UK General Election 2019 - Election Day and Results Thread

[Intell]

11% swing to the Tories in Houghton and Sunderland South (still a 3,115 majority, but very worrying for other seats).

Brexit Party vote was 2 times the Labour majority there, might even have flipped otherwise. Brexit Party may save Labour a few seats by the looks of things.

I doubt that as most Brexit voters in Labour seats were Labour voters.

They most definitely were.

[Intell]

With Blyth Valley gain for tories, this is looking grim outside of urban areas.

[Intell]

Tories+Brexit combined close to labour in Blaenau Gwent!

[Intell]

Hot take: Labour would have lost these Northern seats no matter what candidate was leader. Corbyn might have stopped more urban middle class areas swing hard to labour, and that may have been his failure.

[Intell]

Laura Pidcock losing is devastating, worst defeat in the elections fyck me.

[Intell]

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1205317958316253189

https://mobile.twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1205318275174981635

The ethnic diversity is misleading, the tories have gained amongst non-muslim BME voters.

[Intell]

Anyone have a narrative summary of the NI results? I see the changes, but don't really know the best way to interpret the vote totals nor what those changes mean

Huge blow to the DUP (a double blow as they lose their influence in Westminster as well, meaning there will more likely than not be a border in the Irish Sea), losing North and South Belfast as well as falling back in their strongholds like Antrim and failing to take Hermon's old seat of North Down. They just held on W Belfast, but that itself is pyrhic as it suggests that seat is vulnerable outside of the specific context that led to it falling in 2010 (i.e. Iris Robinson having an affair with a teenager).

Also very bad for Sinn Fein, who despite their pick-up in N Belfast had their majorities in South Down and West Belfast cut and lost Foyle (Derry) to the SDLP's Collum Eastwood.

Really it's great news all across the board in that province, assuming nobody here is in love with NI's squabbling pair of ultra-corrupt ex-paramilitaries. Some evidence of significant cross-community cooperation to oust the lazy bastards.

West Belfast...., lol jks

[Intell]

Also center left Ed Miliband hang on to his seat by a slimmest of margins, going down 22% since last election and he only kept his seat because of CON/BREXIT PARTY non-tactical voting

Because people don't vote for their local MPs they vote based on the national party

Mostly true, but still candidates matter

They don't unless you're a minor party candidate.

[Intell]

That age divide though.

[Intell]

That age divide though.

It's particularly shocking when you realize how many of those 65+ voters must have been voting Labour 20-30 years ago.

The age divide is worse than in 2017.

In 2017

18-24:

Labour: 62%
Con: 27%
LD: 5%

65+:

Conservative: 61%
Labour: 25%
LD: 7%


https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election

The 2017 election showed how there was still a class divide within different age groups as well. I wonder what the 2019 one will show

[Intell]

Gender gap seems to have widened as my understanding barely existed in 2017 so looks like Labour only suffered minor losses amongst women but massive amongst men.  If only men could vote, it would be over 400 seats for Tories while if only women probably similar to 2017 with Tories being right on or close to line.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election

Yes, men were +4 tory while women were +1 tory in 2017.

But look at this gender divide by age in 2017.

18-24: Men: +16 Labour
18-24 Women: +55 Labour!

(+39 women labour vote vs men)

25-34 Men: +24 Labour
25-34 Women: +34 Labour

(+10 women)

35-54 Men: +2 Labour
35-54 Women: +9 Labour

(+7 women)

55+ Men: -26 Labour
55+ Women: -31 Labour

(-6 Women)

[Intell]

Anyone have a Labour+Green (+SNP) swing vs a Con+Brex swing, that shall be an interesting map.

[Intell]

Here are the constituencies shaded by margin:




And here they are shaded by the winners' percentage of the vote:




The safest Labour seat was - for the fourth time running - Liverpool Walton, won by 74.8% (slightly down from 77.1% last time, but otherwise the best 'best result' Labour has had since 1979); twenty-four Labour constituencies were won by margins greater than 50% (down from thirty-four last time; their all-time high was, predictably, sixty-six in 1997)

The safest Tory seat was South Holland & the Deepings, won by 62.7% (the best 'best result' they've had since 1964, or since 1955 if you don't count Northern Irish seats); thirteen Tory seats were won by more than 50% (the most since 1935; the previous post-War highs were 1955 & 1959, with ten apiece)

The safest Liberal seat was Bath, won by 23.6% - the first time in living memory that their safest seat was in the South, and the second time it was in England (Westmorland & Lonsdale took the top prize in 2015); it's otherwise been in Scotland or Wales, including Orkney & Zetland eight times in a row from 1955 through 1979

The safest Nationalist constituency was Aberdeen North, won by 33.9% (in comparison, Dundee East was taken by 39.8% in 2015)

Liverpool Walton voted for Brexit, yet the swings in Liverpool and surrounding areas was much less to the conservatives than in similar seats in the north east, or the red wall.

[Intell]

Liverpool Walton voted for Brexit, yet the swings in Liverpool and surrounding areas was much less to the conservatives than in similar seats in the north east, or the red wall.

Birmingham as a whole narrowly voted Leave (50%), but saw relatively small swings to the Tories (especially in comparison to the Black Country right next door).

Liverpool as a whole voted 58% to remain, so the weak swings there are a little more predictable; in general, cities that Labour's dominated only in the last few decades (Leeds, Birmingham, etc.) have shuffled back at a much slower pace than the longtime Labour strongholds (Barnsley, Sheffield, Hull, Black Country, mining seats, etc.). Certainly Liverpool doesn't seem very keen to forgive the Tories for the tough times of the 1980s.

Bury South, Leave: 54.5%
Labour: -10.2%

Wolverhampton Southwest, Leave: 54.6%
Labour: -5.1%

Blackburn, Leave: 53.7%
Labour: -4.8%

Salford and Eccless, Leave: 53.6%
Labour: -8.7%

Meanwhile Liverpool Walton

Leave: 53.8%
Labour: -1.0%