UK General Discussion: 2017 and onwards, Mayhem

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Jared O'Mara MP (Sheffield Hallam, so my MP) has resigned from the Labour Party, only a few days after he was re-admitted having been suspended last autumn.

I have the feeling that he's going to randomly resign within the next year or so; yet to make his maiden speech, and will now face what is going to no doubt be a single term in Parliament, as Labour will select a new candidate, who will most likely lose to the Liberal Democrats.

Such a shame that Oliver Coppard didn't win for Labour in 2015.

If O'Mara resigns, is Clegg likely to be the LibDem candidate?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Jared O'Mara MP (Sheffield Hallam, so my MP) has resigned from the Labour Party, only a few days after he was re-admitted having been suspended last autumn.

I have the feeling that he's going to randomly resign within the next year or so; yet to make his maiden speech, and will now face what is going to no doubt be a single term in Parliament, as Labour will select a new candidate, who will most likely lose to the Liberal Democrats.

Such a shame that Oliver Coppard didn't win for Labour in 2015.

If O'Mara resigns, is Clegg likely to be the LibDem candidate?

No, Liberal Democrats selected their candidate for that months ago (it's one of the local councillors).

She isn't a councillor, actually.  I think that if there's a by-election (which there may well not be; O'Mara says he's staying on as an independent) Lib Dems select again, but I imagine in this case they'd choose the same candidate.

Clegg said he didn't want to stand again.

Thanks for your answers!

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

It's really odd looking at the map and seeing no lib Dem mp in Devon or cornwall, how times have changed..

Lib Dems were close in St Ives, but that's just one of 6 Cornwall seats. They weren't close in any of the other five. Nothing really close in Devon either. It's reflective of the huge loss in popular support for the Lib Dems since 2010.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1026772623156543488?s=19

No change among any of the big national parties.

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[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Boris Johnson makes me think of what you'd get if Donald Trump and disgraced media baron Conrad Black had a baby.

A friend of mine says that "Donald Trump is what you'd get if Ross Perot and George Wallace had a hate-child in a dumpster next to 4chan's main server cluster," which would make Johnson the grandson of Ross Perot and George Wallace. Sounds about right.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Labour and Tory MPs in talks over setting up new centrist party

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[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Newspaper reports have correctly predicted about thirty of the past zero Labour splits. Doesn't mean that nothing will happen - there's a huge amount of strain at present for various reasons - but people need to avoid being credulous.

Anyway, the irony of the present situation is this: if a genuine equivalent of the original SDP were to be formed - a more moderate and small 'l' liberal version of the Labour Party headed by three and a half popular former cabinet ministers formed at a moment of apparent national crisis - it would almost certainly sweep all before it in the current climate; the various structural factors that doomed the SDP are no longer relevant. Trade Unions no longer have any hold over the political imagination or voting habits of the historic Labour electorate, the remarkable grassroots political organisation still possessed by the Conservative Party in the 1980s is long gone, the postwar generation - with its deep sense of loyalty towards Labour and the Tories and its propensity to turn out at extremely high rates - is dead, and the LibDems do not have the cross-class credibility as a protest option that the old Liberals had. The critical part, however, is 'three and a half popular former cabinet ministers' - a couple of callow randoms who are not even household names in their own houses would (probably) not cut through, no matter how widely reviled May and Corbyn are these days.

Three and a half former ministers? Which one was the half?

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Young Labour really isn’t helping. I mean, I’m somewhat cooling on the breakaway MPs, especially the 8th, but tweeting that crap is not good.

Good to see the "friends of Israel" purging themselves out. Will help labour get a clearer message and win even more decisively next election.

Like they did this time? There's more chance of me dating Jennifer Lawrence, who has just gotten engaged.

Now you only have to compete against one dude.

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I've been following Anna Soubry on Twitter since either the 2015 election or the 2017 election.  She's very impressive. She'd make a good leader for either this rump group or in a partnership with the Liberal Democrats.

I know Sinn Fein don't take their seats in Parliament, but with these 3 defections the Conservative and the DUP non-coalition now have 325 of the 650 seats in Parliament - a minority.

Arguably 324 given that Bercow (the Speaker) doesn’t really count.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

They did poll in the mid 40s, and high 50s in 198(2?) when Thatcher was at the height of unpopularity, and Labour were well Labouring.

Of course the usual disclaimers apply (FPTP, lack of brand, lack of candidates, no policies etc etc) but this has finally made Westminster wake up to how bad both leaders have been performing, and its much harder to have business as usual if both parties are terrified they're going to get MPs poached.

Right, the acceleration was pretty fast. They were in the low 30s when the SDP officially launched in late March 1981 and had reached the 40s by summer 1981, peaking in the 50s in the winter of 1981-2, shortly before the Falklands War.

Wiki’s page on polls for the 1983 election, for reference.