Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

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No paywall for NYT today, yes.

Best thing I’ve read in this thread.

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Oh god are we actually trying to extrapolate from early exits?

It’s atlas, of course there are people doing that

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California races are going to take a while to call. Ballots postmarked by today have until Friday to reach their respective county offices.

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Funny thing:

In 2012, the Senate margin of all 33 states was D+12 and Dems gained 2 seats.

Now, the Senate margin in all 35 states is D+15 and Dems lost 3 Senate seats with basically the same people running on the Dem side as in 2012 ...

Dems ahead by 46 million votes to 33 million votes for the Republicans in the Senate.

What happens if you replace california with the gubernatorial votes and add maybe 5 percent to the dems?

That’s a really good point. CA having two Dems for senate makes it hard to do popular vote comparisons like that.

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https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1060278628548837376

Plus ballots in the mail postmarked by yesterday.

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The county map of CA-Sen seems like the most definitive refutation of the rational choice model of proximity voting I've ever seen.

Part of me wishes that De Leon had won simply because of how funny it would be that Republicans chose someone to the left of DiFi.

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Just relax. If Mrs Sinema wins this, Nelson and Espy, too, it will be anybodies guess what's happening next. Maybe Donald has no love for McConnell anymore, and then tries to fire Mike Pence?

Espy isn't winning, lol.

Thank you. MS-special is fools gold for the Dems.

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Since Sinema is going to be the first bisexual senator, she's going to have the most credibility to answer the question "Who is the most attractive Senator"?

Heinrich and Gillibrand

Heinrich is the only acceptable answer on the male side. You could make compelling arguments for Gillibrand, Flawless Beautiful CCM, Harris, and well, uh Sinema herself?

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More news from CA: Tony Thurmond is only behind Marshall Tuck by about 13,000 votes.

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More news from CA: Tony Thurmond is only behind Marshall Tuck by about 13,000 votes.

Have late ballots been breaking towards Thurmond?

I don’t have exact numbers, but it has been getting tighter. I’d lean yes to your question.

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Kyrsten of the House Sinema, the First of Her Name, The Unbeaten, Queen of the Mohave, the Arizonans and her citizens, Queen of Phoenix, Khaleesi of the Desert, Protector of the Realm, Lady Regnant of the Seven Kingdoms, Breaker of Chains and Mother of Senators

Didn’t the Lemony Snicket books have a King of Arizona? I guess they have a queen now.

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More news from CA: Tony Thurmond is only behind Marshall Tuck by about 13,000 votes.

Have late ballots been breaking towards Thurmond?

Yep. CA Secretary of State now has him leading by 4,000 votes

Sweet

Also, holy crud. Betty Yee is at 63.8% for controller.

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I'd probably prefer to be McAdams over Love right now with what votes are left. But McAdams is already in Washington D.C with the rest of the freshmen congress, that seems premature with how close this race is.

I'm pretty sure that happens all the time in close races.

Yeah, it’s 100% normal. Ami Bera (my Rep) went in 2012 before his race was officially called for him.

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Sac County dumped about 50k (rough estimate) 40k ballots. Thurmond did slightly better than he had been doing (Tuck is down to 51.2 from 51.4). We’ll see where this race stands statewide within a couple of hours (SoS usually reports by 9 eastern, 6 pacific).

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I haven't been following the California dumps that closely.  I know it's going to be tough for Kim and Walters (though I think both still have a shot), but does it still look like Cox is going to win Orange County?

The King county dump did have a net gain for Valadao, but it wasn't too great. We'll see.

John Cox (against Gavin Newsom)!  I know it's the wrong thread, but this one seems to be more active.  And Valadao's district isn't even in Orange County!

No complaints here. Not sure why the other one never took off.

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Tony Thurmond is up to 50.4% against Marshall Tuck’s 49.6% in CA-Superintendent.

Edit: Betty Yee is at 64.3% for controller now. Dang

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Over 3.2 million votes left to be reported. I say reported because many of the counties in the list have not reported since election night or the early morning after. I’d guess that there’s less than 2 million that need to be “counted.”