CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

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As a viable progressive choice, Dan Kapelowitz and Dennis Richter seem like good choices for California.

Nah, the only viable choice for good governance, which is what matters, is Kevin Faulconer, loath as I am to say that considering his recent salt over trailing Larry Elder.

Arnold Schwarzenegger as a moderate Republican failed to do any governing. Given that both candidates mentioned have adequate executive experience and are not as gross as a suburban R, it’s clear what the sane choices are.

What if I’m a deranged California suburbanite that wants the insane option (Angelyne)?

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Is it just me or does it seem odd that we haven’t had any new polls for what… almost two weeks?

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Looking how this turned into a circus and the potential someone getting elected with 25% of the vote or so gets me to a single conclusion: As soon as it's over, the legislature needs to repeal the recall law entirely. The gov is elected for 4 years and ending is term before it has expires should only be possible with impeachment for clear violations.

I don’t think it should be entirely repealed, but it needs some big changes. Increasing the number of signatures for one and something that prevents a winning recall candidate from winning with 20% of the vote as the second big part.

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Newsom will prevail, but his political future is over at the same time. He will never be president. NEVER.

Even before COVID, he was never gonna be president. NEVER.

Why? He's too slick? I always saw him as someone who was positioning to be the new Bill Clinton/Tony Blair....slick, affable, and charming, but for some reasons it never aligned....

Newsom isn't charming and definitely doesn't have the kind of "I feel your pain" affability that Bill Clinton possessed.

Newsom seems slick to me in a way that isn’t a positive (unlike Clinton). I mean, I still support him and am voting against the primary, but he definitely seems like a politician’s politician.

At this point, I think that Newsom will win by a seemingly disappointing margin, but far better than the worry-wort columns I’ve been seeing the titles of in my news feeds (so like 55-56 to 44-45). No clue about the replacement part, not that it will be necessary.

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As someone who isn't really following this, how in the world can the 1 Democrat in the race not get the ~30% of the vote needed to win if Newsom is recalled? A single Democrat should be able to do that in almost every state, much less California...

Are the parties printed on the ballot?

There’s multiple democrats on the ballot and none of them (even Packrat) are anything resembling legitimate contenders. Packrat is only somewhat known because of his Youtube landlord schtick. The CA Dem Party screwed up by not running a legitimate candidate imo. And yes, parties are listed on the replacement section of the ballot.

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Just a heads up to all voters of California to vote YES on recall and Jeff Hewitt as the Replacement!

That is not a deranged take. Vote no on the recall and the truly deranged move is to vote for Angelyne as the replacement.

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Given California's infamously slow ballot counting, is it possible that we might not know if it succeeded on the 14th?

I think that it will be a bit faster since they can process the mail-in ballots when they arrive. I can’t remember if they can pre-count them or what, but they can at least partially process them before Election Day.

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My bold prediction is that Elder might not even come out ahead in the alternate election. Enough Democrats will be voting that I suspect Paffrath will probably win that ballot (not that it will matter).

That's not going to happen. The PPIC survey that was released two days ago with No leading 58 to 39 also had Larry Elder at first place with 25% and Kevin Faulconer in second place with 5%. It's clear that Republicans have coalesced around a single candidate. That poll also made what I think was the clearly correct methodological decision in not asking about any particular Democratic candidate by name, since none of them have received any significant funding or media attention. There are going to be a whole bunch of Democrats on the ballot; even among No voters who choose to answer the second question, there's no real reason to think that they'll vote en masse for one particular Democratic candidate.

Including just one specific Democrat in a poll for the alternate election is bad methodology, but so is including no Democrat at all. When people open their ballots they will see people with a (D) next to their name, and for a lot of people that's the only cue they'll need. Now, they might all vote for the same (D), the one with relative name recognition, or scatter around a bunch of different (D)s. To have a sense of that, you'd need polls that mention all the candidates by name, which I guess no one wants to do because they're too expensive. But a Paffrath victory doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility to me.

I don’t think Packrat will win the replacement part, but I do think he’ll be the most popular Dem labeled replacement.

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My bold prediction is that Elder might not even come out ahead in the alternate election. Enough Democrats will be voting that I suspect Paffrath will probably win that ballot (not that it will matter).

That's not going to happen. The PPIC survey that was released two days ago with No leading 58 to 39 also had Larry Elder at first place with 25% and Kevin Faulconer in second place with 5%. It's clear that Republicans have coalesced around a single candidate. That poll also made what I think was the clearly correct methodological decision in not asking about any particular Democratic candidate by name, since none of them have received any significant funding or media attention. There are going to be a whole bunch of Democrats on the ballot; even among No voters who choose to answer the second question, there's no real reason to think that they'll vote en masse for one particular Democratic candidate.

Including just one specific Democrat in a poll for the alternate election is bad methodology, but so is including no Democrat at all. When people open their ballots they will see people with a (D) next to their name, and for a lot of people that's the only cue they'll need. Now, they might all vote for the same (D), the one with relative name recognition, or scatter around a bunch of different (D)s. To have a sense of that, you'd need polls that mention all the candidates by name, which I guess no one wants to do because they're too expensive. But a Paffrath victory doesn't seem out of the realm of possibility to me.

Why do you think that Democratic voters will coalesce behind one particular Democrat, considering that that none of the Democratic candidates have done any advertising or have any semblance of a campaign apparatus? I don't see any reason to think that such a thing would happen.

Moreover, considering what the polls tell us about the coalescence of the Republican vote, how would it be possible for a Democrat not only to capture more of the Democratic vote than Larry Elder will the Republican vote, but to do so by so much that it outweighs the fact that an enormous number of Democrats will not vote on the second question?

Paffrath clearly is doing something to get his name out there, or else he would have reached the notoriety to even be included in these polls. If you assume that these polls get at something real in the breakdown of Democratic votes, but also think that the share of total Democratic votes is underestimated, it's not crazy to see him come out ahead of Elder. Of course those are big assumptions, but I think there's reasoning behind both of them. I wouldn't put money down on it, but I wouldn't be surprised if this happens either.

I think that that is fair reasoning. The polls for the replacement question have been all over the place (especially in regards to blank, other, etc), but there’s still a lot of room for a Dem to grow and Packrat would be the one that would at least be more recognizable to folks.

I don’t think that the number of blank votes will be as high as some of the polls are saying. It’s not like a top two race without a Republican. There are at least Democrats on the ballot. If there weren’t, then I think I’d buy a higher number of blanks on the second question.

The Republican coalescing around Elder is honestly what fascinates me more. At this rate, I don’t think any other Republicans will win any counties. I’m still unsure of where he came from, though admittedly, I don’t follow right-wing radio other than what I’ve heard about a lot of their hosts dying of Covid lately.

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I dropped my ballot off today. No/Angelyne (yes, I’m serious)

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Ose is backing Kiley now
https://mobile.twitter.com/DougOse/status/1430252349696577541

Not shocking; the two tan a ranch together for a while. Tbh, the more surprising thing was Ose jumping in the race in the first place.

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Larry Elder is the best thing that could've ever happened to the Newsom campaign.

Yeah, I think whatever chance the recall had of succeeding went out the window when he emerged as the leading alternative.

Elder really helped nationalize the election, I think. That’s not good for the GOP in California.

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My predictions changed to No +10-14 points
Momentum is clearly on Newsom's side Elder has mobilized Dems in a big way still a 10-14 point victory is an embarrassing margin in state as blue as Cali. The replacement candidate map will look like a mess for sure Elder will probably win almost every county because of how many dems are gonna leave it blank

What counties does Elder lose? Does he lose any?

The 2 I expect him to lose are San Francisco (Which I think Paffrath or some other D like maybe Joel Ventresca wins) and maybe San Diego to Faulconer.

I will say that I have seen some support for Kevin Kiley around his assembly district (basically the tri-county area around Folsom Lake). But since that’s split over 3 counties and you also have Ted Gaines running (he represented similar areas in the state senate), I think that Kiley support will be diluted. Doug Ose also complicates things despite the fact that he’s not running anymore; his Congress district covered some of the same areas, as well as into the foothills a bit south of El Dorado (Amador and Calaveras could see some Ose support, but not enough to prevent Elder from winning them, I’d say).

So, all that to say, I don’t think that Elder will lose the replacement vote to any single candidate in Placer, El Dorado, or Sacramento Counties.

I’ll be interested in blank votes by county for sure.

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There isn't a none of these option so Elder will still carry a number of counties with odd pluralities. The variance between vote totals on the recall and the replacement questions will be wide.

I believe that counties will still list undervotes (I know Sacramento County does since I’ve looked at their detailed results in the past); they usually do. That should be a good enough proxy even if it’s not a Nevada style NOTA option.

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There isn't a none of these option so Elder will still carry a number of counties with odd pluralities. The variance between vote totals on the recall and the replacement questions will be wide.

I believe that counties will still list undervotes (I know Sacramento County does since I’ve looked at their detailed results in the past); they usually do. That should be a good enough proxy even if it’s not a Nevada style NOTA option.

All election reports are required to list over, under, blank, and write-in votes in final reporting. As far as election night goes, should be simple enough to do a Yes/No minus Sum(candidates) for a undervote estimate accurate to >90%.

That might actually a a better way to do it since it will weed out those who turned in a blank ballot. Granted, there may still be people that left the recall part blank while choosing a candidate. 🤷🏻‍♂️ I think that, like you said, it should be at least 90% accurate. Aka good enough to draw conclusions from with a fair amount of confidence.

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Further to the discussion on maps, it looks like NOTA is on track to win more counties than Elder.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1435625159570837505?s=21

NOTA winning question 2 would probably be a good look for Newsom, and give the Dems in the state legislature a better platform to advocate reform of the recall process.

Will still be a pyrrhic victory if Newsom wins by a margins of <10%, which would be kinda embarrassing in CA of all places. Given the narrative about a close race, I doubt it will hurt him this year, but I think there's a chance it could come back to haunt him in the blanket primary next year though ("Gavin Newsom nearly handed CA over to a GOP governor who might have appointed Feinstein's successor. Do you really trust him with another term? Vote Chiang/Villarosa/etc").

There’s a chance of someone running on this, but I don’t think that they’d be very successful. Granted, it would be hilarious if say Chiang ran and made it to second place and locked the GOP out and then the GOP’s hatred of Newsom drives some of them to vote for Chiang (see CA-Sen 2018 where De Leon did very well in many of the most Republican areas simply because he wasn’t Feinstein).

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Total ballots returned: 7,916,876
Dems 4,143,960 (52.3%)
Reps 1,981,634 (25.0%)
Ind/Other 1,791,282 (22.7%)

Turnout = Dems (40%), Reps (37%), Ind/Other (27%)

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Again, for comparison on election eve 2020, it was 12.1M ballots returned, with Dems 50.9%/Reps 24.4%/Ind-Other 24.6%.

Turnout was Dems (61%), Reps (55%), Ind/Other (46%)

Dems were +26.5 on Reps in 2020 on this day, today its +27.3.

Thanks for continuing to post these updates!

For reference, there were about 12.7 million ballots cast in the 2018 gubernatorial election and 17.5 million in the 2020 presidential election.

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Do Republicans believe that any election they lose is by definition fraudulent?

The more Trumpian ones, I think so at this point.

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The Counties to watch tomorrow night:

Los Angeles County: Minority and White Dem turnout
Orange County: Suburban voters
Imperial County: Hispanic Turnout
Santa Clara County: Newsom's home region advantage
Kern County: Hispanic and GOP turnout
Santa Barbara County: Statewide Bellwether
Shasta County: GOP turnout
Yolo County: College voter turnout
San Francisco: Newsom's home turf
Nevada County: Ski Resorts
  

Inyo County: the County's one and only voter.  What will he do?

(Seriously though, thank you for this, Thunder!)

If 2020’s results hold, I think I might be more confused than if Inyo went back to its usual results. I’ll probably be in Bishop on Saturday haha. I’ll see if anything screams “This is Newsom/Biden Land”.

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Well, I don’t know that there’s rain anywhere in the state, so at least we don’t have to worry about “rain in NorCal” takes in this thread.

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What counties might Elder lose on the replacement question?

Possibly San Diego to Faulconer, the bluest counties in the bay area to Paffrath or another D, and Kiley has a good chance at winning at least one of Sacramento, El Dorado, and Placer.

Besides those Elder should sweep the rest of the state.

Idk about Kiley’s chances in those counties, but they’re definitely the ones to watch to see how he does. I would be interested to see if he wins his assembly district area (idk if that’ll have to be calculated manually or if it will be in the statement of vote or something when it’s certified).

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Final predictions, bookmark this if I'm wrong:

Newsom survives by mid teens.

Recall wins Orange by high single digits. Fresno will vote to the right of Orange.

Elder wins almost every county in the replacement map, exceptions being Faulconer likely winning San Diego, Paffrath winning the Bay Area, and Killey possibly winning Sacramento (latter prediction may be a stretch but could happen).

Jenner (at best) wins one or two precincts in Hollywood (if she's to win any at all), though she will likely not even finish top 5 after Elder seemed to unite the republicans around him.

Quoted for posterity and to note that I don’t think Kiley will win any counties.

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As to the huge shift in already solid Republican Lassen County, there’s a state prison up there that is slated to close, so I’d imagine that a lot of people (well, a large percentage lol) up there are POed about that. My state senate district covers the area and the state senator (who is from rural Lassen county) is not happy about it. It provides a lot of jobs up there.

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The Counties to watch tomorrow night:

Los Angeles County: Minority and White Dem turnout
Orange County: Suburban voters
Imperial County: Hispanic Turnout
Santa Clara County: Newsom's home region advantage
Kern County: Hispanic and GOP turnout
Santa Barbara County: Statewide Bellwether
Shasta County: GOP turnout
Yolo County: College voter turnout
San Francisco: Newsom's home turf
Nevada County: Ski Resorts
  

Inyo County: the County's one and only voter.  What will he do?

(Seriously though, thank you for this, Thunder!)

If 2020’s results hold, I think I might be more confused than if Inyo went back to its usual results. I’ll probably be in Bishop on Saturday haha. I’ll see if anything screams “This is Newsom/Biden Land”.

I did go to Bishop today. Basically no one except employees and a few other people were wearing masks. So, I don’t think it’s the source of Inyo’s blue shift. Haven’t looked at precinct data at all.

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Where did the new votes come from?

Stacey Abrams’s patented ballot printer