green Mountain Peace & Justice Party nominated Cornel West for President. This is the new name of the old Liberty Union Party in the state.

Good to know! Are the VT Progressives planning on naming anyone? I know they don’t always choose to run a candidate for POTUS.

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RFK is the real MVP for commissioning a 50-state poll and then releasing the results.

It’s like a monkey paw for Atlas. We wanted a 50 state poll and we got that mess.

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nyt has an article/maps of where third parties/independents are on the ballot. it only includes rfk jr, cornel west and the green party, excluding all other parties/candidates like the psl (who so far are on the ballot in utah, hawaiʻi, idaho and sc as well as having won the california p&f primary in march, although they won't officially nominate their candidate until august). it also misleadingly says that the greens have "failed to qualify" in new york and idaho, despite the fact that jill stein is on the ballot in idaho and is actively gathering signatures in new york (the deadline is not until the end of may)

Not sure about Idaho, but the article does go into specifics about the Greens in New York:

For example, the Green Party recently lost its ballot line in New York State because its candidate did not meet a strict new voter threshold — 2 percent of the total votes cast — in the 2020 presidential election. And so to get on the New York ballot this year, the Green Party must gather 45,000 signatures in a six-week window that closes at the end of May.