rough 2040 electoral map

[bobloblaw]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

[bobloblaw]

Assuming Republicans moderate on social issues as the Baby Boomers die off, gaining back their traditional strength in the suburbs.  Also assuming Democrats counter this development by realizing they need to win back "working class Whites" by focusing more on "kitchen table issues."

Baby Boomers are social conservatives??? LOL. Listening to people talk about politics today, youd think the generation that coined the term "Tune In, Turn On and Drop Out" are a bunch of rabid rightwingers.
Support for Abortion is actually highest among those over 50, perhaps because they remember the days before Roe. It is Millennials who are the most prolife, not Boomers.

[bobloblaw]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

[bobloblaw]

My guess:

Republicans will NEVER. EVER. concede Florida and Texas. They will do everything to improve their showing with Hispanics. As the party becomes more moderate and does very well with White voters, IL/MI/PA, which are also losing population, are starting to trend heavily Republican.

Looking at NM strongly suggests that the "long run" Republican percentage with Hispanic voters is only in the 30's.  The better situation in Texas has more to do with the culture there skewing everyone right.  But if Texas truly does take on another 10-15 CDs, the culture will inevitably be pulled to the center and become less distinctly Texan.  

One problem with TX is the GOP at the state level gets a higher percentage of the hispanic vote (30-40%) than the Dems get of the white vote (25%). This will make TX closer, but it never flips permanently.

[bobloblaw]

My guess:

Republicans will NEVER. EVER. concede Florida and Texas. They will do everything to improve their showing with Hispanics. As the party becomes more moderate and does very well with White voters, IL/MI/PA, which are also losing population, are starting to trend heavily Republican.

Looking at NM strongly suggests that the "long run" Republican percentage with Hispanic voters is only in the 30's.  The better situation in Texas has more to do with the culture there skewing everyone right.  But if Texas truly does take on another 10-15 CDs, the culture will inevitably be pulled to the center and become less distinctly Texan.  

One problem with TX is the GOP at the state level gets a higher percentage of the hispanic vote (30-40%) than the Dems get of the white vote (25%). This will make TX closer, but it never flips permanently.

Also hispanics are Texans

[bobloblaw]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

[bobloblaw]

The GOP is probably near it's ceiling with white voters currently. If they didn't bolt under the black guy, I doubt they are going to start bolting in large numbers in the next few years.

Not even close. As the Dem party needs fewer and fewer white votes, it will become more and more hostile to whites.

[bobloblaw]

I don't think a Cuban fireman in Miami or a Puerto Rican doctor in NYC has anything more in common with a Mexican rancher in Arizona.  And yet, we see that the three are converging on a common voting pattern over the past decade.  The argument for the GOP ceiling with white voters being 75% is that the remaining 25% identify as liberal/progressive. 

Hispanics, as a whole, tend to be on the lower end of the economic ladder, and thusly more Democratic. The 30% of Hispanics that Republicans do get though are usually the wealthier (i.e. doctors) or more conservative (older Cubans) ones.

Hispanics only vote the way they do largely because, for the vast majority of them, their economic interests align with the Democratic party. As they become more assimilated, more will become either Republican or upper Middle Class Democrats.

Youre correct and that is why Amnesty is suicide for the GOP.

My favorite moron open border C of C GOP argument is that hispancs are socially conservative and thus will vote GOP. Well guess what?? Blacks are more socially conservative than whites and they NEVER vote GOP

[bobloblaw]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

You realize that there's a ceiling to the Republican white vote, right? Just like there's a ceiling to every voting group ever?

The ceiling isnt fixed. In the 1930s the ceiling of the white vote for the GOP was less than 45%. Today it is likely 20 points higher. It changes overtime.

[bobloblaw]

WI, PA and MI aren't going to be republican.

Yeah they will. As whites decline in % of the population, the % of the white vote that goes GOP will increase from 60% today to close to 75% by 2040. Whites will start acting like minorities and vote like them

1. The white % in places like OH, PA, and MI isn't going to drop much below 60% by 2040 or even 2060.

2. You're assuming parties stay the same.

3. Why are white voters going to vote even more Republican than Hispanics today vote Democrat? What's going to make liberal or moderate whites vote Republican? They're not going to buy into racial pandering, and there's a a common cultural link between African Americans that doesn't exist amongst whites. The white vote is and always will be much more varied.

The parties wont stay the same. The Dem party by 2040, will be a full fledged anti-White party. Like the ZA ANC. Kind of like former anti-aprtheid white South Africans who now vote for the National Party.

The Dem party will do everything it has to do to keep blacks and hispancs on the plantation. If that means inflaming racial hatred, they will do it.When they do it, they will lose white votes.

Oh, so you don't really have any idea what you're talking about, you're just spouting off talking points.

Got it.

Its already happening. Slowly but whites vote GOP now at 60% and over 60% in midterms of 2010 and 2014.

Dems will go all out to keep the hispanic and black votes. I predict that Reparations will become a Dem campaign position by the mid 2020s

You realize that there's a ceiling to the Republican white vote, right? Just like there's a ceiling to every voting group ever?

The ceiling isnt fixed. In the 1930s the ceiling of the white vote for the GOP was less than 45%. Today it is likely 20 points higher. It changes overtime.

Right, but not to 70 or 75%. It's been steady at 50 - 65% for decades now.

50-65% is quite a range. The share of the white vote going to the GOP has been slowly rising for at least 10 years. I know it is frightening to you but the white vote will be as GOP as hispanics are Dem. 70-75% by 2030.

[bobloblaw]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

Wrong. Bush in 88 and 04 won 57% of the white vote. Romney won 59%, more than anyone else except Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984. The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

[bobloblaw]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

Wrong. Bush in 88 and 04 won 57% of the white vote. Romney won 59%, more than anyone else except Nixon in 1972 and Reagan in 1984. The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

THANKFULLY, there will be enough Republicans who realize we can't survive by being some rural-themed nativist party that don't like big city folk (sorry I just shattered your wet dream), and the GOP will realize it NEEDS to not rely on only White votes.

If you're an affluent minority, you should be voting Republican.  If you're a socially moderate (e.g., not socially liberal) minority, you should be voting Republican.  The fact that those voters aren't supporting us shows that we have an image problem, an image problem that your ilk are the main cause of.

Because Illinois shows how to lead right? Just hope the Dems are corrupt and incompetent enough so the voters will elect the GOP to one ineffectual term

[bobloblaw]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

The 2012 campaign. Booing God and Israel. Running away from white blue collar workers. Some conservatives say the 4-5 million whites who stayed home were conservatives who didnt like Romney. More likely they were white blue collar workers who didnt like Obama and felt abandon by the Dems but didnt support the GOP.

[bobloblaw]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

The 2012 campaign. Booing God and Israel. Running away from white blue collar workers. Some conservatives say the 4-5 million whites who stayed home were conservatives who didnt like Romney. More likely they were white blue collar workers who didnt like Obama and felt abandon by the Dems but didnt support the GOP.

Does that describe you?  If so, get lost and go try to reform the Democrats to be a party more to your liking instead of what you're doing now in the GOP (i.e., ruin THEIR electoral prospects, not ours).

This is what I like about you, you recognize what the parties are supposed to be. I wish that more Rockefeller type Republicans would stay in the GOP instead of infecting the Democrats with their cultural elitism.

While I strongly object to the notion that being a pro-civil rights, pro-business Republican in the classical "Rockefeller" sense is inherently elitist (I live in a quaint town in Maine full of "Rockefeller Republicans" [it's majority Republican registration but voted Obama twice], and I wouldn't describe these people as elitist in any way), it does bother me that there seems to be a growing movement of ... well, let's just say it: culturally intolerant people ... who seem hell-bent on fully transforming the GOP into a full-fledged nativist party of "real Americans."  It's disturbing.

We dont need you in the GOP

[bobloblaw]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

The 2012 campaign. Booing God and Israel. Running away from white blue collar workers. Some conservatives say the 4-5 million whites who stayed home were conservatives who didnt like Romney. More likely they were white blue collar workers who didnt like Obama and felt abandon by the Dems but didnt support the GOP.

Does that describe you?  If so, get lost and go try to reform the Democrats to be a party more to your liking instead of what you're doing now in the GOP (i.e., ruin THEIR electoral prospects, not ours).

This is what I like about you, you recognize what the parties are supposed to be. I wish that more Rockefeller type Republicans would stay in the GOP instead of infecting the Democrats with their cultural elitism.

While I strongly object to the notion that being a pro-civil rights, pro-business Republican in the classical "Rockefeller" sense is inherently elitist (I live in a quaint town in Maine full of "Rockefeller Republicans" [it's majority Republican registration but voted Obama twice], and I wouldn't describe these people as elitist in any way), it does bother me that there seems to be a growing movement of ... well, let's just say it: culturally intolerant people ... who seem hell-bent on fully transforming the GOP into a full-fledged nativist party of "real Americans."  It's disturbing.

We dont need you in the GOP

Yeah you do.

Unless you want the GOP to be locked out of the EC permanently.

Rovckefeller GOPers add nothing and are nonplayers in states like VA, CO, FL and OH. Who cares about CT, NY and RI?

[bobloblaw]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

The 2012 campaign. Booing God and Israel. Running away from white blue collar workers. Some conservatives say the 4-5 million whites who stayed home were conservatives who didnt like Romney. More likely they were white blue collar workers who didnt like Obama and felt abandon by the Dems but didnt support the GOP.

Does that describe you?  If so, get lost and go try to reform the Democrats to be a party more to your liking instead of what you're doing now in the GOP (i.e., ruin THEIR electoral prospects, not ours).

This is what I like about you, you recognize what the parties are supposed to be. I wish that more Rockefeller type Republicans would stay in the GOP instead of infecting the Democrats with their cultural elitism.

While I strongly object to the notion that being a pro-civil rights, pro-business Republican in the classical "Rockefeller" sense is inherently elitist (I live in a quaint town in Maine full of "Rockefeller Republicans" [it's majority Republican registration but voted Obama twice], and I wouldn't describe these people as elitist in any way), it does bother me that there seems to be a growing movement of ... well, let's just say it: culturally intolerant people ... who seem hell-bent on fully transforming the GOP into a full-fledged nativist party of "real Americans."  It's disturbing.

We dont need you in the GOP

Yeah you do.

Unless you want the GOP to be locked out of the EC permanently.

Rovckefeller GOPers add nothing and are nonplayers in states like VA, CO, FL and OH. Who cares about CT, NY and RI?

Moderate GOPers certainly add in places like VA and CO, but also in NH and the Upper Midwest.

You can't have the party just be dominated by small-minded idiots forever. It'll collapse.

When a candidate appeals to moderates, they lose more than they gain.

[bobloblaw]

Clearly every single State will be voting Democrat by then because of demographics and support for gay marriage. That's at least what Democrats have told me and they really seem to have a religious-level belief in it so ...

A lot of Dems and liberals believe in a version of Marx's Theory Of History. Where we are on a historical track that cannot be changed that leads to an inevitable conclusion.

[bobloblaw]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

The 2012 campaign. Booing God and Israel. Running away from white blue collar workers. Some conservatives say the 4-5 million whites who stayed home were conservatives who didnt like Romney. More likely they were white blue collar workers who didnt like Obama and felt abandon by the Dems but didnt support the GOP.

Does that describe you?  If so, get lost and go try to reform the Democrats to be a party more to your liking instead of what you're doing now in the GOP (i.e., ruin THEIR electoral prospects, not ours).

This is what I like about you, you recognize what the parties are supposed to be. I wish that more Rockefeller type Republicans would stay in the GOP instead of infecting the Democrats with their cultural elitism.

While I strongly object to the notion that being a pro-civil rights, pro-business Republican in the classical "Rockefeller" sense is inherently elitist (I live in a quaint town in Maine full of "Rockefeller Republicans" [it's majority Republican registration but voted Obama twice], and I wouldn't describe these people as elitist in any way), it does bother me that there seems to be a growing movement of ... well, let's just say it: culturally intolerant people ... who seem hell-bent on fully transforming the GOP into a full-fledged nativist party of "real Americans."  It's disturbing.

We dont need you in the GOP

Yeah you do.

Unless you want the GOP to be locked out of the EC permanently.

Rovckefeller GOPers add nothing and are nonplayers in states like VA, CO, FL and OH. Who cares about CT, NY and RI?

Plenty of Rockefeller Republicans in the Chicago area. If the GOP could turn the suburbs back in their favor while keeping downstate solid Republican as well, they would be looking at Illinois being lean R.

It would take more than that. In 1988, GHW Bush won 35% in the city of Chicago. So winning 70% in Dupage, Will and Lake wont cut it if you still win 20% in Chicago.

[bobloblaw]

Reagan 84, Bush 88, and Bush 04 won 60% of whites. It's not new for 60% of whites to vote GOP. The only difference is that 60% of whites doesn't win elections anymore.

The GOP will routinely get 70% of the white vote in 20 years. Their political survival will require it.

You'll sound more believable when you can give reasons other than "Democrats will be the party that will hate white people and pander to minorities! It's true, I said so!" or "Republicans will just be the white man's party, they'll never attempt minority outreach! It's true, I said so!"

Just saying.

The 2012 campaign. Booing God and Israel. Running away from white blue collar workers. Some conservatives say the 4-5 million whites who stayed home were conservatives who didnt like Romney. More likely they were white blue collar workers who didnt like Obama and felt abandon by the Dems but didnt support the GOP.

Does that describe you?  If so, get lost and go try to reform the Democrats to be a party more to your liking instead of what you're doing now in the GOP (i.e., ruin THEIR electoral prospects, not ours).

This is what I like about you, you recognize what the parties are supposed to be. I wish that more Rockefeller type Republicans would stay in the GOP instead of infecting the Democrats with their cultural elitism.

While I strongly object to the notion that being a pro-civil rights, pro-business Republican in the classical "Rockefeller" sense is inherently elitist (I live in a quaint town in Maine full of "Rockefeller Republicans" [it's majority Republican registration but voted Obama twice], and I wouldn't describe these people as elitist in any way), it does bother me that there seems to be a growing movement of ... well, let's just say it: culturally intolerant people ... who seem hell-bent on fully transforming the GOP into a full-fledged nativist party of "real Americans."  It's disturbing.

We dont need you in the GOP

Yeah you do.

Unless you want the GOP to be locked out of the EC permanently.

Rovckefeller GOPers add nothing and are nonplayers in states like VA, CO, FL and OH. Who cares about CT, NY and RI?

Plenty of Rockefeller Republicans in the Chicago area. If the GOP could turn the suburbs back in their favor while keeping downstate solid Republican as well, they would be looking at Illinois being lean R.

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