Tough to say, really. I don’t think that Trump will get re-elected, so option 1 is out.
At this point, Biden still has the best chance of being the Dem nominee imo. I somehow doubt that he has two terms in him. That being said, I’m also not 100% confident that a Dem elected in 2024 could serve two consecutive terms following a single Biden term. Being stymied by the senate (at least 2021-2023, I think) for at least two years is gonna hurt the Dems a lot, I think. I’d guess 2024 or 2028. That being said, I think that someone like Warren could do two terms if she wins the nomination next year.
Trump 2017-2021
Biden 2021-2025
Dem 2025-20??
Or
Trump 2017-2021
Warren 2021-2029
?
I’m leaning options 2, 3, or 5. I guess I’ll go with option 3?