CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1448803193496997891?s=20

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are the numbers from Los Angeles County, in case anyone is interested. Red for Biden municipalities, blue for tfg.

NO (Top 15)
• Inglewood (90.41%)
• Compton (89.54%)
• Lynwood (85.96%)
• Maywood (85.57%)
• Cudahy (85.07%)
• Huntington Park (84.42%)
• West Hollywood (83.39%)
• Bell (82.95%)
• Bell Gardens (82.93%)
• Culver City (82.92%)
• South Gate (82.02%)
• Santa Monica (80.30%)
• Commerce (80.12%)
• Paramount (79.96%)
• Hawthorne (79.58%)

NO (Lower 15)
• La Cañada Flintridge (58.83%)
• Lakewood (58.78%)
• Arcadia (57.93%)
• Lomita (56.99%)
• San Marino (56.59%)
• Rancho Palos Verdes (55.18%)
• Westlake Village (54.66%)
• Beverly Hills (54.29%)
• Avalon (53.90%)
• Lancaster (53.43%)
• Hidden Hills (53.39%)
• La Mirada (52.87%)
• Rolling Hills Estates (51.21%)
• Palos Verdes Estates (50.79%)
• Santa Clarita (50.76%)

YES
• San Dimas (51.68%)
• La Verne (51.93%)
• Glendora (53.51%)
• Industry (55.93%)
• Bradbury (57.33%)
• La Habra Heights (59.81%)
• Rolling Hills (62.66%)

Cox 2018/No 2021
• Palos Verdes Estates
o 2018: Cox 53.14% — Newsom 46.86% = R+ 06.28
o 2021: No 50.79% — Yes 49.21%
• Rolling Hills Estates
o 2018: Cox 53.50% — Newsom 46.50% = R+ 07.00
o 2021: No 51.21% — Yes 48.79%
• San Marino
o 2018: Cox 51.67% — Newsom 48.33% = R+ 03.34
o 2021: No 56.59% — Yes 43.41%
• Santa Clarita
o 2018: Cox 50.39% — Newsom 49.61% = R+ 00.78
o 2021: No 50.76% — Yes 49.24%

Newsom 2018/Yes 2021
Aside from Industry*, there were none of these cities. Not sure what’s going on with Industry because in 2018, there were 2,255 votes cast for Governor while in 2021, there were only 59?!?! Any of our California avatars care to explain why this is?

Top 15 Cities Where Newsom Did Better Than 2018
• San Marino (+16.52)
• La Cañada Flintridge (+10.32)
• Cerritos (+10.02)
• Rancho Palos Verdes (+9.60)
• Rolling Hills Estates (+9.42)
• Arcadia (+9.26)
• Diamond Bar (+8.32)
• Palos Verdes Estates (+7.86)
• Temple City (+7.76)
• Rolling Hills (+7.48)
• Walnut (+7.38)
• Monterey Park (+6.74)
• South Pasadena (+6.60)
• Sierra Madre (+5.90)
• Claremont (+5.76)
*Interestingly enough, of all the 10 Cox 2018 cities in Los Angeles County, Newsom did better/no on recall received a higher margin of support in 2021 in all but one (Bradbury, see below). These included Glendora (+4.76), San Dimas (+4.04), La Habra Heights (+3.96), La Verne (+3.86), and Santa Clarita (+2.30).

Top 15 Cities Where Newsom Did Worse Than 2018
• Beverly Hills (-17.16) 
• Irwindale (-13.06)
• West Hollywood (-8.92)
• Bradbury (-7.82)
• Commerce (-6.76)
• Bell Gardens (-6.32)
• Malibu (-6.04) 
• Baldwin Park (-6.00)
• South El Monte (-5.78)
• Pomona (-5.10)
• Avalon (-4.74)
• Lawndale (-4.46)
• Pico Rivera (-4.38)
• Hidden Hills, Palmdale (-4.36)

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

San Bernardino County finished counting their ballots Thursday afternoon.


Turnout: 50.96% (-7.2% from 2018)

No      288,877   50.22%   (-1.32 from Newsom 2018)
Yes     286,364   49.78%

Margin   No +2,513   +0.44%   (-2.64 from Newsom's 2018 margin)

[Oryxslayer]

Aside from Industry*, there were none of these cities. Not sure what’s going on with Industry because in 2018, there were 2,255 votes cast for Governor while in 2021, there were only 59?!?! Any of our California avatars care to explain why this is?

Industry's local politics are F'in disconcerting and weird - thats the only way to describe it. Do a bit of research and a bunch of oddities come to the surface. I'm sure they are behind such a drop off some how.

[Donerail]

Newsom 2018/Yes 2021
Aside from Industry*, there were none of these cities. Not sure what’s going on with Industry because in 2018, there were 2,255 votes cast for Governor while in 2021, there were only 59?!?! Any of our California avatars care to explain why this is?

Inconsistencies (including some shifting precinct boundaries) relating to whether voters in unincorporated areas adjacent to the City of Industry are counted as living in the city.

[Antonio the Sixth]

2018-2021 swing map, at long last.



Mostly polarization + slight Hispanic R drift (or disengagement), but it's kinda weird how there's this random patch of D-trending counties in the middle of the Northern inland. Wonder what that's about.

[politicallefty]

I don't think there's much to draw from those counties. Most of the swings were pretty small, so it's almost sort of noise (like most of the state). The Bay Area came out in force for Newsom and the Sacramento area continues to trend leftward. The Central Valley south of Stockton always has a Democratic drop-off in off-year elections.

The big anomaly I mentioned in my post in the prediction topic earlier is very apparent on that map: Lassen County. I myself am curious to know what happened there. Turnout was up over 12% in that county compared to 2018, despite a decade of population loss. There has to be something going on. It's not the first anomalous result I've seen from that county. Jerry Brown only lost it by 8% in 2010, two years after Obama lost it by 34% (the latter being a more typical result in that county). I still don't have an explanation for that one (and the county reverted to form in 2014, with Brown losing by 35%).

[Skill and Chance]

2018-2021 swing map, at long last.



Mostly polarization + slight Hispanic R drift (or disengagement), but it's kinda weird how there's this random patch of D-trending counties in the middle of the Northern inland. Wonder what that's about.

Techies doing mountain resort WFH?

This map overall is pretty boring.  You could make an argument that the Bay Area swing bodes well for NOVA Dems in VA-GOV, and you could also make an argument that the big swing in Kern/Tulare/Kings bodes poorly for Texas Dems going forward (this is the main oil producing area in CA), but both are a stretch.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I don't think there's much to draw from those counties. Most of the swings were pretty small, so it's almost sort of noise (like most of the state). The Bay Area came out in force for Newsom and the Sacramento area continues to trend leftward. The Central Valley south of Stockton always has a Democratic drop-off in off-year elections.

The big anomaly I mentioned in my post in the prediction topic earlier is very apparent on that map: Lassen County. I myself am curious to know what happened there. Turnout was up over 12% in that county compared to 2018, despite a decade of population loss. There has to be something going on. It's not the first anomalous result I've seen from that county. Jerry Brown only lost it by 8% in 2010, two years after Obama lost it by 34% (the latter being a more typical result in that county). I still don't have an explanation for that one (and the county reverted to form in 2014, with Brown losing by 35%).

One of the state prisons in Lassen is slated to close under a newish plan, so I imagine that folks there are POed.

[Хahar 🤔]

Mostly polarization + slight Hispanic R drift (or disengagement), but it's kinda weird how there's this random patch of D-trending counties in the middle of the Northern inland. Wonder what that's about.

The catastrophic Camp Fire in Butte County began almost immediately after the 2018 election. There may have been some permanent population shifts from that area to Redding as a result, although admittedly this is a stretch. Nobody lives in Trinity County so I would not make anything at all of results there.

As mentioned, the results in Hispanic areas are exactly what you'd expect given the presence of a generally low-turnout group. I'm sure that this answer is unsatisfying to blue avatars convinced of an enormous shift of California Mexicans to the Republican Party, but that seems like their problem.

[Adam Griffin]

Mostly polarization + slight Hispanic R drift (or disengagement), but it's kinda weird how there's this random patch of D-trending counties in the middle of the Northern inland. Wonder what that's about.

My first instinct was "pothead tourists being priced out of the [good parts of the] Emerald Triangle [Humboldt/Mendocino] and deciding to locate somewhat nearby", but I really don't know jack about most of California.

[HAnnA MArin County]

For those who can't wait until the supplement comes out, here are municipality results from Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura counties. Red for Biden municipalities, blue for tfg. Bolded cities indicate those that Gov. Gavin Newsom won in 2018.

RIVERSIDE COUNTY
YES
• Canyon Lake (79.46%)
• Norco (73.97%)
• Calimesa (67.22%)
• Wildomar (65.59%)
• Murrieta (62.06%)
• Indian Wells (59.92%)
• Blythe (59.81%)
• Menifee (59.42%)
• Temecula (59.09%)
• Lake Elsinore (54.68%)
• Beaumont (54.34%)
• Corona (52.62%)
• Hemet (52.43%)
• Banning (51.83%)
• La Quinta (51.43%)
NO
• Eastvale (50.09%)
• San Jacinto (51.16%)
• Jurupa Valley (52.56%)
• Palm Desert (53.49%)
• Riverside (54.42%)
• Indio (58.09%)
• Rancho Mirage (60.33%)
• Desert Hot Springs (62.03%)
• Moreno Valley (64.35%)
• Perris (68.45%)
• Cathedral City (71.98%)
• Coachella (79.51%)
• Palm Springs (79.87%)

SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY
NO
• Rialto (67.72%)
• Montclair (66.20%)
• Colton (65.54%)
• Fontana (62.50%)
• San Bernardino (62.28%)
• Adelanto (61.54%)
• Ontario (60.20%)
• Loma Linda (54.71%)
• Victorville (54.32%)
• Redlands (51.13%)
• Upland (50.36%)
• Chino (50.26%)
YES
• Highland (50.07%)
• Chino Hills (50.65%)
• Grand Terrace (51.44%)
• Rancho Cucamonga (52.11%)
• Twenty-nine Palms (54.90%)
• Barstow (55.24%)
• Needles (60.11%)
• Yucca Valley (60.96%)
• Hesperia (62.33%)
• Big Bear Lake (62.41%)
• Apple Valley (66.15%)
• Yucaipa (69.01%)

VENTURA COUNTY
NO
• Oxnard (70.98%)
• Ojai (70.07%)
• Port Hueneme (65.84%)
• Santa Paula (65.62%)
• San Buenaventura (61.80%)
• Fillmore (58.87%)
• Thousand Oaks (55.19%)
• Moorpark (52.54%)
• Camarillo (52.49%)
YES
• Simi Valley (52.84%)

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1450592065994248195?s=20
lol

[wbrocks67]

From what I can tell, the CNN exit poll has actually adjusted to the final result - if you calculate (if I did it correctly here), it manages to produce a 62-38 result.

That being said, since it's now accurate, it shows:

Newsom approval: 59/39 (+20)
Biden approval: 60/37 (+23)

Biden voters 59-29.

So basically all Biden voters voted No, but some Indies deflected, which makes sense. Biden down 6% from his 2020 result, but Newsom outperforming his own approval by 4%.

[BigSerg]

Mostly polarization + slight Hispanic R drift (or disengagement), but it's kinda weird how there's this random patch of D-trending counties in the middle of the Northern inland. Wonder what that's about.

The catastrophic Camp Fire in Butte County began almost immediately after the 2018 election. There may have been some permanent population shifts from that area to Redding as a result, although admittedly this is a stretch. Nobody lives in Trinity County so I would not make anything at all of results there.

As mentioned, the results in Hispanic areas are exactly what you'd expect given the presence of a generally low-turnout group. I'm sure that this answer is unsatisfying to blue avatars convinced of an enormous shift of California Mexicans to the Republican Party, but that seems like their problem.

A stupid take, considering that turnout did not change much from the 2018 election. Why is this good for the democrats? lol. Hispanics did not vote for you in an election with high turnout and national attention. This was not a midterm election with low turnout.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/UCLAlatino/status/1451591969768022023

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/UCLAlatino/status/1451591969768022023

This is exactly why initial exit polls should NEVER be taken seriously.  They're always way off about subgroups. 

[patzer]

Is this thread being used for the CA 2022 gubernatorial election too? It's listed as it in the megathread directory.

If so- thoughts on that? I guess the big question is whether Newsom gets a serious D challenger this time.

[Non Swing Voter]

Is this thread being used for the CA 2022 gubernatorial election too? It's listed as it in the megathread directory.

If so- thoughts on that? I guess the big question is whether Newsom gets a serious D challenger this time.

There should be a separate thread for that.  But this is nice for historical context to remind doomers how profoundly off GOP enthusiasts were in their recall predictions.

[President Johnson]

For some reason Wikipeedia lists John Chiang as a candidate, but I couldn't find additional indication he's running again.

[Canis]

For some reason Wikipeedia lists John Chiang as a candidate, but I couldn't find additional indication he's running again.

Yeah he's not I think Wikipedia is just listing candidates that filed. Im pretty sure Chiang filed to pay off campaign debt or something. They also have Cox listed and he's made no indication he's gonna run last we heard from him he's undecided on mounting a third bid for Governor.

At the moment the major declared candidates are Gavin Newsom Kevin Faulconer and Kevin Paffrath.
John Drake the college student from the recall is running again and is running a more serious campaign he's actually hiring staff and will probably attempt field.

Newsom is probably safe from another D challenging him he's very popular among California democrats and voters in general so it's just a question of which R he will face in November. Faulconer as the only major R in should be the favorite but he's very moderate and his attacks on Elder during the recall will probably damage him should a more conservative republican enter the race and he's a pretty horrible campaigner as demonstrated by his performance in the recall but who knows he may run a better campaign this year.

But regardless who he faces Newsom is safe he's very popular this is about as Safe D as they come.

[Fetterman my beloved]

Currently Safe D in my opinion. The recall election was such a debacle for the Republican Party that I don’t think a Republican would do to well against a democrat a year later, and I think that even if Newsom gets a challenge from the left it won’t be strong enough to really be that big of a challenge.

[sg0508]

+15 points for the Democrat, no matter who they may be and no matter who the GOP challenger is. I don't think this is a race, even if it's a strong GOP night overall.

The GOP is dead in the water in CA.

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe Newesome anyways.

I dunno why the OP is saying he is "having problems". While not everything is perfect, especially with CA's high cost of living, the state has a major budget surplus and the economy is roaring back. CA is nowhere it was in 2003 or 2010.

[coloradocowboi]

+15 points for the Democrat, no matter who they may be and no matter who the GOP challenger is. I don't think this is a race, even if it's a strong GOP night overall.

The GOP is dead in the water in CA.

The natural result of their "Southern Strategy," and what they have to look forward to in the future in plenty of other diverse states.