Senate seats in play in 2016

[Württemberger]

Alaska - only if Murkowski retires or is ousted by a Tea Partier and/or Begich decides to give it another go

Colorado - GOP would be smart to stick to playing defense only, but if they go on offense then CO is the most likely seat they'd target after NV

IL - Will obviously be a very competitive state (it could become the race of the cycle, IMO), but I think that Kirk is a strong enough campaigner/incumbent that he'll be able to create a decent amount of Clinton/Kirk voters in the monied Chicago suburbs to eventually eek out a narrow victory

IA - I think Grassley will walk back his commitment to seeking another term and if he retired a candidate like Culver or Vilsack could lock this one up as a Democratic pickup

MO - The Missouri Democrats certainly have a shallow bench, but Roy Blunt is the epitome of GOP politician turned corporate sellout and that won't fly well in the Show-Me-State if Democrats can properly exploit it.  Look for Blunt to have primary problems as well.

NH - Will be competitive for obvious reasons, but I think that Democrats would be better to focus elsewhere as Ayotte's a pretty good fit for the state.  Hassan could make the race interesting but I doubt she goes down the rabbit-hole.

NV - This will probably be the race of the cycle.  Even against Sandoval I think Reid has a lot of fight left in him and will end-up winning.

NC - Look for Blunt to retire.  In that case I think the GOP taps Renee Ellmers with the Dems going with Stein or Foxx.  I don't think Hagan's interested in getting back to the Senate.  A Stein/Ellmers matchup would be very close, narrow advantage to Stein.

PA - Toomey's vulnerable, and it looks like Sestak will be the Democratic nominee.  I think Sestak comes up short again though.

WI - Johnson's a goner.  Ron Kind will head to the Senate in 2017

Democrats will pick up seats, but it won't be enough

I think you are underestimating Clinton's support in PA, she is crushing Jeb or Romney.  But, until we have a Quinnepiac University to confirm the PPP poll, I think we are gonna win PA

As far as OH, CO and NV, I think Mike Coleman can oust Portman, in case we lose Reid.

I hope Bennett, Coleman, Hassen, Duckworth, and Sestak and Kind win.

Sorry, but Hillary won't crush the Republicans in Pennsylvania in a competitive election. Also remember Rick Santorum in 2000: He won in PA even though Gore defeated Bush in PA by a big margin.

[Württemberger]

Württemberger, this has been hashed out on other threads. Santorum's opponent was from the wrong part of the state and completely broke coming out of the primary, so he wasn't even considered a real candidate by voters in SEPA who split Gore-Santorum that year. Also Santorum hadn't yet acquired his image as a complete gay-sex-obsessed buffoon that doomed him in 2006.

Ok, then what about Arlen Specter? He survived both 1992 and 2004.