CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I don't think there's much to draw from those counties. Most of the swings were pretty small, so it's almost sort of noise (like most of the state). The Bay Area came out in force for Newsom and the Sacramento area continues to trend leftward. The Central Valley south of Stockton always has a Democratic drop-off in off-year elections.

The big anomaly I mentioned in my post in the prediction topic earlier is very apparent on that map: Lassen County. I myself am curious to know what happened there. Turnout was up over 12% in that county compared to 2018, despite a decade of population loss. There has to be something going on. It's not the first anomalous result I've seen from that county. Jerry Brown only lost it by 8% in 2010, two years after Obama lost it by 34% (the latter being a more typical result in that county). I still don't have an explanation for that one (and the county reverted to form in 2014, with Brown losing by 35%).

One of the state prisons in Lassen is slated to close under a newish plan, so I imagine that folks there are POed.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

https://twitter.com/BrianDahleCA/status/1491268827044540420
Republican State Senator Brian Dahle is in
Hes pretty conservative and reps the most conservative part of the state he's probably gonna be the CA GOP's sacrificial Lamb I don't see Faulconer Cox or Jenner if they run beating him out for a second place in the primary.

Ugh, first my assemblyman ran in the recall and now my state senator is running in the general. Glad I’ll have Dems at the state level starting next year. Sad to see that I’ll be out of a Dem district in the US House though. Supposedly that’ll be a swing district eventually, but that’s a conversation for another thread.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

In regards to the AG race, I feel this is gonna be a repeated talking point between now and November:


LA Times: A D.A. issued dire warnings about the Sacramento gun battle suspect. He was released early from prison anyway

The man arrested for possessing a machine gun at the scene of Sunday’s deadly shooting in Sacramento was allowed to leave prison in February despite opposition from the county’s district attorney to his early release.[...]

Almost exactly a year ago, Dist. Atty. Anne Marie Schubert’s office opposed Smiley Martin’s release from state prison to the Board of Parole Hearings in a two-page letter, first reported by the Sacramento Bee. The district attorney’s office asked that he not be freed because he is a career criminal and a danger to the community. Schubert released the letter after a records request but would not comment further.

“Inmate Martin has, for his entire adult life, displayed a pattern of criminal behavior,” wrote Deputy Dist. Atty Danielle Abildgaard. “While the current case on review may not be ‘violent’ under the Penal Code, Inmate Martin’s criminal conduct is violent and lengthy.[...]

California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation officials said the Board of Parole Hearings denied Martin parole under nonviolent parole review in May 2021, but he was later released in February 2022.

He had entered the state prison system in January 2018 with a 10-year sentence. But CDCR officials said prior to reaching a CDCR facility, Martin had already received 508 days of pre-sentencing credits, and received a variety of additional post-sentencing credits and hence was let go early this year, having served his sentence.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-04-05/sacramento-shooting-suspect-got-out-of-prison-early-despite-da-opposition

I don’t know that it could really be used against anyone, but it definitely could help Schubert.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I see that the CAGOP, with characteristic wisdom, are supporting as their gubernatorial candidate…a state senator from Lassen County.

My state senator. Bleh. Glad I won’t be in an abomination of a district that stretches from the Sac metro area to Oregon after this election.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

When do we expect to start getting results?

Polls close at 8PM Pacific, 11 PM Eastern. Results should start coming in by quarter after, but if there’s a tight race, it could be weeks (gdi, California).

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

Will Newsom get over 50% in the primary? I'd guess he ends up around 54%.

I’m almost certain that he’ll break 50% here